The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 18 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Calacanis: Major enterprise customers will abandon OpenAI and Anthropic for open-source
“And I'll make this prediction here, that you're going to see some of the major customers Of Anthropic and major customers of OpenAI. I'm talking about the eight and nine figure customers, people spending fifty million, a hundred million a year. They're leaving…”
Sacks: OpenAI forecasts $75 billion in exit ARR by year-end
“I think they were expecting to end the year at sixty billion of ARR. And I think they're forecasting more like seventy five billion of exit ARR.”
Chamath: Software sector P/E multiples will contract as AI degrades tech moats
“The tech sector PE is going to shrink faster, in my opinion, than the non-tech PE. And the reason is because as these companies come out, the combination of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, all three are baking An AI technology that first and foremost will go af…”
Chamath: OpenAI could reach a $1.5T valuation within four years
“I would probably put that at like, 500 Dow to be conservative. It's probably doubling every two years. So 500 goes to a 1,000,000,001, billion goes to two in four years, and at two billion Dow, they generate a 1th of Facebook's revenue, just to be very conserv…”
Chamath: Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs will fund over $500B in charity
“The interesting thing that's going to happen post the anthropic and open AI IPOs is if you think about the amount of charitable giving or DAFs that are going to be funded by both of these two IPOs, it's going to be north of half a trillion dollars between the …”
Gerstner: SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will compound revenue at 30%+ annually
“I think all of these companies are gonna compound revenue at well over 30% for the next many years.”
Sarah Friar: OpenAI will unveil new hardware in 2026 and sell in 2027
“We're changing into a consumer substrate that I cannot tell you what it is, but by the end of this year, we will unveil it. Early next year we'll be able to buy it.”
Gerstner: AMD could capture $150B incremental revenue from OpenAI deal
“If it works, she's going to get a hundred and fifty billion of incremental revenue just from open AI, right? For building out five gigawatts.”
Sacks: OpenAI likely trained its Sora video model on YouTube data
“I think it's pretty clear that OpenAI trained Sora using, you know, available data on the internet, and that probably included YouTube.”
Calacanis: OpenAI will face severe IRS scrutiny over its corporate structure
“And I think this is where OpenAI is going to get super tripped up. And I think the IRS is going to have a field day here.”
Calacanis: OpenAI will pay a nine-figure settlement to New York Times
“I think it's going to be a nine figure settlement for previous stuff, and then an ongoing licensing fee in order to have the New York Times in their training data.”
Friar: OpenAI won't get compute from Michigan data center until late 2027 or 2028
“Like that Michigan data center in Saline, I don't think we will be getting compute out of it until probably end of 27, early 28.”
Chamath predicts OpenAI and Anthropic must build their own data centers
“I don't see any path except they're going to have to do it themselves, and Anthropic will have to do it themselves.”
Calacanis: At least two major tech unicorns will file IPOs in 2026
“Anticipate one of the following two will file. SpaceX, Android, Stripe, Anthropic, and OpenAI. I think two of those file, and it is going to be gangbusters.”
Sacks: OpenAI will release a hardware device like an AI phone or pendant
“On a serious note, what I would say is maybe what this deal indicates is, I mean, obviously is that open AI is going to do something with hardware. It could be a new kind of phone that is AI first, as opposed to the wall of applications, or maybe it's like som…”