The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 8,639 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 498 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Jensen Huang: Dario Amodei's $1T AI revenue forecast is conservative
“I think he, I think he's being very conservative. I believe Dario and Anthropica is going to do way better than that.”
Karp: AI will shift economic power from humanities graduates to blue-collar workers
“This technology disrupts humanities trained, largely democratic voters and makes their economic power less, and increases the power, economic power of vocationally trained, working class, often male voters,”
Graham Allison: No evidence Iran was about to attack U.S. or acquire nuclear weapon
“The arguments that were made that that Trump has actually repeated that Iran was about to attack us, I see no evidence for that. That Iran was about to get a nuclear weapon, I see no evidence for that. That Iran was building an ICBM that was going to attack th…”
Pishevar: Iranian regime massacred over 43,000 peaceful protesters in one month
“As you saw last month they massacred over 43,000 Iranians who were just peacefully protesting.”
Michael warns China is stealing US AI models to unguardrail them
“Your models are getting stolen by the Chinese. They're going to unguard rail them and use them against us.”
Emil Michael: Anthropic exec asked Palantir if AI was used in Maduro raid
“After the Maduro raid, one of their execs called Palantir, who we buy themselves through and asked them was our software used in that raid, which is by the way, classified information.”
Emil Michael: Sam Altman urged Pentagon not to label Anthropic a supply-chain risk
“He was trying to protect anthropic to his credit. He was like, don't do, don't call him a supply chain risk. That's bad for the industry. Let me, maybe I can negotiate terms that they'll find acceptable.”
Tracey: Julie K. Brown fabricated quotes in Perversion of Justice
“Even though, for example, I caught her fabricating quotes in her book, Perversion of Justice, which was based on the initial Miami Herald series.”
Tracey: No credible rape allegation ever discovered on Epstein's island
“There's never been a credible allegation of rape ever discovered that that took place on that island”
Tracey: No credible evidence supports core intelligence blackmail claims on Epstein
“That's the crux of the Epstein mythology, and it's been systematically unraveled Included partially by this, the disclosure of more Epstein files, but even prior to January 30th or December 19th, the two productions, there was never any credible evidence for a…”
Sacks: Evidence shows Reid Hoffman lied about his relationship with Epstein
“The evidence shows that he's been bold faced lying. About every aspect of his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein.”
Dr. Oz: CMS fired $200M contractor that produced zero usable code
“There was a company that we fired that had billed us two hundred million dollars, not a single usable line of code”
Dr. Oz estimates $3.5 billion in Los Angeles hospice healthcare fraud
“Just LA County alone, just in hospice and home health care, we believe it's about three and a half billion dollars.”
Dr. Oz: Audit reveals California improperly billed $1.5B for undocumented immigrant healthcare
“We've audited him now. This data's coming out this week. We have now found over one and a half billion dollars of money spent wrongly. We've audited it. They're not even arguing. One and a half billion dollars from that California charged the federal governmen…”
Rogers: UK speech arrests in 2023 exceeded Russia, China, and Turkey
“So that was in a single year of slightly over 12,000 Brits arrested for speech acts, and that is more than were arrested that year in Russia, more than in China, more than in Turkey.”
Makary: FDA halted Biden-era policy allowing CAR-T cell editing in China
“We did find that there was in the Biden administration approval to have the cells of Americans for CAR T therapy shipped to China where the Chinese did the gene editing and then shipped back to the United States. To infuse in Americans. When I found out about …”
Lutnick: US tariff revenues will grow from $500B to $1T per year
“And then you have the tariffs are five hundred billion a year now, and they will grow over time to a trillion a year”
Lutnick predicts US GDP growth will reach 5% in early 2026
“They could be this quarter, as in the first quarter, so then I'd say, well, you have to come back and see me when it's through five, but then you'll come back in a couple of months, and then you'd say, Howard, I just spoke to you for an hour. I don't, you know…”
Lutnick predicts 6% US GDP growth if Fed cuts interest rates
“And then if they cut rates, and that's the thing, I need a new Fed chair who cuts rates, and if they cut rates... You'll see sixes.”
Sacks: Stolen Minnesota fraud money is round-tripped back to politicians
“There's some round tripping here where some of the funds that are going into the pockets of the Somali community through this fraud end up back in the hands of politicians.”
Sacks: Gov. Tim Walz changed Minnesota's flag to resemble Somalia's
“And the really extreme example of this is that Tim Walts even changed the flag of Minnesota to resemble the Somali flag. I mean, he lowered the old flag and raised this new flag to that resembles the Somali flag, which shows the political clout of this communi…”
Shirley: 81% of Minnesota's Somali population receives state welfare
“That's why 81% of the population, Somali population side of Minnesota is on welfare”
Bessent claims a 150-year San Francisco Fed study shows tariffs are disinflationary
“There's a study from not a friend of the administration, the San Francisco fed with a 150 years of data. I would refer everyone to that. That shows that tariffs do not cause inflation, that they're actually disinflationary.”
