The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13,205 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 498 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Chamath calls elite American universities "woke madrasas" teaching "virulent poison"
“Our leading educational institutions have really become woke madrasas. They are inculcating kids with just some virulent poison.”
Palihapitiya: Welfare incentivized Black women $92,000 to remain unmarried
“In, you know, black families as an example, the economic incentive to not get married on you know, today dollar adjusted basis was like, 92,000 to a black woman to not get married and have a child.”
Sacks: US made common cause with Ukrainian far-right groups before war
“If you look at U.S. Policy towards Ukraine, we have made common cause with a number of these far-right, ultra-nationalist groups. Frankly, neo-Nazi groups. And this occurred before the current war.”
Mumgaard: CFS expects net energy fusion gain by early 2026
“And we'll start to assemble that machine later this year. And turn it on in this sort of, twenty-twenty-five time frame and get to Q greater than one, more power out than N for the first time probably early twenty-twenty-six.”
Armstrong: SEC settlement offer required delisting all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin
“The settlement option on the table was to essentially delist everything other than Bitcoin, and so that would have been the end of the industry in the US.”
Sacks: US failure to respect spheres of influence caused Ukraine war
“Our foreign policy establishment cannot comprehend that other great powers want a similar Monroe Doctrine. I think that was a huge contributor to the war we have in Ukraine right now.”
Musk: Starlink coverage in Crimea was disabled due to US sanctions
“At the time this happened, the region around, you Crimea was actually turned off. Now, the reason it was turned off was, actually, originally, was because the United States had sanctions and we're not allowed to actually, and that includes Crimea in the sancti…”
Musk: Would have activated Starlink in Crimea if requested by Biden
“If I had received a presidential directive to turn it on, I would have done so, because I do regard the president as the chief executive officer of the country, whether I want that position If I'm not, I still respect the office, and so, if, you know, if we've…”
Musk: China will likely use military force to incorporate Taiwan
“If one is to take China's policy literally, and probably one should then there will be some forceful force will be used for, you know to incorporate Taiwan into China.”
Christie: Donald Trump does not actually believe the 2020 election was stolen
“I believe, given what I know, that Donald Trump does not believe that the election was stolen. That's what I believe from knowing him for 22 years and from being with him in much of the pre-election period and him expressing his very genuine concerns about the…”
Sacks: 70% of the world blames the US equally for Ukraine
“70% of the world's population does not believe this narrative about the Ukraine war. They understand that the U.S. Is at least equally responsible for this war.”
Gerstner: 100% of 2021's thousand unicorns will face down rounds
“Remember we had a thousand unicorns at the end of 2021. And I've said a hundred percent of those are going to do a down round. And we're still in the early stages of that reset to occur.”
Calacanis: Trump will attempt to overturn the government again if given the chance
“Guy has no morality, and he would have overturned the government if he had the chance. And he will do it again.”
Ramaswamy pledges to pardon Trump for current and future J6 indictments
“That's why I've come out and been very vocal about the fact that I would pardon Trump of each of the two indictments that have already been brought. And if the J six indictment is brought against him, I would do the same thing.”
Ramaswamy: Gender dysphoria is a mental health disorder
“Gender dysphoria is what I've said is a mental health disorder.”
Calacanis: FTC Chair Lina Khan is punishing tech for being successful
“I think she is absolutely doing Biden's bidding. With an anti-tech, anti-wealth creation, anti-capitalism, frankly, pro-union punishment. I think this is punishment for tech being too successful.”
Chamath: 60% of unicorns will go to zero, yielding 1.1x overall return
“I think 60% go to zero. Of the remaining 40%, half of them probably return money. And then of the remaining half, half of those maybe get one and a half X. And then you get a geometric distribution from there, which means the blended return of that entire stre…”
Sacks: Fauci's career would have ended if lab-leak role was exposed early
“Because Fauci had funded gain of function research at the Wuhan lab via EcoHealth Alliance. So he knew that if at the beginning of this pandemic, it turned out that he had been partially responsible For the creation of this virus that had now turned into a pan…”
Sacks: Bill Gates admits COVID-19 vaccines do not work
“Even Bill Gates admits now that the vaccine doesn't work. It's too short acting and it doesn't hold up against variants.”
Chamath: COVID-19 vaccine push was a Big Pharma revenue grab
“It was a revenue grab by big pharma plastered with non-scientific thinking from a bunch of people who should have known better.”
Sacks: Gensler and Warren formed an alliance to destroy US crypto
“What's clear is that Gensler and Elizabeth Warren have an alliance to destroy crypto in the US.”
Sacks: Soros's Open Society Foundations foments regime change and revolutions worldwide
“Soros has this thing called the open society foundation, which sounds like it's spreading democracy and liberal values, but in fact is fomenting regime change. All over the world. And he's been sponsoring and funding color revolutions all over the world.”
