May 21, 2020 · 1h 6m · allin
E3: Modern Cold War, politicizing the pandemic & more with David Sacks & David Friedberg
Chamath Palihapitiya · 16m spoken Jason Calacanis · 14m spoken David Sacks · 14m spoken David Friedberg · 14m spoken
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of the All-In Podcast, hosts Jason Calacanis and Chamath Palihapitiya join tech investors David Sacks and David Friedberg to discuss the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on public health policy, the economy, remote work, political polarization, and US-China relations.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.9% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 4.6 Guest teaching 5.1 Guest disagreement 2.5 The hosts pushing back 2.9
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 53:30 Chamath dismisses European work ethic during geopolitical debate
Chamath aggressively shuts down historical comparisons by provocatively asserting that Europeans were genetically bred to be lazy oligarchs needing an excuse.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 52:05 Jason refuses Chamath's stance on moral relativism toward ChinaJason directly rejects Chamath's claim that Americans have no right to judge China, passionately arguing that state-sponsored torture and suppression of free speech must be condemned.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 35:20 Friedberg details clinical risks and trial flaws of HydroxychloroquineFriedberg educates the hosts on cellular energy inhibition, cardiac long QT intervals, and retinal toxicity, explaining why clinical trial timing dictates therapeutic efficacy.
The host holds their own ▶ 21:42 Chamath dismantles the stock market V-shape illusionChamath demonstrates deep macroeconomic expertise by contrasting Federal Reserve asset expansion with 30 million unemployed workers and the split between asset-heavy and digital companies.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Sacks on Mexico Bunker, Craft Ventures, and SF Real Estate | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | Light bantering start where Jason and Chamath ask David Sacks about relocating his family to a bunker in Mexico and using Yammer at Craft Ventures. Sacks explains Craft's remote workflow and optimism about returning to office spaces eventually. | |
| Chamath Palihapitiya on Mental Health and Extended Shelter-in-Place | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Chamath expresses personal shelter-in-place fatigue and lack of motivation, while David Friedberg shares insights into widespread mental health struggles across company boards and the necessity of daily routines. | |
| Reassessing the Pandemic and Politicization of Lockdowns | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | Chamath and Sacks discuss how the pandemic response has split along partisan political lines. Sacks highlights his earlier prediction that overreaction to COVID-19 would cause an economic depression. | |
| David Sacks on Fatality Rates, Vulnerable Demographics, and Universal Masks | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | Sacks educates the room on three emerging facts: infection fatality rates (IFR) being lower than official case fatality rates (CFR), age-stratified vulnerability for under-60 populations, and universal masking as an alternative to economic lockdowns. | |
| David Friedberg on Lockdown Ineffectiveness and Berkeley Frat Parties | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | Friedberg reflects on early WHO data and candidly admits overestimating lockdown effectiveness, sharing video footage of unmasked Berkeley college students hosting crowded frat parties. | |
| Economic Reopening and Anti-Lockdown Protest Critiques | 7 | 3 | 3 | 5 | When Jason challenges Chamath on the stock market's rapid V-shaped recovery, Chamath forcefully explains that trillions in Fed liquidity inflate stock assets while 30 million unemployed Americans reflect real economic distress. | |
| Economic Recovery Timelines and Long-Term Unemployment Concerns | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | Sacks projects a two-to-three-year timeline to recover lost jobs, warning of oncoming default waves. Chamath points out structural distortions in labor force participation numbers. | |
| COVID-19 Second Wave Projections and NYC Subway Transmission | 5 | 7 | 1 | 3 | Jason asks if second-wave spikes will mirror New York's catastrophic outbreak. Friedberg breaks down an MIT study demonstrating subways as NYC's primary transmission vector compared to lower-density cities. | |
