The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 56 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Calacanis: Nvidia will decline or severely downgrade investment in OpenAI
“I think NVIDIA is not going to take their option to invest in open AI, or they're going to really downgrade at 70, 80%, and they're going to allocate it to other players.”
Sacks: Anthropic Lobbied to Restrict Nvidia's International Chip Sales
“Anthropic has really been behind a lot of the political activity to restrict Nvidia's sales internationally.”
Jensen Huang: Nvidia's market share in China fell from 95% to 0%
“At the current moment as we speak, NVIDIA gave up a 95% market share in the second largest market in the world, and we're at zero percent.”
Gavin Baker: Nvidia trades at low to mid-teens multiple of real earnings
“And, you know, these, the Nvidia of the tech bubble is Cisco and it traded a hundred times forward earnings. And, you know, I think Nvidia is probably at a low teens, multiple of kind of low to mid teens, multiple of real earnings.”
Huang: Nvidia is gaining AI infrastructure market share
“Surprisingly, NVIDIA's gaining market share. If you look at where we are today, we're gaining share.”
Sacks: China is blocking Nvidia chips to subsidize and elevate Huawei
“I think Bloomberg and Reuters reported that they actually are not allowing Nvidia chips into their country, and the reason for that, we think, is that they want to indigenize chip production. They want to stand up Huawei as their national champion, and effecti…”
Friedberg: Huawei will challenge Nvidia in 2026 using undisclosed lithography tech
“My early prediction for twenty-twenty-six is Huawei, where I think that there's lithography technology, that exists in China that is not publicly discussed, that is going to be deployed in Huawei and all these fabs that they're building in mainland China.”
Gerstner: Wall Street estimates Nvidia revenue growth flatlining under 10% CAGR from 2027-2029
“So if you look at that estimate, you know, starting in 20, 27, it basically flatlines 27 through 29 for Nvidia. Right? Less than 10% CAGR in terms of the growth for NVIDIA. They have by 20 29, them doing three hundred and sixty billion in revenue compared to t…”
Trump claims NVIDIA committed to a $500 billion investment over four years
“NVIDIA has committed five hundred billion dollars over the next four years.”
Palihapitiya: 47% of Nvidia's revenue comes from China and related regions
“About 47% of all of Nvidia's revenue goes to China and Chinese-related Countries.”
Palihapitiya: DeepSeek bypassed Nvidia CUDA software lock-in using PTX
“Everybody is used to building models and compiling through CUDA, which is Nvidia's proprietary language, which I've said for a couple of times is their biggest moat, but it's also the biggest threat factor for lock-in. And these guys worked totally around CUDA…”
Thiel: Nvidia earns over 100% of AI industry profits
“Nvidia is making over 100% of the profits. Everybody else is collectively losing money.”
Hoffman predicts the bulk of AI chip demand will be for inference
“And I think there's gonna be a bunch of those kind of coming in, and the bulk of the demand will be on the inference side”
Chamath: Nvidia will lose market share to AI chip startups over time
“At some point, the spread trade will be that Nvidia loses share, even though revenues keep compounding to these upstarts.”
Sacks: Nvidia's valuation is grounded in profits, unlike Cisco in 2000
“One is that if you look at Nvidia's multiples, they're nowhere near where Cisco's were back then. So the market in 1999 and early 2000 was way more bubbly than it is now. So Nvidia's valuation is much more grounded in real revenue, real margins, real profit.”
Chamath: Competition will eventually decay Nvidia's profit margins
“I think that that probably decays the Nvidia margin and upside over time.”
Brad Gerstner predicts Nvidia will beat earnings expectations through late 2023
“I don't think there's any problems with Nvidia. I think they're going to continue to perform. I think they're beat their numbers for the balance of the year.”
Palihapitiya predicts major non-Nvidia AI hardware announcements within two quarters
“So my bet is in the next two quarters, you start to see some real action so that folks start to have to balance their forecasts, where it's not just a hundred percent NVIDIA, but it's NVIDIA plus plus plus.”
Palihapitiya: Nvidia's margins will compress as major tech companies build custom chips
“In the end, Nvidia's gains today will be then spread across Nvidia. Facebook will have their own chip. Amazon will have their own chip. Google already does. Apple will have their own chip. All the memory companies will be in this space, right? So then the prof…”
Friedberg: Paul Pelosi bought Nvidia stock four times in 12 months
“Over the past year, He has bought Nvidia four different times, each time in the same kind of volume range... He's also bought Apple in the last month, Microsoft, sorry, he sold Apple, he bought Microsoft he bought Alliance Bernstein earlier in the year. He's m…”
Calacanis: Nvidia acquired Hugging Face for $12B and Poolside for $6B
“He bought Hugging Face for twelve billion, and he did like one of these aqua hire deals with Poolside for six billion total, about twenty billion in twenty billion in acquisitions, which is far less than one percent of the market cap of NVIDIA.”
Calacanis: Nvidia partnering with Goldman and BlackRock for $500B financing
“NVIDIA is partnering with Goldman, BlackRock, and others to raise five hundred billion in AI compute.”
