Apr 10, 2026 · 1h 29m · allin
Anthropic’s $30B Ramp, Mythos Doomsday, OpenClaw Ankled, Iran War Ceasefire, Israel's Influence
Jason Calacanis · 28m spoken Brad Gerstner · 19m spoken David Sacks · 16m spoken Chamath Palihapitiya · 13m spoken
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In this episode of the All-In Podcast, the hosts analyze Anthropic's massive revenue growth, AI safety debates, and competitive shifts in the AI ecosystem alongside geopolitical updates on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and foreign policy dynamics.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 75% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 5.9 Guest teaching 3.4 Guest disagreement 2.4 The hosts pushing back 3.8
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 30:26 Brad rejects JCal's OpenClaw conspiracy theory
Brad forcefully dismisses JCal's premise that major AI companies are conspiring to destroy OpenClaw, insisting that multi-functional agents are simply what enterprise customers demand.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 19:45 Chamath challenges Brad's 100-day sandboxing timelineChamath directly confronts Brad's defense of Anthropic's 100-day safety window, asserting that pushing minor PRs in 100 days does virtually nothing to secure core internet infrastructure.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 44:14 Brad provides staggering monthly revenue figures for AnthropicBrad educates the hosts on Anthropic's unprecedented commercial growth, highlighting that its monthly run-rate additions alone match the combined total revenues of Databricks and Palantir.
The host holds their own ▶ 9:51 Sacks analyzes Anthropic's history of fear-based marketingSacks demonstrates detailed product knowledge by recalling how Anthropic prompted their model over 200 times in a past study to reverse-engineer alarming blackmail headlines for marketing purposes.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exploring 'Retard Maxing' and Elisha Long's Life Philosophy | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Chamath explains the lifestyle philosophy of content creator Elisha Long regarding detachment and non-rumination. The hosts and guest engage in lighthearted peer banter without intense pushback or deep technical schooling. | |
| Anthropic Withholds Mythos and Launches Project Glasswing | 7 | 4 | 2 | 6 | Sacks challenges Brad's praise of Anthropic's Project Glasswing by citing specific historical examples, such as Anthropic's blackmail study, where prompts were heavily reverse-engineered for PR impact. Brad provides context on defensive AI alliances and sandboxing protocols. | |
| Debating AI Safety Theater versus Genuine Cyber Threats | 8 | 3 | 5 | 8 | Chamath aggressively challenges the framing of AI safety theater, citing the 2019 GPT-2 rollout as historical precedent. He directly confronts Brad by questioning how many code pull requests can realistically be patched across core internet infrastructure in a 100-day sandboxing period. | |
| Anthropic Ankles OpenClaw and the Agent Competitive Landscape | 7 | 4 | 4 | 7 | Sacks and JCal press Brad on whether Anthropic's pricing changes for OpenClaw users constitute anti-competitive bundling or price dumping. Brad refutes conspiracy claims and defends Anthropic's pricing as a necessary commercial measure for API power users. | |
| AI Coding Market Share and Enterprise Tech Debt | 8 | 3 | 5 | 7 | Sacks corners Brad with a direct yes/no question about Anthropic holding dominant token share in AI coding. Chamath grounds the broader discussion by citing real-world enterprise tech debt and 60-year-old pensioners needed to maintain legacy codebases. | |
| Open Source AI vs. Proprietary Enterprise Systems | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | Chamath and JCal analyze open-source pre-training projects like BitTensor Subnet 62 and Venice as potential threats to high-capex proprietary frontier models. Brad listens as the hosts detail the limits of enterprise adoption for open-source production code. | |
| Anthropic's Unprecedented $30B Revenue Ramp | 6 | 7 | 2 | 2 | Brad educates the hosts on Anthropic's unprecedented $30B revenue run-rate growth, noting that its monthly additions alone surpass the combined revenue of Databricks and Palantir. The hosts ask clarifying questions about compute bottlenecks. | |
| AI Profitability, Margin Trajectories, and Hyperscaler Capex | 8 | 6 | 4 | 7 | Chamath scrutinizes the difference between gross and net revenue reporting in AI startups and challenges optimism around cash burn. Brad counters that expanding gross margins and lower headcount render these companies far less cash-intensive than perceived. | |
| Frontier Model Rivalries: Anthropic Focus vs. OpenAI's 'Spud' | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | Brad offers insider perspective on OpenAI's upcoming Blackwell-trained model Spud and defends OpenAI against negative market chatter. JCal questions OpenAI's strategic pivots away from consumer projects like Sora. | |
| Prediction Markets, VC Anxiety, and Value Capture in the AI Stack | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2 | Sacks outlines the migration of value capture across the AI stack from chips and hyperscalers to models and applications. Brad provides venture perspective on software stock declines and Altimeter's barbell investment strategy. | |
| Event Announcements: Sold-Out 'Liquidity' and All-In Summit | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Standard event announcements and podcast housekeeping regarding the sold-out Liquidity conference and the All-In Summit. Scores are kept at baseline due to the administrative nature of the conversation. | |
| Iran War Updates, Ceasefire Negotiations, and Market Resilience | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | Sacks and Brad discuss the Iran war ceasefire negotiations and diplomatic trips. Brad contextualizes market resilience during the conflict compared to previous market drawdowns like tariffs. | |
| US Foreign Policy, Trump's Iran Decision, and Israel's Influence | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | Sacks highlights a translated post from former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett acknowledging declining public support for Israel in the United States. Chamath analyzes geopolitical off-ramps and long-term diplomatic strategy. | |
| X's AI Auto-Translation, Platform Efficiency, and Follower Dynamics | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | The group discusses X's automated AI translation feature and platform workforce reduction under Elon Musk. Conversation concludes with casual banter about follower counts, subscriber replies, and charitable donations. |
Statements from this episode (31)
Gerstner predicts OpenAI and Google will sandbox frontier AI models
“I think that OpenAI will end up doing the same thing. I think Google will end up doing the same thing.”