Tucker Carlson claims sexual orientation is driven primarily by nurture, not genetics
“Clearly it's not nature, at least primarily, or we wouldn't be having an absolute rise in it, and there would be some hint of a gene responsible for it. I mean, so many different you know, genetic manifestations have been isolated from the decoding of the huma…”
Calacanis: Nvidia will decline or severely downgrade investment in OpenAI
“I think NVIDIA is not going to take their option to invest in open AI, or they're going to really downgrade at 70, 80%, and they're going to allocate it to other players.”
Musk: UK released violent offenders to imprison people over social media posts
“They have, in a lot of cases, released people who have committed violent crimes in order to imprison people who have simply made posts on social media.”
Musk: Larry Page called him a 'speciesist' for favoring human over machine intelligence
“He called me a speciest like racist or something for being pro human intelligence instead of machine intelligence.”
Machado: Chávez and Maduro gave thousands of passports to Hezbollah and Hamas
“Even terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas to which Chavez and Maduro have given thousands of Venezuelan's identities and passports to travel around freely around the world.”
Biden threatened to never speak to Manchin if he killed rescue plan
“That's when he got pretty vulgar and just told me, I'm gonna, you're gonna, you know, if you kill my effing bill, I'll never talk to you again.”
Wood: Global real GDP growth will accelerate to 7% within a decade
“We believe that the productivity uplift here is going to be so strong during the next five to 10 years. And I think president Trump's tax package is going to turbocharge this, that real GDP growth will accelerate from that three percent where it has been for t…”
Wood: Tesla stock will reach $2,600 per share in five years
“And we put out there five years. Yeah. Yeah. So and I think if he delivers on humanoid robots the way he thinks he is, we don't have enough in there. So our price target is 2600.”
Sacks: Left-wing NGOs laundered over $100M of public money for Antifa
“These NGOs have laundered over a hundred million dollars of our money to fund terrorist violence in our streets.”
Chamath: Energy providers will demand equity stakes in AI companies as power becomes the key constraint
“Energy will be the gating item beyond a shadow of a doubt. And so if you control electrons, any form of electrons, hydrocarbon to electron, electron to electron, photon to electron, doesn't matter. You will then be in a position to start asking for equity, ups…”
Caruso: LAFD ran short of water, equipment during Palisades wildfire
“We were actually on the seventh loaning equipment to LA Fire Department, who was running short of equipment, and we were actually loaning water because we were bringing in our water tanks when the water hydrants failed to work.”
Caruso: LA spends $900,000 per homeless person moved off streets
“We are spending in the city of Los Angeles. 900,000 dollars per person that they're moving from the streets. 900,000 dollars.”
Sacks: Data shows 3x more people on left endorse political violence
“Last week we showed you plenty of data showing that there was three times as many people on the left who are celebrating or endorsing political violence.”
Schmidt: Most of the world will use Chinese open-weight AI models
“China is competing with open weights and open training data, and the U.S. Is largely and majority focused on closed weights, closed data. That means that the majority of the world, think of it as the Belt and Road Initiative, are going to use Chinese models an…”
Sacks: Political violence and censorship will lead to civil war
“It's the antithesis, and it's not Western civilization. It's something different and destructive, and where it will lead to is a civil war that none of us should want on either side of the political spectrum.”
Yakovenko: The internet will hold the most US Treasuries within five years
“I think within five years, the internet is going to be the largest holder of US treasuries.”
DNI Gabbard: Draft 2016 PDB finding no Russian election interference was pulled
“This December eighth president's daily brief was consistent with all of the other assessments, essentially saying there was no interference in the outcome of the election by Russia. That brief was pulled. It was never published. It was pulled back from publish…”
Gabbard: U.S. and Israeli strikes successfully destroyed Iran's nuclear capability
“Their nuclear capability was destroyed much of their infrastructure destroyed, much of their military capability destroyed. When you look at Israel's actions throughout that twelve-day war their economy is tanking their energy sector is tanking, so it's a, it,…”
Musk: AI could be smarter than any individual human by 2026
“I think that we might have AI smarter than any single human at anything as soon as next year.”
Musk: AI will probably be smarter than all humans combined by 2030
“And then probably within five, like say, 2030, probably AI is smarter than the sum of all humans.”
Musk: Mars could become self-sustaining in roughly 25 to 30 years
“I think it can be done in, in 30 years. Provided there's an exponential increase in the tonnage to Mars, with each successive Mars transfer windows, which is every two years. So every two years, the planets align, and you can transfer to Mars. So I think in, R…”
Cuban: PBMs threaten drugmakers over Cost Plus Drugs partnerships
“And they've literally told the brand manufacturers, if you deal with costplusdrugs.com, we will diminish you on that formulary. So instead of reaching a hundred eighty million people, And not just for the drugs they work with us on, but for their entire portfo…”