The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 5,135 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 50 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Rabois: US educational metrics uniformly declined since Department of Education's 1979 creation
“Every single educational stat has got worse in the United States since the department was created.”
Lafont: Anthropic captured 70% of public SaaS net new ARR in Q1
“I think, and this is order of magnitude correct, that Anthropic in Q-one added 70% of the net new ARR in the SaaS industry, right, defined by public SaaS companies, right?”
Robbins: 60% of people using drugs or therapy for depression see zero improvement
“60% of the people who use drugs or therapy to try and get out of depression, make zero improvements.”
Carlson: Nearly 50 million undocumented immigrants live in the US
“The real number is not twenty million, it's closer to fifty million, I think that's true illegals in the United States.”
Calacanis: 80% to 90% of LA rioters are not immigrants
“I can tell you it's contained, and those 80, 90% of those people are not the immigrants.”
Carlson claims no U.S. intel shows Iran assembling a nuclear weapon
“There's no American intelligence, this is a statement of fact, that suggests Iran is in the process of assembling a nuclear weapon or within months of doing so.”
Isaacman: NASA's SLS rocket costs $4.5B per launch and faces an expiration date
“This rocket built on 60 year old technology that's four and a half billion dollars of launch has an expiration date.”
Palihapitiya: Anthropic AI safety warnings coincide with fundraising rounds
“It seems that these safety warnings tend to be pretty coincidental with key fundraising moments in Anthropik's journey.”
Sacks: Biden administration AI policies undermined US competitiveness against China
“And the policies under the Biden administration were doing the opposite of all those things.”
Sacks: Biden AI policy was controlled by six staffers with zero Silicon Valley experience
“There was a group of very powerful staffers in the Biden administration, about half a dozen people who kind of controlled AI policy. And the interesting thing is none of them have ever worked in Silicon Valley.”
DOGE sampling found non-citizens registered to vote and actually voting
“We have sampled a handful of states and in those handful of states we found people registered to vote, and we have found people who actually voted”
Gracias: DOGE voter investigations yielded arrests in Florida and New York
“We had already three arrests here in Florida, actually, and one indictment in New York.”
Gracias: One DOGE engineer finds 10 to 20 non-citizen voters daily
“It takes an engineer about a day to find 10 to 20 cases per state in sampling.”
Gracias: Biden administration raised citizenship database API fees, deterring states
“In the Biden administration, they raised the price, when I think about a dollar, an API call, to three dollars and change the API call, and all the states stop using it.”
Shapiro: Qatar gave Hamas $2B and U.S. universities $6.3B recently
“They gave two billion dollars to Hamas over the course of the last several years. And have funded the American university system to tune a 6.3 billion dollars for a country that has a grand total of 2.6 million citizens.”
Shapiro: All net U.S. taxes are paid by the top income quintile
“All net taxes in this country are paid by the top quintile, all of them, because below the top quintile, you're getting as much back from the government or more than you are paying into the system.”
Germany spent $500B on renewables, yielding less power at triple cost
“So Germany spent a half a trillion dollars, five hundred billion dollars on the quote, air quotes, transition to green energy. They were transitioning to wind and solar. Half a trillion, five hundred billion dollars. They today produce 20% less electricity, an…”
Oil and gas is the largest funder of US coastal restoration
“The largest funder of coastal restoration in this country is the oil and gas industry you know, here in the Gulf.”
Chamath: Trump reduced illegal US border crossings to zero
“I'm just saying getting the illegal crossings to zero and he's done that.”
Sacks: Over 80% of Crimeans poll in favor of being part of Russia
“And if you look at what the people of Crimea want, and there's been a lot of Western polling on this, there's been man on the street interviews by NBC, the people of Crimea by something like over 80% say they want to be part of Russia.”
Sacks: Ukraine has canceled elections, press freedom, and imprisoned political opponents
“They cancel elections, they cancel freedom of the press, they cancel freedom of religion. Zelensky's political opponents, their assets have been seized, they've been in prison.”
Summers: US markets are currently trading like an emerging market country
“We are trading like an emerging market country right now.”
Sacks: Nearly every country except China seeks new U.S. trade deals
“And now basically every country in the world, except for China, Is coming to Washington seeking to negotiate a new trade deal for the United States on better terms for the US.”
Summers: US made zero tariff reductions during China's 2000 WTO entry
“We had given them MFN status 15 years before. No one. They had MFN status. They had it for 15 years. There was not a single reduction in a barrier to Chinese trade. So the way in which you're describing it is just, bears no resemblance to what it was.”
