The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Calacanis: Google will roll over ChatGPT using its distribution advantage
“So I think that Google will roll. I think they're going to roll ChatGPT.”
Sacks: Former employee claimed Google trained its AI using ChatGPT
“And the proof of that is there was just a lawsuit a couple of days ago, or at least a claim by a former employee of Google who quit because he said that they were using ChatGPT to train Their AI.”
OpenAI missed its 2025 revenue target for ChatGPT
“They missed their 2025 revenue target for ChatGPT.”
Calacanis: ChatGPT will likely hit 1 billion users in two months
“They got a billion users or they're trended to a billion. I think they probably hit it in the next month or two.”
Sacks: Yale study shows no job market disruption 33 months after ChatGPT
“This follows on the heels of that study from Yale Budget Lab, which I talked about in a previous show, that it said there's no discernible disruption to the job market based on 33 months of data after the launch of ChatGPT.”
Altman: OpenAI could be legally forced to disclose ChatGPT user logs
“We haven't figured that out yet for when you talk to ChatGPT. So if you go talk to ChatGPT about your most sensitive stuff, and then there's, like, a lawsuit or whatever, like, we could be required to produce that, and I think that's very screwed up.”
Calacanis: Grok 3 has eclipsed Gemini, DeepSeek, Claude, and ChatGPT-4o
“Grok III has now eclipsed Gemini, which is Google's LLM, and DeepSeq from China, Quad, and ChatGPT-IVO.”
Lafont: ChatGPT maintains over 80% market share against AI rivals
“It really is a dominant kind of franchise, right? It is maintaining 80% plus market share.”
Calacanis: ChatGPT consumer market share will drop well under 50%
“They're going to be well under 50% market share, and I think ChatGPT is going to have some big challenges there on the consumer side.”
Kratsios: The EU AI Act was passed before ChatGPT was even invented
“The EU AI act, which has been so detrimental to the AI ecosystem here, here in Europe was passed before chat GPT was even invented.”
Chamath: Meta is about to launch a standalone app competing with ChatGPT
“And Facebook is about to launch a competitor to ChatGPT and Grok, yeah. A standalone app.”
Chamath: US ChatGPT web traffic dropped 25-26% after school year ended
“The traffic in the United States is down about 25, 26% since the end of the school year, which I think reinforces this belief that ChatGPT has definitely over indexed in that young people's cohort where they rely on it to write essays or what have you.”
Calacanis: Facebook and LinkedIn will block ChatGPT from accessing their data
“Somebody like Facebook, when they release their language model, which they're about to, is not going to allow ChatGPT to have any access to the Facebook corpus of data. And then LinkedIn will do the same. They'll block any access to ChatGPT to their data.”
Friedberg estimates a ChatGPT query costs 30 cents, 10x traditional search
“A recent estimate on running the GPT three model for chat GPT is that each result takes about 30 cents of compute. So it's about an order of magnitude higher cost to run that search result than it is to do it through a traditional search query.”
Calacanis: MIT study found 83% of LLM essay writers could not quote their work
“What happened was the LLM user showed severe deficits, quote, in memory and essay ownership, with 83% being unable to quote from the essays they had just written.”
Sacks: ChatGPT holds roughly 80% consumer LLM chatbot market share
“ChatGPT is the leader in consumer. They have something like 80% market share in consumer use of LLM chatbots.”
Gerstner: ChatGPT usage will bounce back to 100M–150M level after summer
“I think that what we're going to see is kids come back to school. You're going to see the normal uptick in traffic. It probably hangs out around this hundred million, hundred and fifty million level in terms of usage.”
Calacanis: OpenAI updated ChatGPT to limit relationship advice and prompt breaks
“OpenAI saw this becoming an issue and they made some healthy use updates to ChatGPT. It's no longer going to tell you whether or not To break up with your boyfriend, to leave your spouse, it prompts you to take a break after long sessions.”