The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gavin Baker: Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today
“I think Anthropic is worth three trillion dollars today, and it's very important.”
Gavin Baker: America is Earth's only vaguely successful multicultural society
“America is awesome, and we're the only vaguely successful multicultural society on planet Earth.”
Baker: Competitors withhold custom AI ASICs from benchmarks because they would lose
“These other ASICs. . Are not being submitted for benchmarks. They're not in the CB analysis inference max. They're not in MLperf. I think the reason they're not being submitted is they will lose.”
Baker: Zohran Mamdani is one of the most talented politicians alive
“I think the reason they're ascendant is Zoran Mamdani. I think he is one of the most talented politicians I've ever seen in my lifetime.”
Baker: Imperial presidency is preferable to an imperial judiciary
“And the executive branch, which is at least elected and accountable, I would rather have an imperial president who we can judge and vote out of office than an imperial judiciary.”
Baker: Political involvement is not the best use of Elon Musk's talents
“I think the American party is a great idea. I just don't know that it is the highest and best use of Elon's talents at this moment in time with what's happening with AI. And just, you know, to the extent Elon is a friend of the pod, I just think staying focuse…”
Baker: CoreWeave runs large GPU clusters as well as anyone
“And I do think core weave runs these big GPU clusters as well as anyone. And there aren't that many people on planet earth who can run them well.”
Baker: Musk saved Nvidia during Blackwell delays by proving Hopper cluster scale
“I actually think you can argue that Elon doing that in a lot of ways kind of saved Nvidia from a tough six month period when Blackwell was delayed because everyone who was waiting for Blackwell and thought it was impossible to make a 100,000 hoppers coherent r…”
Gavin Baker: There is no good reason for companies to remain private longer
“I don't think there is actually a good reason to stay private longer.”
Gavin Baker: Apple's AI products are terrible from a user perspective
“I'm just shocked at their inaction and ineptitude and AI, how bad the products are from a user perspective. I mean, they're terrible.”
Gavin Baker: Rhetoric about a US-European alliance schism is overblown
“Behind the scenes, a lot of this rhetoric about, you know, the U.S. And the European schism is overblown, and we're still helping them.”
Baker asserts the NBA has been terribly managed as a professional league
“The NBA has been terribly managed.”
Baker estimates a 25% chance the US government holds alien proof
“I would say 25. I would take the over on the 20.”
Baker: MGM Resorts offers the best risk/reward among pitched trades
“From a pure risk award perspective, I thought MGM was the best. Your downside is really capped because of the Barry Diller bid, and then you have Japan and Dubai as, I think, very valuable future sources of value.”