The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 39 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Baker: Republican DAs reduce young Black male all-cause mortality by 7%
“There's a study that is uncontested that when you elect a Republican DA, all cause mortality for young black men in that city drops by seven percent.”
Baker: Zohran Mamdani will almost certainly win NYC mayoral election
“Unless Adams or Cuomo pulls out, he's almost certainly going to win.”
Baker: Software coder job openings are higher today than a year ago
“There are, you know, there are more job openings for software coders today than there were a year ago. There's more demand for coders, and that is the kind of in the epicenter of the blast zone.”
Baker: CoreWeave is profitably renting 2020 Nvidia Ampere GPUs through 2029
“Corweave said that they are renting Amperes at economically profitable rates today for 2029. So an Ampere that came out in 2020 is going to have a nine-year life, and I think that's what Nvidia sees”
Gavin Baker: Nvidia trades at low to mid-teens multiple of real earnings
“And, you know, these, the Nvidia of the tech bubble is Cisco and it traded a hundred times forward earnings. And, you know, I think Nvidia is probably at a low teens, multiple of kind of low to mid teens, multiple of real earnings.”
Gavin Baker: ROIC for tech companies has risen alongside AI investments
“You can calculate some, you know, something called return on invested capital, and it's actually gone up. Since they started making these AI investments.”
Baker: Grok 4 performed twice as well as competitors on ARC-AGI II
“And so RKGI-II, it has not seen the questions before, and it did roughly twice as good as, you know, the state-of-the-art Google Open AI and anthropic models.”
Baker: China's power supply allows AI chip designs the US cannot support
“China, they do have more electricity. They can do things that we cannot do here in America.”
Baker predicts multiple independent frontier AI labs will be acquired in 2025
“And then I do think you will see a lot of these frontier AI labs that are independent be acquired.”
Baker predicts frontier AI labs will stop releasing leading-edge models publicly
“As far as a specific prediction for 25 because I don't know when that will happen, I think you will see the frontier labs stop releasing their leading-edge models to prevent knowledge distillation and their IP effectively being stolen.”
Baker predicts high bandwidth memory manufacturers will be 2025's best asset
“I think the companies that make high bandwidth memory, going back to, we're gonna run out of compute. It's actually a pretty shocking stat. High bandwidth memory is a bigger part of Nvidia's cogs on GPUs than Taiwan Semi is. And today there's two companies tha…”
Baker: Microsoft's largest GPU cluster remains smaller than xAI's Memphis cluster
“The best information I have is the largest cluster Microsoft has after panicking. It's still smaller than XAI's cluster in Memphis.”
Baker: xAI's Grok 3 should take the AI lead in early 2025
“Grok three should take the lead if scaling laws hold in January or February.”
Baker: Data centers are repurposing private jet engines for power
“Residuals for private jets are, like, extremely strong these days. And a big part of the reason is people are taking jet engines off old planes and repurposing them as turbines to power data centers.”
Baker: Micron locks in 50% of revenue with four customer agreements
“They announced that they have these SCAs, these supply chain agreements, That have a floor and a ceiling for prices with an increasingly large group of large customers. And this covers essentially 50% of their revenue, I think, with just four customers.”
Gavin Baker: Baillie Gifford was forced to sell SpaceX for regulatory reasons
“Bailey Gifford was forced to sell SpaceX last year for regulatory reasons.”
Baker: Zipline reduced maternal mortality in African regions by 90% to 95%
“They have cut The maternal mortality rate in some of these African countries by 90 to 95%.”
Baker: Anthropic was EBIT positive in the most recent quarter
“They were EBIT positive per the Wall Street Journal in the most recent quarter”
Baker: Cambridge City Council voted to disable gunshot detectors
“I think that the Cambridge city council voted to turn off gunshot detectors two days ago.”
Baker: An Nvidia H100 GPU is currently operational in space
“There is a working H-one-hundred, an NVIDIA H-one-hundred GPU in space today. Andre Karpathy both trained a model on and used for inference.”
Baker: Grok 4 scored 44.4% on Humanity's Last Exam versus GPT-5's 42%
“GroK IV when it came out and it is improved. Since, since its release roughly a month ago, was at 44.4%, and GPT five was at 42.”
Gavin Baker: xAI has the largest Nvidia Blackwell cluster
“They have the largest Blackwell cluster.”
Baker: Tariffs are traditionally a Democratic position that Clinton and Obama ran on
“Tariffs are traditionally a democratic policy position. You know, Clinton ran on them. Obama ran on them to be a slightly lesser degree.”
Baker: Expected foreign retaliation against U.S. tariffs has not occurred
“We have not seen retaliation, which I think in some ways, you know, validates some of their points of views, just that we do have a lot of leverage and we are using it and other countries are charging America much higher tariffs than we're charging them.”
Baker: Next-gen AI models will be trained on Blackwell GPUs
“The next models we see, you know, Grok five, you know, O five from open AI, whatever they're going to call Jim, the next Gemini. They will be trained on Blackwell, and I think that will be a really big step function.”
Baker: US is at a disadvantage to China in electrical generation
“If we do not significantly increase kind of domestic energy production and electricity generation, You know, we are already at a disadvantage to China, and I do think we want to close that kind of electrical generation gap as quickly as we can.”
Baker predicts institutional private equity funds will buy professional sports teams
“It feels like that market is about to be institutionalized and funds are going to start buying pro sports teams.”
Baker: Elon Musk is building a $10B solar plant in Texas
“Elon's building a ten billion dollar new solar manufacturing plant in Texas.”
Baker: OpenAI's ChatGPT-5 router was broken for its first 16 hours
“I mean, in all fairness to OpenAI, the router that kind of auto selects the right model was apparently broken for the first kind of. 12 or 16 hours of the model's release. It wasn't working.”
Baker: 2% privatized Soviet farmland produced majority of nation's food
“Towards the end of the Soviet Union, they could not produce enough food using kind of socialist systems. So they let two percent of the acreage in the Soviet Union kind of like be, you know, more entrepreneurial and self-organized. And that two percent of the …”
Baker: U.S. tax receipts topped out at 18-19% GDP under Obama
“Even when Obama controlled the house, the Senate, and was the most popular democratic president of our lifetime, I don't think federal government tax receipts has a percentage of GDP got above 18, 19%.”
Baker: OpenAI explored pricing initial agents at $2K to $20K monthly
“OpenAI was talking about pricing their first agents at 2000 to 20,000 dollars a month.”
Baker predicts Google Cloud will not lead 2025 cloud dollar revenue growth
“Well, it probably won't be Google, because if they had the largest dollar gain, it would mean they were growing at an, at insane rates”
Baker: MicroStrategy's core business generates only $400M in annual revenue
“But the, but his, the underlying business that, you know, pays the interest expense on the debt only does four hundred million dollars a year in revenue, and it's, you know, high gross margin revenue.”
Gavin Baker notes SEC rules allow mutual funds up to 15% private allocations
“T. Rowe, they all can, per SEC rules, allocate up to 15% of their funds into privates.”
Baker: US-Vietnam trade deal includes carve-out for Chinese trans-shipments
“And one of the trade deals that has been finalized is Vietnam, and there's a special carve-out for goods that were trans-shipped from China through Vietnam, so they are clearly focused on China more than almost in, you know, any other country, rightly or wrong…”
Gavin Baker: 3% of US trade and 40% of European trade uses Suez Canal
“Three percent of America's trade goes through the Suez Canal, 40% of Europe's trade.”