The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 86 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Friedberg: OpenAI and Retro Biosciences created 50x more effective rejuvenation proteins
“They actually got these new proteins to be 50 times more effective than the OSK and M proteins and basically rejuvenation or cellular Reset.”
Baker: Grok 4 scored 44.4% on Humanity's Last Exam versus GPT-5's 42%
“GroK IV when it came out and it is improved. Since, since its release roughly a month ago, was at 44.4%, and GPT five was at 42.”
Buchheit: Y Combinator started OpenAI in 2015
“And so actually a lot of people don't know, we started OpenAI at Y Combinator 10 years ago in 2015.”
Lafont: Apple's AirPod business revenue is triple OpenAI's total revenue
“To that point it's interesting to think that the AirPod business at Apple is three X opening eyes revenue based today.”
Chamath: OpenAI and G42 partner on 5-gigawatt Abu Dhabi AI cluster
“It just hit the wire that OpenAI is partnering on a five gigawatt data center cluster in Abu Dhabi with G-forty-two.”
Chamath: Figure AI canceled its OpenAI deal to build its own model
“And what he did was he had a deal with open AI, which he pretty publicly canceled a few weeks ago, and he announced his own model.”
Friedberg: OpenAI's Axel Springer deal is worth tens of millions of dollars
“It's a three year deal. They're paying tens of millions of dollars to Axel Springer to access their closed content and present it to the user.”
Calacanis: ChatGPT mobile app will 10x users and usage
“If this thing is an app form, that's going to 10 x the number of users, and it's going to 10 x the amount of usage.”
Calacanis: Sam Altman turned OpenAI closed by stopping open-source releases
“He made open AI, closed AI, By making it not open source.”
Sacks: OpenAI used GPT-4 internally for seven months before release
“Moreover, chat GPT four, which was just released a few weeks ago. We know that open AI had that. They were using it internally for seven months.”
Sacks: OpenAI will release GPT-4 within several months
“GPT-IV is coming out, I think in the next several months, and it's supposedly, you know, a huge advancement over version three.”
Friedberg: OpenAI will receive a $1B+ investment in 2023
“They're going to get a billion dollar plus investment this year.”
Chamath: OpenAI used AI and human collaboration to solve decades-old math problem
“So for example, we were able to solve, I'm just collectively saying we, in this case, it was specifically open AI. By the use of a human, and this is important, you know, a math problem that stood outstanding, not been solved for decades and decades.”
Benioff: OpenAI, Anthropic, and every AI company standardized on Slack
“And you know, that open AI and Anthropik and every AI company is standardized on Slack.”
Palihapitiya: Polymarket odds place Elon Musk's chance of winning at 42-43%
“It's effectively at 42 or 43% that Elon wins.”
Calacanis predicts Elon Musk vs. OpenAI lawsuit will end in settlement
“My guess is, like most of these things, there'll be some sort of settlement or something here, but maybe he takes it to the mat, who knows.”
GPT-5.5 uses Spud, OpenAI's first base model upgrade in a year
“GPT-Five. Five is based on a new base model called Spud, which is the first base model upgrade they've done in, I don't know, over a year, and having a new base model will pave the way for future improvements as well.”
Gerstner: Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic actively coordinate on safety
“The Frontier Model Forum, which was put together in 23 is cooperating on anti and adversarial distillation stuff as we speak, right? They don't want to make it easy on, you know, so Google and OpenAI and Anthropic, they're coordinating on this stuff.”
Intrator: OpenAI token costs dropped from $32 to nine cents
“She was talking about the cost of a million tokens when ChatGP three came out, and it was 32 dollars in change, and now a million tokens cost nine cents.”
Baker: OpenAI's ChatGPT-5 router was broken for its first 16 hours
“I mean, in all fairness to OpenAI, the router that kind of auto selects the right model was apparently broken for the first kind of. 12 or 16 hours of the model's release. It wasn't working.”
Calacanis: GPT-5's launch featured flat charts, miscalculations, and typos
“A little bit of a messy presentation for GPT-Five yesterday. This wasn't like your classic Steve Jobs keynote. The charts were flat and wrong, miscalculations, typos, all kinds of stuff, but the model did top some leaderboards in fairness in the chat bot arena…”
Huang: DeepSeek, OpenAI, and DeepMind started with around 150 people
“DeepSeek's a 150 people. Boonshot's a 150 people. And so, I mean, look at the original OpenAI was about a 150 people. DeepMind, you know, and they're all about that size.”
Calacanis: OpenAI bought Jony Ive's IO for $6.5B in stock
“They bought it for 6.5 billion in an all stock deal.”
Baker: OpenAI explored pricing initial agents at $2K to $20K monthly
“OpenAI was talking about pricing their first agents at 2000 to 20,000 dollars a month.”
Chamath predicts OpenAI will release the full o1 model within months
“And then they'll have the actual O-one production build probably in the next couple of months, which will be probably pretty spectacular.”
Calacanis: Scarlett Johansson's dispute with OpenAI will settle out of court
“If you go look at all the fair use cases, they almost never go to the mat. And so this one will just be settled.”
Calacanis: Duolingo stock took a hit during OpenAI's GPT-4o demo
“I think Doolingo stock took a hit during that.”
Altman: OpenAI's Sora video model was built from scratch without a language model base
“But yeah, Sora, like, does not start with a language model. It's, that, that's a model that is, like, customized to do video and so, like, we're clearly not at that world yet.”
Sacks: OpenAI defines AGI as software capable of replacing 80% of jobs
“They say it's something that can replace 80% of the jobs, but I think we all kind of know what it really is.”
Chamath: OpenAI's tax structure issues will be resolved in court
“And if OpenAI turns out to be this multi-hundred billion dollar behemoth, this will get figured out in court because there's just too much money at stake.”
Chamath: Elon Musk was instrumental in recruiting Ilya Sutskever to OpenAI
“They used his name pretty aggressively to get more money, and he was very instrumental in getting some of the early critical hires, particularly Ilya, which has been, I think, well-documented, to leave Google, right?”
Calacanis: Founders Fund invested in OpenAI at $29B valuation, avoids other AI deals
“Founders fund bought into open AI. At a twenty nine billion dollar valuation, but aside from that investment, they're generally avoiding the AI deals.”
Calacanis: Elon Musk donated $50 million to OpenAI, not $1 billion
“No, he contributed fifty million, I think. I don't think it was a billion.”
Calacanis: OpenAI's Polymarket odds for 2026 best model spiked above 20%
“The ratings here from Polymarket, which company has the best AI model, by the end of twenty-twenty-six, OpenAI's chances just spiked from low single digits now to over 20%.”
Calacanis: OpenAI updated ChatGPT to limit relationship advice and prompt breaks
“OpenAI saw this becoming an issue and they made some healthy use updates to ChatGPT. It's no longer going to tell you whether or not To break up with your boyfriend, to leave your spouse, it prompts you to take a break after long sessions.”