The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Calacanis: Combined SpaceX and xAI will IPO this year
“Now those two become part of SpaceX and they're going to IPO this year, potentially the biggest IPO in history in terms of money raised and market cap.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 7, 2026 ▶ 1:01:14 Epstein Files, Is SaaS Dead?, Moltbook Panic, SpaceX xAI Merger, Trump's Fed Pick
Prediction Held up
Baker: xAI's Grok 3 should take the AI lead in early 2025
“Grok three should take the lead if scaling laws hold in January or February.”
Gavin Baker Dec 7, 2024 ▶ 1:01:03 New SEC Chair, Bitcoin, xAI Supercomputer, UnitedHealth CEO murder, with Gavin Baker & Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: xAI raised an up round at double its previous valuation
“XAI just raised an up round at twice the valuation from the last round and we had to divest that too.”
David Sacks Jan 10, 2026 ▶ 39:29 All-In's 2026 Predictions
Assertion Supported
Baker: Grok 4 scored 44.4% on Humanity's Last Exam versus GPT-5's 42%
“GroK IV when it came out and it is improved. Since, since its release roughly a month ago, was at 44.4%, and GPT five was at 42.”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 11:53 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Assertion Contradicted
Gavin Baker: xAI has the largest Nvidia Blackwell cluster
“They have the largest Blackwell cluster.”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 13:00 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
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