The Exchanges

Every argument clarity score on this site is built from rows on this page. Each question and answer was assessed with names hidden, the host's own answers included, on four things from 1 to 5: directness (does it answer the question asked), coherence (do the ideas follow), precision (concrete details and clear references), compression (says a lot per word). The weighted mix (30/30/25/15) is the exchange score. A person's published score averages their exchange scores on raw tape only, at least 8 of them, shrunk toward the cohort mean. Full method →

Michael Newman no published score: only 1 usable exchange on raw tape, and a fair score needs 8+ record → ← everyone

Every exchange below was scored with names hidden, four dimensions each from 1 to 5. An exchange's score is 0.30·directness + 0.30·coherence + 0.25·precision + 0.15·compression. The published score averages the raw tape exchange scores and shrinks small samples toward the cohort mean, so five great answers can't beat twenty good ones. Produced feed rows count only toward coarse estimates, never toward a full score.

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1exchanges match
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Answered raw tape D 5 · C 4 · P 4 · Cm 4 4.30

Q see that Fox Has Biden at a 129 electoral votes and Trump at a 109. And, um, some of the other networks have it much lower. How do the networks make these decisions of when to call a state? Because it's too early according to many to call Florida, but we're sitting here with a pretty clear understanding of where Florida is at. Does anybody have any thoughts on that?

A Well, I think they're erring on the side of extreme caution because of the strange year that it is and the fact that there is all this. We had a hundred, over a hundred million votes banked early. Through the mail or through early in-person voting, and nobody's sure how many more mail ballots, according to one side I looked at, there were still twenty-seven million ballots outstanding. Now some of those are redundant ballots, like David's father-in-law who got three ballots in the mail in Pennsylvania, and a lot of those are probably going in the trash, but there could be another five to ten million of those to come in that are postmarked by today. Many states will accept them after the election, as long as they're postmarked by Election Day. So they're probably being very, very careful that they don't make a premature call. Of course, they all have PTSD about what happened in 2000 when they first prematurely called Florida for Al Gore, then prematurely called it for George W. Bush, and we spent the next 37 days trying to figure out what the hell happened in Florida. So, uh, I think they're going to err on the side of extreme caution across the board. Although, uh, I feel like the margin in Florida at this point is

AI assessment note: “they're erring on the side of extreme caution because of the strange year”

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