The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Sacks: Blinken told Russia US wanted Ukraine in NATO with nuclear weapons
“And you know, it turns out that the month before the Russians invaded, Blinken told Lavrov that the administration was not only going to bring Ukraine into NATO, but that they thought it was okay for the United States to put nuclear weapons in Ukraine.”
David Sacks Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 24:01 In conversation with President Trump
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Friedberg: Turkey faces risk of being challenged in NATO in 2024
“I think there's a risk that Turkey gets challenged to leave NATO. That a lot of what's going on right now where Turkey is siding with Hamas, this has obviously been talked about and rumored about for a long time. There's no real mechanism, by the way, for kick…”
David Friedberg Jan 6, 2024 ▶ 47:01 E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Assertion Supported
RFK Jr. asserts the US broke a pledge not to expand NATO east
“We gave our word that we would not expand NATO one inch to the east, and now we've gone into 13 countries.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. May 5, 2023 ▶ 17:04 In conversation with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: Prominent foreign policy figures historically warned against NATO expansion
“Back in the 19 nineties, you had people like George Kennan, who was the architect of our Cold War containment policy. You had William J. Perry was Bill Clinton's defense secretary. You had Henry Kissinger, you had John Mearsheimer, all warned that bringing NAT…”
David Sacks Oct 14, 2022 ▶ 24:21 E100: Reflecting on the first 100 shows, fan questions, nuclear threat, markets, Amazon & more
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: NATO expansion contradicted U.S. assurances given to Mikhail Gorbachev
“This was basically a contradiction of the verbal assurances that James Baker and President George Herbert Walker Bush had given Gorbachev that we would not expand NATO one inch eastward.”
David Sacks Sep 10, 2022 ▶ 39:46 E95: Winter is Coming, Europe's energy crisis, Kim Kardashian's new PE firm & more
Assertion Supported
Sacks: US broke 1990 pledge to Gorbachev not to expand NATO eastward
“Baker made the promise to Gorbachev, not one inch eastward. Gorbachev said, yes, ok, they can reunify, but we do not want NATO moving up to our border. Baker made that promise. We have brought NATO up to their border.”
David Sacks Sep 1, 2022 ▶ 1:19:21 E94: NFT volume plummets, California's overreach, FBI meddling, climate change & national security
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: The US reneged on promise to Gorbachev not to expand NATO
“The US reneged on this promise to Gorbachev not to expand NATO one inch eastward. And instead we began multiple waves of NATO expansion.”
David Sacks Feb 17, 2024 ▶ 1:39:10 E166: Mind-blowing AI Video: OpenAI launches Sora + Is Biden too old? Tucker/Putin interview & more
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Istanbul outline required Russian withdrawal for Ukrainian NATO neutrality
“What the deal would have provided is that the Russians would move back to pre-war lines if the Ukrainians would agree not to become a member of NATO.”
David Sacks Jun 24, 2023 ▶ 20:50 E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: Zelensky revealed Blinken privately ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine
“Just this week, Zelensky in an interview with Fried Zakaria admitted he was told by Blinken You will not be part of NATO, but we don't want to admit that publicly.”
David Sacks Mar 26, 2022 ▶ 1:03:32 E73: Late-stage VC markdowns and mistakes, market strategy, Ukraine/Russia update with Brad Gerstner
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Bill Burns's 2008 memo called Ukrainian NATO entry Russia's brightest red line
“In 2008, he wrote a memo To Condoleezza Rice, who was then the Secretary of State, and what he said is, this is about Ukrainian entry into NATO, he said, Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all red lines for the Russian elite, not just Putin.”
David Sacks Feb 25, 2022 ▶ 38:57 E70: EMERGENCY POD! Russia invades Ukraine: Reactions, Putin's ambition, Biden's response and more
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Friedberg: White House will confirm Blinken's Ukraine-NATO remarks as official policy
“At the next White House press conference, you will hear the question asked by reporters, is this the White House position? And they will say, yes, it is.”
David Friedberg Apr 5, 2024 ▶ 1:21:50 E173: Google buying HubSpot? FTX depositors not made whole, AI job fears, Ukraine joining NATO
Assertion Contradicted
Sacks: NATO members must spend 2% GDP on approved Western defense contractors
“Because all these countries, when they join NATO, agree to spend two percent of their GDP on defense. And they can only spend that money on defense contractors who are interoperable with the NATO platform, which is basically these approved Western contractors.”
David Sacks Jul 14, 2023 ▶ 1:17:14 E137: Inflation cools, market rips, Ripple/MSFT beat regulators, NATO summit, cocktails of youth
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