The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
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Loeb: DOJ threatened to investigate Trump if he commuted Ross Ulbricht
“On the last day of Trump's 45th term, We were certain that he was going to get out, and the Justice Department, for whatever reason, said, if you commute his sentence, we're going to go after you, to the President. So he, as I understand he withdrew the commut…”
Loeb: Humans will always be needed in capital allocation despite AI
“Maybe, maybe you can theorize that there will be agents that will sit at Andreessen Horowitz and whoever else, your funds, but I think the human will always have to be there”
Loeb: Solely valuation-based shorting is risky due to retail squeezes
“I think one thing that we've avoided is kind of evaluation, a solely valuation based approach. There's a, I've just seen I've seen too many people get run over by shorts that have dumb valuations, but they get captured on, you know, Reddit or one of these othe…”
Loeb: Third Point has been shorting homebuilder-related equities
“We had, ah, a really strong view on home builders from last year that, ah, there were two things going on. It wasn't just It wasn't just rates, mortgage spreads that were depressing housing prices, that home prices, that the home building industry was first st…”
Dan Loeb: NVIDIA is absolutely undervalued based on multi-year earnings
“Yeah, absolutely. On earnings over the next two or three years.”
Loeb: Investors could be economically or technologically illiterate before the GFC
“You could be technologically illiterate or just say, I don't do it. And you could also be even more or less, you know, up until the GFC, I think you could be more or less economically illiterate and make a lot of money.”
Loeb: Third Point is investing outside tech in adaptable management teams
“We're investing Outside of tech into companies that have you know, some great, well, first of all, it also comes back to the management because we can't really just look at a product or a technology and say, oh, this is going to be it forever. So we really loo…”
Dan Loeb: Short-side investing is fun when uncovering fraudulent companies
“I mean, investing is fun, and particularly on the short side. I mean, there's so much humor in it when you, Detect these companies, especially in the nineties. I mean, it was really unsupervised. There were some incredibly fraudulent companies out there, and i…”
Loeb: Identifying 10-to-20-year business moats is harder today than in the past
“And it's, it is harder now. I don't think we can, I don't know that we can really go out, you know, 10 or 20 years ago. By the way, I think we deluded ourselves earlier, because I think if you ask people about the moat around, you know, IBM, or, you know, some…”
Loeb: Third Point avoids taking board seats to maintain liquidity
“That was one, I think we learned not to go on boards anymore because it restricts your ability to be liquid”
Loeb: Third Point would have made $4B if it kept Enphase stock
“We're also early investors in, in end phase. And we Sold some stock on the IPO, and then took a tax hit, and I think sold it under a dollar, and the stock, I think had we stayed on, would have made four billion dollars.”