The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 11 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Baker: Anthropic is profitable and currently generating cash
“Anthropic is generating cash, and like, they kind of, this fact is, I would say, kind of known in the world, and I've actually never really spoken to Anthropic, but it just, you know, it feels like there are enough signals And then if you're to read the tea le…”
Gavin Baker: Anthropic will end the year with over $100B revenue
“They're going to end this year well over a hundred billion.”
Baker predicts the US will hit 5% real GDP growth soon
“My most contrary belief, so I think that America over the next, at some point over the next four years, will print at least one year of greater than five percent GDP growth, real GDP growth.”
Baker: Starship will replace transoceanic air cargo within ten years
“Yeah, there will be no more Trans-Pacific or Trans-Atlantic cargo flights. I think in five, six, seven, eight, 10 years, you're gonna need a big Starship fleet to accomplish that. But I think the Trans-Atlantic and Trans-Pacific aerospace cargo routes go away.”
Baker predicts orbital compute will become a reality between 2028 and 2030
“Second half of 28 to First half of 20 30 would be my point prediction.”
Gavin Baker: China zero percent likely to build Nvidia rival within five years
“In the next five years, I think zero. I think it's really, really hard.”
Baker: Training a single AI model will cost $100B within three years
“It's going to cost a hundred billion dollars to train a model in two or three years which I think is a realistic estimate.”
Baker: xAI will release Grok 4.7 in a few weeks
“And this is still a relatively small model. It's one .1 trillion parameter models. A larger model, Grok 4.7, that should be significantly more capable, is coming out, you know, in a few short weeks.”
Baker: World will run mostly on solar power within 50 years
“I think it is highly likely that in my lifetime, the world just runs on solar. Like if you just, you know, we all know compound interest is the greatest force on earth, but if you just look at the rate at which photovoltaic cell efficiency is compounding, batt…”