The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 53 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sacks: Anthropic CEO refused White House request to take down Fable
“They tried to call Anthropic, They tried to call Dario, and there were a number of conversations, and the TLDR of it is Dario refused, meaning refused their request to take down Fable until this jailbreak could be fixed.”
Sacks: Anthropic Lobbied to Restrict Nvidia's International Chip Sales
“Anthropic has really been behind a lot of the political activity to restrict Nvidia's sales internationally.”
Calacanis: Anthropic paid $1.5B in the largest US copyright settlement
“Obviously last week we saw anthropic paid the largest copyright case in us history, 1.5 billion for seven million books. They allegedly pirated authors get 3000 each lawyers got a hundred million for that one”
Calacanis: Anthropic is destroying rare books for AI training data
“Anthropic is destroying rare books to get an edge in training data.”
Sacks: Anthropic iterated prompts over 200 times in AI blackmail study
“Remember when Anthropic did the whole blackmail study, you know, where supposedly an agent displayed independent goal-seeking behavior and then blackmail an employee. It turned out that actually they iterated on the prompt over 200 times to get to that result.”
Sacks: Anthropic's ARR grew from $10 billion to over $70 billion
“They started the year at ten billion of ARR. They're now over seventy billion of ARR.”
Sacks: Anthropic CPO resigned from Figma board days before rival launch
“Anthropic's chief product officer had actually even served on Figma's board and didn't resign until three days before the launch of Claude Design.”
Calacanis: Anthropic secretly downgraded users training competing AI models
“If Fable five detects you're doing frontier AI research, in other words, using their model to make a better model, competitive model, they were downgrading you, but they weren't telling you, and this was buried deep in a 319 page documents.”
Sacks asserts Anthropic lobbied against US-backed Gulf AI data center projects
“In the case of the GCC data centers, Anthropic was adamantly opposed to that, and they were lobbying against it, and they were, again, salting the earth against Those projects.”
Sacks: Anthropic has the fastest growing revenue run rate ever seen
“Third, Anthropix revenue run rate is based on what I can tell and what's been publicly released is the fastest growing revenue run rate at scale that I think we've ever seen.”
Emil Michael: Anthropic follows its own constitution, not the US Constitution
“Anthropic has its own constitution. It has its own soul. It's not the U S constitution.”
Emil Michael: Anthropic will be excluded from Pentagon AI contracts under current posture
“And Throbic's not going to be one of them if they continue sort of with their sort of posture.”
Palihapitiya: Anthropic AI safety warnings coincide with fundraising rounds
“It seems that these safety warnings tend to be pretty coincidental with key fundraising moments in Anthropik's journey.”
Gerstner: Frontier AI labs pay 3x to 5x market price for compute
“Right now the shortage is so acute, and the willingness to pay from the Frontier Labs is so high because they all recognize they're on the verge of some massive breakthroughs. That they're willing to pay three, four, five X market pricing in order to get at sc…”
Calacanis: Anthropic downloaded 7 million pirated books to train Claude
“Anthropic downloaded seven million books from pirated websites to train Claude”
Sacks: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei made a seven-figure donation to Public First
“There's one called Public First where Dario just gave his first seven-figure contribution and then a bunch of other employees at Anthropic gave it.”
Sacks: Anthropic retains all Mythos prompts and outputs for 30 days
“They are now retaining for 30 days, every prompt and every output you send to one of these mythos class models. There are no exceptions, even enterprise customers who had signed zero data retention agreements.”
Calacanis: Anthropic signed $45B compute rental deal with SpaceX
“Anthropic is paying SpaceX, wait for it, 1.25 billion a month. To rent out Colossus One and parts of Colossus Two. It's a forty five billion dollar deal over three years, fifteen billion a year.”
Friedberg: OpenAI has 900 million weekly active users
“Open AI, even if they're not at a billion, they're still at nine hundred million weekly users, which is well ahead of whatever Claude is at.”
Sacks asserts Anthropic revenue is growing 10x compared to OpenAI's 3x
“The open AI growth rate's been around three to four X a year. The anthropic growth rate has been around 10 X a year.”
Calacanis: Anthropic secondary shares trading significantly above $380B valuation
“And in the secondary market, OpenAI is trading lower than the last valuation, and Anthropic is trading significantly above the three hundred eighty billion dollar.”
Calacanis: Anthropic's revenue run rate tops $30 billion
“Anthropics revenue run rate has topped thirty billion with a B.”
