why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Kalanick: Waymo takes 100x more energy to drive than a human
“The Waymo machine takes a hundred times more energy to drive a Waymo than a human does to drive a Waymo.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Friedberg predicts Waymo will execute a major financing, IPO, or merger
“You could see something happen with Waymo this year that could either be something like a massive financing, an IPO, or a merger or acquisition with one of the big ride-sharing companies. I don't know if that makes as much strategic sense as I've thought about…”
Assertion Partly supported
Mawakana: Waymo has 73% fewer injury crashes than human drivers
“What we've been able to determine as of June of this year with over twenty-two million, what we refer to as RO miles, those are miles that are fully autonomous. We've been able to have 83% fewer airbag deployments, which of course is important because those ar…”
Assertion Contradicted
Mawakana: Waymo is the only company operating Level 4 autonomy 24/7
“We're the only company that's doing level four driving on public roads, 24 hours a day.”
Assertion Supported
Friedberg notes Waymo captured 22% of the San Francisco rideshare market
“Waymo launched in SF in August, 20, 23 in kind of an open market way. Uber and Lyft were 66 and 34% market share at the time. And in 15 months in November of 2024, Waymo is now a 22% market share of rides in SF, which is the same as Lyft and Uber is now down t…”
Assertion Supported
Mawakana: Cruise safety incident led to more AV scrutiny in SF
“It definitely led to more scrutiny in San Francisco because there was already an active and continues to be a fairly active voice against technology in San Francisco”
Assertion Contradicted
Mawakana: Waymo is the only company providing autonomous airport pickups
“We're the only company that can pick you up autonomously at the airport, right?”
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Waymo vehicles run AI models entirely on-board without remote POPs
“I talked to Takedra. And what's interesting is the Waymo approach is they don't need pops anywhere because all of the models are on board. So these things go fully autonomous units out into the wild. They can make every decision themeselves. They have the lida…”
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Waymo is completing 250,000 rides per week across four cities
“250,000 rides a week now, growing like crazy, and they're only like four cities.”
Assertion Supported
Mawakana: Waymo drives more in a week than a human in a lifetime
“The, you know, we drive in a week more than a human drives in a lifetime.”
Assertion Supported
Mawakana: Waymo completes over 100,000 paid rides weekly
“It's completely true. And it's over a 100,000. Per week, yeah.”
Assertion Contradicted
Calacanis: Waymo Is Doubling Its Fleet Every Six Months
“Waymo. They're doubling the number of cars on the road, like every six months or so.”
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Waymo is about to hit 250,000 daily autonomous miles
“I think the amount of miles driven per day by Waymo is about to pass 250,000.”
Assertion Supported
Waymo driverless rides are currently active on Uber in Austin and Atlanta
“Waymo, Waymo is working with us now in Austin and Atlanta. So in Austin and Atlanta, if you're using Uber, ah, you can be picked up, ah, with a Waymo.”
Assertion Supported
Mawakana: Waymo has operated 24/7 driverless ride-hailing since 2020 in three markets
“A lot of people don't realize we've had a 24 seven ride hailing service around the clock. It was in 2020 during COVID though. That we removed the driver from behind the wheel. So we have the WeMo driver that's driving the vehicles at all time, but there's no h…”
Assertion Supported
Mawakana: Waymo's SF fleet operated through severe storms without downtime
“We've tested across 25 cities specifically for that, so we had massive storms in San Francisco last year. And we didn't take down the fleet, like our fleet was able to handle all of the rain.”
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Google invested over $1B in Waymo before self-driving was accepted
“Look at what Google did with Waymo. They put over a billion dollars in that project before everyone woke up and said, my God, self-driving is real.”