RFK Jr.: RFK Sr. immediately suspected CIA involvement in JFK's assassination
“My father who believed his, you know, first reaction when his brother was killed was that the CIA had killed him, and in fact, the first three calls he made on that day, and you know, I was home at the time,”
RFK Jr.: CIA ultimately serves corporate interests in oil, coal, and defense
“The CIA is ultimately working for a, for industry like the oil industry, the coal industry, and the military contract.”
RFK Jr.: 2004 NIH study showed hydroxychloroquine obliterates coronavirus
“We knew ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine were working. We knew that since 2004, because the NIH did this study that said hydroxychloroquine obliterates coronavirus.”
RFK Jr.: DTP vaccine killed or injured 1 in 300 kids in US
“It was killing or causing severe brain injury in one out of every 300 kids who got it.”
RFK Jr.: Pharma drugs are America's third leading cause of death
“And also pharmaceutical drugs, the third biggest killer of Americans after cancer and heart attack”
Palihapitiya: Software developers no longer exercise good judgment
“I'm going to say something controversial. I don't think developers anymore have good judgment. Developers get to the answer or they don't get to the answer.”
Sacks: RESTRICT Act allows $1M fine and 20-year prison terms for VPN TikTok access
“What the act provides is that a US citizen using a VPN to access TikTok could theoretically be subjected to a maximum penalty of one million in fines or 20 years in prison or both.”
Sacks: Ukraine war would not have happened with three specific US concessions
“If we had just done those three things, there would have been no war.”
Sacks: Putin seized Crimea in direct retaliation for a U.S.-backed coup
“If you're wondering why Putin seized Crimea, it was in direct retaliation for the coup that we backed in Ukraine in 2014. This is the origin of the conflict.”
Sacks: Hersh report alleging U.S. Nord Stream sabotage is plausible
“I lean towards thinking it's more plausible than not.”
Sacks: Closing NATO's door likely could have avoided the Russia-Ukraine war
“Because there's a good chance we could have avoided This disastrous war if we had just been willing to close NATO's door.”
Calacanis: Microsoft will release an OpenAI search engine impacting Google
“Microsoft, I think is going to release a and there's a prediction as well, a search engine with Open AI, that has a significant impact on Google's franchise.”
Sacks: Twitter's undisclosed moderation is an FTX-level free speech fraud
“This is an FTX level fraud, except that what was stolen here was not customer funds, it was their free speech rights.”
Armstrong: Sam Bankman-Fried likely committed fraud and lied to FTX investors
“I mean, that that's the moment in my mind where he crossed the line into probably committing fraud. And I think he probably lied to users lied to investors.”
Chamath: $600B to $700B of tech VC capital will be destroyed
“About five hundred billion dollars of that trillion from 1819, 20, 21 and 22 is going to be destroyed. We haven't even started to see that yet, right? And then if you factor in another hundred billion or so from older vintages, we're talking about a 600 or 700…”
Palihapitiya predicts up to $750B in venture capital value destruction
“Over these next 10 years, when maybe you have 500 to three quarters of a trillion dollars of value destruction, And it's because you didn't think about portfolio construction properly.”
Sacks: Russia will likely use a tactical nuke if Ukraine retakes Crimea
“With the result that I think is quite likely that the Russians will be willing to use a tactical nuke to prevent their total defeat.”
Sacks: US State Department failed to avoid war by refusing NATO guarantees
“The question is, did the US State Department do everything they could to avoid this war? And my point is, absolutely not. They should have taken this Ukraine issue off the table in writing before the invasion.”
Calacanis: Andreessen Horowitz engaged most in VC token sale flips
“That seems like the firm that did this the most is Andreessen Horowitz.”
US military lags behind China's PLA in implementing artificial intelligence
“The US military is well behind the Chinese People's Liberation Army in the implementation of artificial intelligence.”
Tech firms use anti-military employees as cover for Chinese market access
“There's a lot of companies in Silicon Valley and elsewhere who look at those employees who are ideologically opposed to working with the military and they use them as a smokescreen Pretending that it's principled opposition that drives their decision. When in …”
Lonsdale claims BLM movement ideas caused thousands of additional Black deaths
“There's a lot of truth and positive parts of the BLM movement the last couple years, but it's actually led to thousands more deaths in the black community because of the things that it was pushing. Because of the bad ideas.”
Sacks: The New York Times acts as the woke mob's enforcement wing
“They are the enforcement wing of the woke mob.”
Elon Musk estimates at least 20% of Twitter accounts are bots
“I think it's some number that is probably at least four or five times that number. I'd say at if you did sort of the lowest estimate would be probably 20%. And this is a bunch of quite smart outside firms have done analysis of Twitter and looked at the sort of…”