Gerstner: Vast majority of AI compute offtake comes from 3 companies
“So the vast majority of the offtake commitments are coming from Anthropic, OpenAI, and NVIDIA. Right. When you hear about the hyperscalers building all of this, you know, this computer, they're building it out to sell to the people that we you know, that we ju…”
Jensen Huang says Nvidia's physical AI business is near $10 billion annually
“It is a multi-billion dollar business for us. It's close to ten billion dollars a year now.”
Huang: AWS will purchase 1 million Nvidia chips in coming years
“In the case of AWS, I think they just announced, I think it was yesterday, that they're gonna buy a million chips in the next couple years.”
Chamath: OpenAI is diversifying inference hardware across AMD, Nvidia, and Cerebras
“What I can tell you is that OpenAI is aggressively trying to diversify so that they have multiple paths Of inference available. They have a huge deal with AMD. They have a huge deal with Nvidia. They now have a huge deal with Cerebris.”
Gerstner: Nvidia captured nearly 100% of incremental AI data center revenues
“In twenty-twenty-two, two and a half years ago, NVIDIA and AMD had basically the same revenue, twenty-five billion dollars, right? This year, NVIDIA will do 10 X that at roughly, you know, 210, two hundred and thirty billion dollars, and AMD will do thirty-thr…”
Chamath: Nvidia reports revenue based on billing address, not physical delivery
“They report revenue on what's called the billing or the invoicing address.”
Palihapitiya: Nvidia stock will trend upward for next 18 to 24 months
“Is it not going to go up in the next 18 to 24 months? Probably is for exactly the reason you said. It is super set up to have a very good meet and beat guidance for the street, which they'll eat up and all of the algorithms that trade the press releases will d…”
Nvidia sets corporate record with $247 billion single-day market cap gain
“Shares were up 15% on Thursday, representing a nearly two hundred fifty billion dollar jump in market cap. So let's just let that sit in for a second. This is the largest single day gain in market cap. Two hundred forty seven billion dollars added in market ca…”
Gerstner: ByteDance announced a $1B Nvidia chip purchase in June 2023
“ByteDance bought a billion dollars worth of Nvidia chips announced this week, right?”
Sacks: Nvidia guided for 70% growth against 45% Street expectations
“Which is really, I think the reason why the stock is up eight percent today is not just the great quarter, but the fact that they guided To 70% growth next year, whereas the street was only expecting around 45%.”
Loosararian: NVIDIA invested $1B into Skild AI at $14B valuation
“NVIDIA, I think, just put a billion dollars into skilled AI, which is creating the brain for robots. Actually at a fourteen billion dollar evaluation”
Gerstner: Nvidia trades at lower P/E ratio than at $200 share price
“The reality today is NVIDIA trades at a lower price to earnings multiple than it did when it was 200 dollars a share.”
Haas: Nvidia is an Arm customer rather than a direct competitor
“NVIDIA is a customer of ours, so I'm not gonna say Jensen is my competitor today.”
Chamath: Nvidia SEC filings show 47% of revenue in China, Singapore, Taiwan
“When you look at the SEC filings for Nvidia and you add up all the revenue, it says that about 47% of the revenue goes to China, Singapore, Taiwan, I think it was.”
Sacks: Nvidia H20 chip has 20% more memory bandwidth than H100
“And if you look at the memory bandwidth on the H-Twenty, it actually has 20% more memory bandwidth than the H-One-Hundred.”
Chamath: Broadcom is a $1.12T business that receives little attention
“Is that it is the only trillion dollar company that nobody talks about. Everybody knows Nvidia. Everybody knows Amazon Meta, but Broadcom is a 1.12 trillion dollar business.”
Laffont: Nvidia's Jensen Huang is Silicon Valley's longest-tenured founder CEO
“And you get to back a founder like Jensen at NVIDIA, who many people don't know, but is the longest tenured founder CEO in Silicon Valley.”
Calacanis: Nvidia Q1 revenue reached $26 billion, up 260% year-over-year
“NVIDIA reported earnings for the fiscal Q one revenue was twenty six billion up 18% quarter of a quarter, 260% year over year.”
Friedberg: $22B of Nvidia's $26B Q1 revenue came from data centers
“If you look at NVIDIA's revenue, they did twenty six billion dollars of total revenue in the quarter, twenty two billion of which was data center, and about 40% of that Was from the top four hyperscalers.”
Nvidia reports $22.1B Q4 revenue and 9x net income growth
“Q four revenue, 22.1 billion. That's up 22% quarter over quarter, up 265% year over year. The net income was 12.3 billion, nine X year over year.”
Friedberg: Nvidia is currently trading at 70 times next twelve months EBITDA
“When you look at the valuation of the business, they are currently trading at 70 times The next 12 months EBITDA.”
Chamath: 13Fs show hedge funds and family offices long Nvidia and AMD
“And it turns out if you look at their 13 Fs, they're all long NVIDIA and AMD.”
Huang: Nvidia has 43,000 employees, including 38,000 engineers
“We have 43,000 employees, you know, I would say 38,000 are engineers.”
Huang: Nvidia has radiation-hardened CUDA hardware deployed in satellites
“We're already radiation-hardened. We have CUDA in satellites around the world.”