The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 62 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 10 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gavin Baker: Anthropic will end the year with over $100B revenue
“They're going to end this year well over a hundred billion.”
Baker: Banning open-source AI means losing the AI race to China
“If we ban open source, if we let this control be centralized, we will lose AI, we will lose geopolitics, we will lose everything to China. It's just that Simple.”
Baker: Zohran Mamdani will almost certainly win NYC mayoral election
“Unless Adams or Cuomo pulls out, he's almost certainly going to win.”
Baker predicts Trump will negotiate a deal detrimental to Russia and Ukraine
“I think Trump is going to be a lot tougher on Putin than people think. And I think he's going to get a very, very a deal that's very, very bad for Russia and Ukraine.”
Baker predicts major tech companies will acquire all sports broadcasting rights
“Just the fact that all of the biggest tech companies are so happy with the sports kind of rights that they bought, they're gonna buy them all.”
Baker predicts the US will hit 5% real GDP growth soon
“My most contrary belief, so I think that America over the next, at some point over the next four years, will print at least one year of greater than five percent GDP growth, real GDP growth.”
Baker: China will fail to keep pace with U.S. AI post-Blackwell
“But, you know, Nvidia's Blackwell chip comes out next year. You're gonna have new chips from AMD, new ASICs from Broadcom. And I think at that point, it is not going to be possible for them to keep up anymore.”
Baker: Starship will replace transoceanic air cargo within ten years
“Yeah, there will be no more Trans-Pacific or Trans-Atlantic cargo flights. I think in five, six, seven, eight, 10 years, you're gonna need a big Starship fleet to accomplish that. But I think the Trans-Atlantic and Trans-Pacific aerospace cargo routes go away.”
Baker: Frontier models will capture 65 to 85 percent of value
“I think a very plausible outcome is one in which frontier tokens Or 65 to 85% of the economic value. Open source tokens are like 80% of the volume, and that's good for everyone, and everyone wins.”
Baker: Anthropic reaching $400B to $500B revenue by 2027 is realistic
“I think four to five, I think four to five hundred billion is within the zone of like realistic and achievable.”
Gavin Baker: AI will be the defining issue in upcoming elections
“AI is, I think, going to be the defining political issue of the midterms, and for sure the next presidential election.”
Baker: Enterprises will adopt composable multi-model 'Council of LLMs' architectures
“I profoundly believe the future is composable models, and you're going to every enterprise, You're going to have what Andre Karpathy called the Council of LLNs.”
Gavin Baker: DRAM will be 30-40% of hyperscaler capex next year
“Memory is DRAM is probably going to be 30 to 40% of all hyperscaler capex next year.”
Gavin Baker: Reusable Starship will launch a gigawatt of compute for $5B
“When Starship is reusable, it's going to cost five billion dollars to put a gigawatt of compute into space.”
Baker: AI GPUs will remain in active use for 7-12 years
“We're going to be using GPUs for Seven years, 10 years, 12 years, and that's great because it lowers the cost to finance them, which makes this AI revolution more financeable.”
Gavin Baker: Post-IPO lockup expirations will release hundreds of billions in demand
“So this is going to be hundreds of billions of dollars of new late stage demand that is coming back to the market after kind of being out.”
Baker: Total LLM ARR could reach $200B-$400B by end of year
“It's not hard to see 203 104 hundred billion dollars of ARR at the end of this year at a high margin.”
Baker predicts orbital compute will become a reality between 2028 and 2030
“Second half of 28 to First half of 20 30 would be my point prediction.”
Baker: $1B in smuggled Nvidia chips won't alter US-China AI race
“A billion dollars worth of GPUs. It's not enough to really move the needle, you know, even if they are Blackwell's the latest and greatest, you know, it's better than having none if you're China. But I mean, it's just, you know, it's not like a 10, twenty bill…”
Baker: Stock market would drop significantly if Trump fires Fed Chair Powell
“I do think the market would go down quite a bit more if Trump did fire Powell.”
