The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Baker: Zohran Mamdani will almost certainly win NYC mayoral election
“Unless Adams or Cuomo pulls out, he's almost certainly going to win.”
Baker predicts multiple independent frontier AI labs will be acquired in 2025
“And then I do think you will see a lot of these frontier AI labs that are independent be acquired.”
Baker predicts frontier AI labs will stop releasing leading-edge models publicly
“As far as a specific prediction for 25 because I don't know when that will happen, I think you will see the frontier labs stop releasing their leading-edge models to prevent knowledge distillation and their IP effectively being stolen.”
Baker: Anthropic was EBIT positive in the most recent quarter
“They were EBIT positive per the Wall Street Journal in the most recent quarter”