Sachs: Anthropic has a pattern of using fear to market products
“These guys, I'm not saying it's not sincere, but they have a proven pattern of using fear as a way to market their new products.”
Sachs: Chinese open-source AI models lag US frontier models by six months
“We know that like, let's say the Chinese open source models like Kimi K two, it's about six months behind.”
Chamath: Anthropic is "shooting the lights out" in execution and adoption
“Anthropic is shooting the lights out right now. This is like Steph Curry going bananas. From every, everywhere on the court, these guys are hucking threes.”
Gerstner: Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic actively coordinate on safety
“The Frontier Model Forum, which was put together in 23 is cooperating on anti and adversarial distillation stuff as we speak, right? They don't want to make it easy on, you know, so Google and OpenAI and Anthropic, they're coordinating on this stuff.”
Sachs: Wave of patches over next few months will resolve AI cyber risk
“So my guess is we're going to see a lot of patches over the next few months. I think that that will resolve the problem.”
Calacanis: AI tools increased deployed code volume by 10x to 100x
“The most important thing that people haven't talked about here is the amount of code being pushed right now because of these tools is 10 X, a hundred X in most organizations.”
Calacanis predicts open-source AI will capture 90% of total LLM token usage
“I believe open source is going to win the day on the large language models and take 90% of the token usage, and I think the entire frontier model space could be undercut by open source”
Chamath: AI-enabled coding represents only 5% of the software market
“AI enabled coding, I think is still five percent of the broad market.”
Chamath: Fixing legacy enterprise tech debt with AI will take decades
“Untying this Gordian knot, it's going to take decades to do it right.”
Calacanis: Bridges AI reached 80% of Claude 4 performance for $1M
“They spent about a million dollars in TAO, like rewards, and in 45 days they hit 80% of what Claude IV is, and they did that in under 45 days.”
Chamath: No valuable company will ever outsource production code to open source
“I would put zero, literally the probability zero. Of any important company worth anything more than a dollar, having an outsourcing their production code to an open source project. That'll never happen.”
Sacks: AI-generated code will reach 95% within a few years
“So number one is with respect to this market for code or code tokens, whatever you want to call it might be five percent today, meaning five percent of the codes, AI generated versus human generated. I think it's going to 95%. I mean, I bet any amount of money…”
Sacks: Anthropic has the fastest growing revenue run rate ever seen
“Third, Anthropix revenue run rate is based on what I can tell and what's been publicly released is the fastest growing revenue run rate at scale that I think we've ever seen.”
Calacanis: Anthropic's revenue run rate tops $30 billion
“Anthropics revenue run rate has topped thirty billion with a B.”
Calacanis: Over 1,000 enterprises pay Anthropic over $1M annually
“Dario announced a couple of months ago that there's over a thousand enterprises paying over one million annually.”
Gerstner: Big companies run 65-70% of AI tokens on open source
“I've talked to a lot of big companies, 65 to 70% of their token consumption is open source model, right?”
Gerstner: Anthropic could hit $80B-$100B revenue run rate by year-end
“I would not be shocked if you see Anthropic exiting this year at 80 to a hundred billion dollars in revenue.”
Gerstner: AI inference cost is down 90% year over year
“Inference cost is down by 90% year over year.”
Gerstner: Hyperscaler commissions account for single-digit percent of revenue
“I will just tell you that you're talking single digit percentage of total revenue of these companies.”
Sachs: Top four hyperscalers will spend $350B on capex this year
“Again, just the top four hyperscalers, three hundred and fifty billion dollars of expected capex this year on its way.”
Calacanis: Anthropic secondary shares trading significantly above $380B valuation
“And in the secondary market, OpenAI is trading lower than the last valuation, and Anthropic is trading significantly above the three hundred eighty billion dollar.”
Gerstner is buying OpenAI shares despite negative market sentiment
“I'm a buyer of the shares today, notwithstanding all of the vibes that you describe.”
Gerstner: Altimeter has billions invested in both Anthropic and OpenAI
“No, we've got billions of both companies.”
Gerstner: VCs are terrified to invest outside frontier AI, SpaceX, and defense
“Venture capitalists are terrified to invest money in anything other than these frontier models and things like SpaceX or military modernization.”
Gerstner: A Russia-Ukraine deal is getting close
“I think we're getting close to a deal on Ukraine, Russia.”
Gerstner: Stock market could take off if foreign policy deals land
“You could envision a world, there's risk to the downside, certainly, I will stipulate, but you also have to pay attention to the risk to the upside. If you land the plane on those things, heading into America, two 50, July fourth, the market could really take …”
Chamath: The US and Israel will find an off-ramp in Iran war
“All of that kind of tells me that we will find an off ramp.”