Baker: U.S. debt interest will surpass Medicare and defense spending within years
“If the deficit kind of continues at current levels and we were to refinance the debt at the prices that you know, David was talking about. You know, it's only a few years before spending on interest is significantly larger than spending on Medicare and Medicai…”
Baker: AI labs without major distribution partnerships must build browsers
“And if you're not going to strike a partnership with one of those distribution channels, you will eventually need to do your own browser”
Baker: Exporting Nvidia H20 chips deters China from creating rival AI accelerators
“It's a smart decision for America to sell this chip that gives America an advantage in AI and keeps China from developing kind of their own domestic alternatives, which could eventually kind of challenge, you know, Nvidia, AMD, you know, other kind of American…”
Gavin Baker: China zero percent likely to build Nvidia rival within five years
“In the next five years, I think zero. I think it's really, really hard.”
Baker predicts Vladimir Putin will be 2025's biggest political loser
“I think Putin is going to lose bigly.”
Baker predicts Xi Jinping will begin decoupling China from Putin in 2025
“I just think Xi is going to begin decoupling from Putin.”
Baker predicts a massive shortage of GPUs and compute capacity in 2025
“We're going to run out of GPUs, accelerators, compute in 2025, the same way we did in 23.”
Baker predicts government service providers will be 2025's biggest business losers
“Government service providers. You do not want to have the United States government at any level as over 35% of your revenue.”
Baker predicts traditional automotive manufacturers will entirely lose their Chinese business
“They're going to lose their Chinese business because they don't make competitive products anymore. If there's not massive protectionism, and we're seeing signs of that, they'll be caught between Tesla and the Chinese OEMs. And I think the only way that this do…”
Baker predicts multiple independent frontier AI labs will be acquired in 2025
“And then I do think you will see a lot of these frontier AI labs that are independent be acquired.”
Baker predicts frontier AI labs will stop releasing leading-edge models publicly
“As far as a specific prediction for 25 because I don't know when that will happen, I think you will see the frontier labs stop releasing their leading-edge models to prevent knowledge distillation and their IP effectively being stolen.”
Baker predicts wokeism will decline while socialist economic policies gain traction
“Wokeism and progressivism will decouple from socialism. I think wokeism and progressivism You know, we'll be on a declining trend, but socialism in terms of the government.”
Baker predicts high bandwidth memory manufacturers will be 2025's best asset
“I think the companies that make high bandwidth memory, going back to, we're gonna run out of compute. It's actually a pretty shocking stat. High bandwidth memory is a bigger part of Nvidia's cogs on GPUs than Taiwan Semi is. And today there's two companies tha…”
Baker predicts Trump and Xi will reach a trade deal isolating Putin
“I think Trump and Xi both want a deal. I think there's a deal to be done that leaves Putin out in the cold, as I referenced.”
Baker predicts enterprise application software will face immense pain in 2025
“Enterprise application software, I think is going to be in a lot of pain.”
Baker predicts AI progress per quarter will exceed yearly progress in 2023-2024
“I think AI is going to make more progress per quarter in 2025 than it did per year in 23 and 24.”
Baker: BRICS nations will never replace the U.S. dollar
“I do not think the BRICS will ever be able to replace the dollar.”
Baker: Grok 3 will prove if AI scaling laws are hitting walls
“Grok three is a big card and will resolve the this question of whether or not we're hitting a wall.”
Baker: AI has another innovation decade even if training scaling breaks
“Even if scaling laws for training break, we have another decade of innovation ahead of us.”
Baker: xAI's Grok 3 should take the AI lead in early 2025
“Grok three should take the lead if scaling laws hold in January or February.”
Baker: Training a single AI model will cost $100B within three years
“It's going to cost a hundred billion dollars to train a model in two or three years which I think is a realistic estimate.”
Baker: Human language will become the dominant programming language within a year
“But I think next year, human language will be the dominant programming language.”
Baker: Starship will carry 100+ metric tons to orbit under $2M variable cost
“Once you do that, they should be able to send over a hundred metric tons to orbit at a variable cost of under two million dollars per public data.”
Baker: Capitalism Will Always Value Human Intelligence Over AI
“Capitalism, there, it's, there's gonna be a use for the most computationally efficient intelligences on planet Earth, and those are human intelligences.”
Baker: Nvidia might reach the frontier of open-source AI models
“I think you might see Nvidia at the open source frontier.”
Baker: xAI will release Grok 4.7 in a few weeks
“And this is still a relatively small model. It's one .1 trillion parameter models. A larger model, Grok 4.7, that should be significantly more capable, is coming out, you know, in a few short weeks.”