The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 5,135 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 50 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gelsinger: Intel returned $100B to shareholders five years before his return
“In the five years five, six years before I came back, you know, Intel gave a hundred billion dollars to shareholders.”
Gelsinger: Intel did not build a new factory for a decade
“It hadn't built a new factory in a decade when I got there.”
Gelsinger: Taiwan currently has less than three weeks of energy reserves
“The island of Taiwan has less than three weeks, a big article in the Wall Street Journal two weeks ago on this, less than three weeks of energy reserves.”
Gelsinger: China blockaded the Taiwan Strait seven times in four years
“I think China has blockaded the Taiwan Straits seven times over the last four years.”
Gerstner: No current evidence that commodity AI is eroding frontier model revenue
“People are speculating that the intelligence gap between that commodity stuff and the frontier stuff is going to collapse to the point that people won't pay for the frontier stuff. There is no evidence of that on the field today. It may develop over the course…”
Sacks: AI token revenue is a duopoly between Anthropic and OpenAI
“The market today seems to be pushing towards duopoly, or it has become a duopoly, certainly measured in terms of revenue. If you were to look at market share based on token revenue, there's only two companies making meaningful revenue. Anthropics at, what, six…”
Sacks: Anthropic ARR is around $60B+ and OpenAI ARR is $47B
“We know that Anthropic's around sixty-something billion of ARR. Open AI is at forty-seven billion of ARR.”
Calacanis: Uber and Waymo stopped recruiting drivers in scaled autonomous markets
“If you talk to Uber and Waymo in the cities where Waymo is present and has gotten past a couple of hundred cars, they've stopped recruiting drivers. Drivers are either static or going down in those markets.”
Sacks: Study shows top AI-spending firms grew headcount 10% post-adoption
“And it was an actual study of over 21,000 firms in the U.S., and they looked at their Payroll data combined with their spending on AI, and what they saw is that firms that spent the most on AI actually grew the fastest, and they tended to grow their headcount …”
Sacks: No other country in the world has birthright citizenship policy
“By the way, I don't think any country in the world has this policy. It's kind of a crazy policy.”
Friedberg: At least 15 Fortune 500 companies left California since 2019
“Since 2019, at least 15 Fortune 500 companies have moved out of California, moved their headquarters out, not to mention all the local franchises and everything that moved out. 2100 companies that are mid or large size have moved out of California since 2019.”
Jason Calacanis: Heritage Foundation data shows voter fraud cannot flip elections
“They have a lot of people trying to figure out where fraud exists, investigating it, and it's de minimis. It's a couple of thousands of cases they can find. So even if you extrapolated them, 10 X or 20 X, pick your multiple, it would never swing a major electi…”
Nate Silver: Immigrant and entrepreneurial groups are shifting away from Democrats
“You have seen shifts in those groups and the most entrepreneurial groups away from Democrats.”
Sacks: Polling shows 80% of Democrats disapprove of Israel
“If you look at polling, 80% of Democrats now say they disapprove of Israel.”
Sacks: Chinese AI models lag US frontier models by nine months
“The Chinese have been, I'd say nine months behind our models, plus or minus three months, depending on capability.”
Calacanis: OpenAI's Greg Brockman and wife donated $25M to Trump
“If you look at OpenAI and Grok, those are the people who are largely pro-Trump including Greg Brockman and his wife, who gave twenty-five million to Trump.”
Sacks: Anthropic retains all Mythos prompts and outputs for 30 days
“They are now retaining for 30 days, every prompt and every output you send to one of these mythos class models. There are no exceptions, even enterprise customers who had signed zero data retention agreements.”
Sacks: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei advocated for FDA-style AI regulation
“Dario wrote a new blog post. Saying that transparency was no longer good enough, that we needed to have a new regulatory agency like an FAA or maybe an FDA to approve all models.”
Chamath Palihapitiya claims a gigawatt of data center capacity costs $100 billion
“A gigawatt now costs a hundred billion dollars guys.”
Sacks: Dario Amodei's prediction of 50% entry-level AI job loss is refuted
“Dario said specifically, 50% job loss for entry level knowledge workers in the next one to five years. And he said that one year ago. I think that's already been refuted.”
Calacanis: No major election has been swung by election fraud
“And I don't think that there has been an election, a major election that has been swung by election fraud.”
Sacks: Lyndon B. Johnson got elected to Senate via ballot fraud
“Lyndon Johnson only got elected to the Senate. He got his start in politics through ballot fraud.”
Sacks: Democrats denied 2016 election and concocted Russiagate hoax
“Look, the Democratic Party as a whole were election deniers about Trump winning in 2016. They concocted the whole Russiagate hoax to basically try and discredit his election.”
