The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 30 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Calacanis: Microsoft will release an OpenAI search engine impacting Google
“Microsoft, I think is going to release a and there's a prediction as well, a search engine with Open AI, that has a significant impact on Google's franchise.”
Chamath: Microsoft turned to Anduril after failing a $24B Army contract
“They had a twenty four billion dollar contract with the United States Army to deliver some whiz bang thing. And they realized that they couldn't deliver it. And so what did they do? They went to Anduril.”
Baker: Microsoft's largest GPU cluster remains smaller than xAI's Memphis cluster
“The best information I have is the largest cluster Microsoft has after panicking. It's still smaller than XAI's cluster in Memphis.”
Palihapitiya: Google breakup unlikely, Microsoft-style consent decree very likely
“Again, the big O outcome of breaking up the company, like what happened in Mabel, I don't think that's going to happen here. A little O outcome that is a consent decree similar to the one that Microsoft had to sign is very likely.”
Gurley: Four of Elizabeth Warren's top ten donors are big tech companies
“Four of the top 10 contributors to Elizabeth Warren are Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.”
Chamath predicts Microsoft's $68B acquisition of Activision Blizzard will close
“I still think this Microsoft Activision deal on balance gets done, because if you take the absolute values away from it, The reality is that it's an adjacent part of Microsoft's core business, and there's nothing fundamentally monopolistic about what would hap…”
Gerstner: Nadella reports over 30% ROIC for Microsoft token infrastructure
“Satya is out this week saying, you know, citing Morgan Stanley's report and saying they're seeing over a 30% return on invested capital in tokens as a service, right?”
Chamath: Microsoft and Amazon allocating billions toward forward-deployed engineers
“Microsoft just announced a two and a half billion dollar investment to stand up in FDE, or Amazon is spending a billion dollars to create an FDE.”
Roberts: IREN's $9.7B Microsoft deal uses 5% of its capacity
“We signed a 9.7 billion dollar contract with them late last year, but as I was explaining to you before the show, that's five percent of our capacity, so.”
Calacanis: CoreWeave relies on Microsoft for 60% of its revenue
“They had massive revenue growth, but They have a dependency, 60% of the revenue now from Microsoft”
Calacanis: Big tech companies will buy thousands of $5M Gold Cards
“I gotta tell you, I think out of the gate, Apple, Meta, Microsoft buy, you know, one to 10,000 of these.”
Chamath: Big tech giants raised under $250M total before IPOs
“Less than a quarter billion dollars.”
Chamath: Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon raised under $250M combined
“Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon raised collectively less than two hundred and fifty million dollars.”
Calacanis: Microsoft guaranteed data center power won't raise utility costs
“They basically said, just to catch the audience up, we guarantee you our usage of energy will not increase the cost of your utilities.”
Trump claims Big Tech is investing $320 billion in AI infrastructure
“Meta, Amazon, Google, Microsoft are all investing three hundred and twenty billion dollars or more in data centers and AI infrastructure this year.”
Calacanis: Microsoft laid off 3% of staff and plans massive sales cuts
“It looks like in related news, obviously Microsoft, we talked about the other week, let go of three percent. They're planning on massive cuts again for sales.”
Laffont: Microsoft reported processing 100 trillion AI tokens in Q1
“And Microsoft said that in their Q-one they processed a hundred trillion tokens 50 trillion alone in March.”
Chamath: Microsoft has successfully closed all major acquisition attempts under Brad Smith
“When you look at the track record of his ability post this consent decree to get deals done inside of Microsoft, it's truly incredible. There is nothing that they've really tried to buy, whether it's Nuance or whether it's Mojang or whether it's GitHub. Activi…”
Friedberg: 99.9% of market value for Apple, Microsoft, and Google came post-IPO
“99.9% of their total market value. Was realized post IPO”
Calacanis: Twitter sent a legal notice to Microsoft
“It's turns out Twitter sent a letter over to Microsoft as well.”
Friedberg: Saudi Aramco made $48B net profit in a single quarter
“Saudi Aramco reported their earnings. The largest earnings ever for a company Forty-eight billion dollars of net profit in a quarter. That is more profit than Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, and Tesla combined in a single quarter.”
Major stocks had turned over only 0.5x total shares since peak
“And so far in those stocks, we've only seen half of the total shares outstanding turnover since peak.”
Past market crashes saw stock turnover reach 6x total shares outstanding
“On average, it took six times their total shares outstanding for them to go from top to bottom, meaning that the shares ultimately turned over six X the total, you know, diluted shares out.”
Chamath: Facebook took a 40% valuation haircut during the 2008 crisis
“I remember we raised money from Microsoft at a 15.3 billion dollar valuation. The great financial crisis took hold and Mark to his credit reset the valuation. We were already profitable, so we didn't necessarily need to raise that money, but we, I think we rai…”
Sacks: Yammer sold to Microsoft for 5x Salesforce's $250M acquisition offer
“Anyway, it turned out to be much better for us because we ended up selling the company for five times as much to Microsoft.”
Microsoft's Phi Silica AI model runs locally on Windows NPUs and GPUs
“Like today, there's a five silica model, which is completely resident using NPUs and of course using GPUs.”
Friedberg compares revenue run rates and growth for AWS, Azure, and GCP
“AWS has a hundred twenty-four billion dollar revenue run rate. Microsoft, one hundred twenty billion, and Google Cloud, fifty four billion. But AWS, which is slightly larger than Microsoft, is only growing 17% year over year. Microsoft's 26% year over year, an…”
Calacanis: Microsoft cut 6,000 jobs despite record corporate profits
“Microsoft announced 6000 job layoffs, about three percent of their workforce, while putting up record profits, while being an incredible cash position.”