Emil Michael: Anthropic missed a Pentagon deadline following high-level meeting
“So then that culminated in the Tuesday kind of dramatic meeting with Hexeth and Secretary Hexeth and me and Dario with the Friday deadline that, that got blown.”
Emil Michael: Anthropic retains control plane for AWS GovCloud deployed model
“Yeah, so they put their model in AWS GovCloud. And then Palantir serves it from there. And they refresh it. They held the control plane for the model.”
Friedberg: Google will replicate Anthropic Cowork within 90 days
“I will also say that it's only going to take 90 days for Google to flip on a virtual version of co-work.”
Sachs: Anthropic has a software engineer job listing paying $570k
“Anthropic right now has a job listing for a software engineer on their website right now for 570,000 dollars.”
Baker: Grok 4 performed twice as well as competitors on ARC-AGI II
“And so RKGI-II, it has not seen the questions before, and it did roughly twice as good as, you know, the state-of-the-art Google Open AI and anthropic models.”
Sacks: Former U.S. AI Safety Institute director Elizabeth Kelly joined Anthropic
“Elizabeth Kelly, who was the founding director of the AI Safety Institute in the government, now works at Anthropic.”
Sacks: Leopold Aschenbrenner's wife is Dario Amodei's chief of staff
“And his wife is Dario's chief of staff.”
Calacanis: Anthropic's seven co-founders donated 80% of their shares to a trust
“The seven co-founders of, this is my understanding, it's been documented I think in a bunch of press reports, but they never talk about it. They donated 80% of their shares. So like 10% of Anthropics in some sort of trust”
Calacanis: Anthropic settlement is largest copyright settlement in US history
“Billy, on Monday, largest copyright settlement, Friedberg, in the history of the United States of America.”
Sacks: Anthropic already won AI regulation battles in California, Illinois, and New York
“They've won in a bunch of states. They already won in California and Illinois and New York, and I mean, they're winning in all the blue states and maybe even some red states.”
Chamath: Anthropic could implement KYC identity verification immediately but does not
“Anthropic could implement KYC tomorrow, but it does not.”
Gerstner: Secondary transactions equal 31% of primary VC activity in 2025
“This is the amount of employee secondary. So this is people buying into Anduril, Anthropic, SpaceX, now represents 31% of all primary venture activity. Is buying into these secondaries in 20, 25.”
Calacanis: Over 1,000 enterprises pay Anthropic over $1M annually
“Dario announced a couple of months ago that there's over a thousand enterprises paying over one million annually.”
Gerstner predicts OpenAI and Google will sandbox frontier AI models
“I think that OpenAI will end up doing the same thing. I think Google will end up doing the same thing.”
Chamath: OpenAI revenue is 75% consumer while Anthropic is mostly API
“OpenAI is three quarters consumer subscriptions and a quarter API. Anthropic is almost the exact opposite.”
Calacanis: Anthropic added $6 billion in ARR in February
“Six billion dollars in annual run rate was added in February alone.”
Calacanis: Anthropic reached a $14B run rate in February
“Anthropic hit a fourteen billion dollar run rate last month, February.”
Calacanis: Department of War canceled $200 million Anthropic contract
“The Department of War canceled Anthropic's two hundred million dollar contract on Friday”
Calacanis: Pentagon designating Anthropic a supply-chain risk is historically unprecedented
“This has never happened to an American company.”
Taneja: Anthropic grew 10x to $880M in revenue when General Catalyst invested
“So that business, when we invested, was doing about eight hundred and eighty million dollars, which was a 10 X growth from the year before.”
Friedberg: Anthropic's Claude 3 recreated a novel quantum physics thesis
“There was a guy who wrote a thesis in quantum physics on a very esoteric, complicated problem set. And he asked Claude III to solve this problem set. And it came up with his thesis. It was really like extraordinary. And this is something he's like, no one in t…”
Calacanis: Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 tops nearly every benchmark
“And it tops every benchmark, nearly every benchmark.”
Gerstner: Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic actively coordinate on safety
“The Frontier Model Forum, which was put together in 23 is cooperating on anti and adversarial distillation stuff as we speak, right? They don't want to make it easy on, you know, so Google and OpenAI and Anthropic, they're coordinating on this stuff.”
Emil Michael: Palantir is the Pentagon prime contractor and Anthropic is sub
“Palantir is the prime contractor, their sub.”