McCormick: Pennsylvania overdose deaths fell 60% to 1,600 this year
“We had 4000 people who died in Pennsylvania in the last year of the Biden administration at 1600. This year it's down 60%, those same statistics nationally.”
Fetterman: Capitalism is the only system proven to raise global living standards
“Capitalism is the one system that has proven to raise life's standard of humans across the globe.”
Dreyfus: China magnet ban put Ford days from shutting down production
“And the cutoff of samarium cobalt magnets, we learned that the Ford Motor Company was within days, literally days, of their entire production line shutting down. The whole Ford Motor Company.”
Dreyfus: China controls the technological know-how for rare earth processing
“The Chinese have all the technological know-how to convert what you take out of the ground and convert it into something that we can use.”
Top craft labor graduates start at $150,000 straight out of high school
“If you go to Quanah University and you're top of your class, you're starting out at a 150 grand right out of high school.”
Google forbade using the term 'AI' for years after GV launched
“At that time, Google would not let us use the term AI. And this persisted for many years.”
A $7B fund returning 3x exceeds total annual venture exit values
“Now, if you have a seven billion dollar fund, and we do the same math through, you know, you've got to return two hundred and ten billion. Seven billion to 70 times three X is two hundred and ten billion, which, ah, exceeds the total venture-backed M&A and IPO…”
Arora: Claude Mythos had a 30% false positive rate in testing
“The false positive rate on Mythos was 30%.”
Gerstner: Secondary share pricing shifted from 20% discount to a premium
“Secondaries over the last couple of years, we're trading at a discount to market. So if we wanted to sell shares in one of our companies, Right, to buyers out there, they were willing to give us 80 cents on the dollar in order for us to get liquid so that we c…”
Feldman: Cerebras is 15 to 18 times faster than a GPU for OpenAI
“So when OpenAI uses us, we're 15 or 18 times faster than a GPU.”
Laffont: Anthropic is scaling faster than any previous tech company
“Anthropic in particular is scaling like no other company that we've ever seen.”
Laffont: Centacorns have a 31% chance of 10x-ing to $1 Trillion
“So the data showed us that if you're a unicorn, the odds of you one day becoming a Decacorn are about eight percent. If you're a Decacorn, so that means you're over ten billion, the odds of you becoming a hundred billion dollar company, not much better. Eight …”
Friar: Additional compute capacity is virtually impossible to buy in 2026
“But the landscape right now, in 26, if you want to buy more compute, good luck to you. Like, tell me, because I don't know where else to find it.”
Friar: OpenAI holds at least 11% of search market share
“We know we have at least 11% of the search market.”
Calacanis: Amazon, Google, and Meta lobbied Vatican on AI encyclical
“The folks at Amazon, Google, and Meta lobbied the Vatican on April, 29th to soften the language in his missive.”
Sacks: Software developer job postings reach three-year high, up 15% YoY
“Software developers are not being laid off on net. In fact, job postings, job recs for software developers are at a three year high, growing 15% year over year.”
Sacks: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are walking back AI job displacement warnings
“There was a huge narrative shift this week. Sam is backing off this. Even Dario's walking it back.”
Calacanis: Google included 4GB Gemini Nano in Chrome without telling users
“Chrome included Gemini or Google included in their Chrome browser, the Gemini Nano model without telling anybody four gigabytes on your computer.”
Chamath Palihapitiya: Presidential AI executive order was scrubbed at last minute
“There was supposed to be an EO, a presidential executive order that was announced today, and then it was pulled, it was scrubbed at the last minute.”
Chamath Palihapitiya: China is less than nine months behind US in AI
“I think it's actually good that China is less than nine months behind us.”
Calacanis: Anthropic signed $45B compute rental deal with SpaceX
“Anthropic is paying SpaceX, wait for it, 1.25 billion a month. To rent out Colossus One and parts of Colossus Two. It's a forty five billion dollar deal over three years, fifteen billion a year.”
Gavin Baker: Cursor allegedly has more coding tokens than public internet
“Cursor has, we will never know, but Cursor allegedly has more tokens of coding data than exist on the public internet.”
Gavin Baker: Major tech firms are convinced orbital compute will become reality
“Google, Anthropic, Amazon, NVIDIA. They are all very convinced that orbital compute is going to be reality, and obviously SpaceX is extraordinarily well positioned for that.”
Gavin Baker: Only xAI, Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic are AI frontier companies
“And the companies on the frontier are XAI with one build of Grok 4.3, which is a five hundred billion parameter model. Google, 3.1 pro, and then OpenAI and Anthropic, and that's it. Those are the companies on the frontier.”