Chamath: Stacey Abrams received $2 billion in federal funding in 30 days
“It turned out that in that same period, while we were going through that rigmarole, Stacey Abrams got two billion dollars after 30 days.”
Sacks: Left-wing activists are firebombing Tesla dealerships to depress sales
“You have crazy leftists firebombing Tesla dealerships painting swastikas on Tesla cars, accosting Tesla drivers. Okay. Creating violence and chaos and trying to depress Tesla sales.”
Gracias: DOGE found 2.4M questionable non-citizen Social Security entries
“This is about 5.4 million people total. There were about 1.2 million people that the status is marked as unknown, and about 1.2 million people that were marked as general parole.”
Gracias: US policy funneled $13B to $15B annually to human traffickers
“You've got to realize we gave 13 to fifteen billion dollars a year to human traffickers.”
Gracias: Social Security Administration issued numbers based on minimal ID
“You get a Social Security number before we got here by walking in office. Answering, you know, with a medical record and a school ID that had your name and your date, the date of birth on it.”
Calacanis: Heritage Foundation found 2,400 illegal voting cases in 40-50 years
“They found, like, 2400 cases over 40 or 50 years. The number of people voting illegally is minuscule.”
Chamath: Trump administration does not care about stock market performance
“The Trump administration does not care about the stock market.”
Shapiro: DOGE is avoiding means-tested welfare, the main national debt driver
“The systemic drivers of our national debt are not actually being touched at this point by Doge. I mean, it's the means-tested welfare programs that are really the systemic long-term drivers of our national debt.”
Friedberg: China's 3nm semiconductor technology will reach full production in 2026
“China, one thing that's not talked about, which I'll add in, seems to have developed three nanometer semiconductor manufacturing technology, which is going to go into production in Q three of 20, 25, and will end up being in full production in 20, 26.”
Bryan Johnson: Don't Die Certified found high glyphosate levels in diapers
“We looked at diapers. There was a dangerously high level of glyphosate in diapers.”
Bessent: Yellen's Treasury shortened debt duration to suppress interest rates
“Yeah, look, I thought that it, that when rates were low, you're supposed to turn out rates. Exactly. And instead, the Treasury for the past few years has pulled rates in, and I think part of that was to keep rates lower, that they changed the issuance schedule…”
Chamath: A top Silicon Valley girls' school taught that reading is racist
“In one of the best private schools here in Silicon Valley, they taught the girls, these are girls in the best all girls private school in Silicon Valley, that reading was racist.”
Lutnick: US national balance sheet is worth $500 trillion
“What's our balance sheet worth? I say 500 trillion dollars. The president says a quadrillion. But at 500 trillion or quadrillion, 36 trillion? We're rich.”
Lutnick: Federal government inflates pre-election GDP with spending spikes
“And I'm going to break it out for the last 20 years. And what you're going to see is, Every time the quarter just before an election, all the government spending happens right then and there. It's all of a sudden you have this jump in GDP. Right. Total lie. To…”
Lutnick: $200 billion in PPP funds went to Chinese fraud gangs
“So it was proven that two hundred billion of the 1.2 trillion was going to Chinese Fraud gangs.”
Lutnick: No country practices free trade and US is the least protective
“There is no country in this world that is free trade. Zero. And we are the lowest and the dumbest, because everybody else is higher and more protective.”
Lutnick: Tariffs drove $2 trillion of committed domestic production to US
“Two trillion dollars of committed domestic production coming back because of his tariffs.”
Lutnick says he sold 1,000 $5M investor visas in one day
“And by the way, ah, yesterday I sold a thousand.”
Bessent: Biden-era peacetime spending during economic growth was unprecedented in US history
“Endless spending, but endless spending when we were in, like, solid economic territory, or not in a war, first time ever”
Bessent: Federal spending expanded to 25% of GDP under Biden
“I keep saying the U.S., we don't have a revenue problem. We have a spending problem. Because we are averaging right about 18% revenue. And I'm talking about federal government. Federal government only. We're at about 18%, and Biden administration blew it out, …”
Chamath Palihapitiya: Renewables now generate 95% of all US energy
“Right now, 95% of all of the energy we generate in America is from renewables.”
Jason Calacanis: Corporate leaders are bribing Donald Trump via inauguration donations
“People are bribing Trump, giving him a million dollars to the inauguration to get close to him, to go to Mar-a-Lago, and it looks really bad.”