| Balancing Risk and 2020 Presidential Election Dynamics | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | Chamath and Sacks discuss how public fatigue over prolonged lockdowns creates electoral tailwinds for Trump in the 2020 election, framing the conflict as an ideological culture war. | |
| Scientific Debates and Politicization of Hydroxychloroquine | 4 | 8 | 1 | 2 | Friedberg delivers a structured scientific breakdown of Hydroxychloroquine, explaining heart toxicity risks like long QT intervals and how lack of clinical trial design clarity fuels political division. | |
| Silicon Valley Network Effects and Corporate Efficiency | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | Jason proposes a thesis that remote work corporate efficiencies will drive an economic turnaround. Chamath sharply dismisses Jason's argument, stating 'Hope is not a strategy.' | |
| Remote Work Culture and Critiques of San Francisco Mismanagement | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | Chamath forcefully criticizes San Francisco municipal management, citing property crime and public health concerns while celebrating the shift away from mandatory physical office spaces. | |
| Modern US-China Cold War and Geopolitical Ideology | 7 | 4 | 7 | 8 | A heated clash erupts over geopolitical ideology when Chamath argues for pragmatic national survival without moral judgment of China. Jason fiercely pushes back, insisting human rights abuses must be condemned. | |
| Bipartisan Decoupling, Strategic Supply Chains, and TikTok | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | Sacks outlines how US-China supply chain decoupling has become a bipartisan stance, differentiating critical national security goods like pharmaceuticals from consumer trade like TikTok. | |
| Leapfrogging Chinese Manufacturing Through Automation | 6 | 8 | 2 | 2 | Friedberg argues that US manufacturing cannot replicate China's 112 million factory workers manually and must instead leapfrog Chinese capacity through advanced automation, 3D printing, and bio-manufacturing. |
Statements from this episode (32)
Craft Ventures completed four or five deals since quarantine started
“We've done four or five deals, I think, since the whole kind of quarantine started.”
David Sacks believes permanent work-from-home sentiment is likely overrated
“I think, you know, the idea that everyone wants to work out of like a small room and, you know, extra room in their house, I think is probably, Getting, it's probably a little overrated. I think people would like to get back to the office.”
Chamath Palihapitiya says he is losing motivation under COVID lockdown
“I'll just be honest. And I think that my sentiments are the sentiments of a lot of people. It's really tough. Really, really tough. I, I'm losing all my motivation to be quite honest.”
Friedberg predicts workers will need to return to physical offices post-pandemic
“I think it speaks a lot to why we're going to need to go back to offices when this is all done.”
Friedberg reports food supply chain portfolio companies are performing fantastically well
“The larger companies, we have a number of food businesses that happen to be in the food supply chain one way or another. Frankly, those businesses are doing fantastically well.”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts COVID-19 will be controlled within two years
“I think that we will have this pandemic or this disease well in hand within two years. And so whether it's a combination of a therapeutic and a vaccine or just a therapeutic I just think that we're going to kick its ass.”
David Sacks asserts no US hospitals were overwhelmed during initial lockdowns
“Well, nowhere in the country did the hospitals get overwhelmed”
David Sacks claims official COVID fatality rate is overstated by 10x
“The official fatality rate has been over, which is about six percent. You know, it's a very high fatality rate. It's pretty scary, but we now know that that's overstated by probably at least 10 X.”
Sacks: Ubiquitous mask wearing is sufficient to stop exponential viral growth
“Wide-scale use of masks, sort of ubiquitous mask wearing is sufficient to control the virus, meaning to stop the exponentiality of the virus.”
David Friedberg admits betting US COVID-19 deaths would stay under 20,000
“I asked you guys, or you guys asked me when I thought we'd be back, and I was like, oh, April seventh, we'll be back to work, and I also had a bet going with you guys, and I said we're gonna have less than 20,000 deaths in the US.”
Chamath: Stock market recovery is buoyed by Fed dollars, not economic reality
“It is a equity market that is buoyed by Fed dollars that is not mapping to the reality of what's happening on the ground.”
David Sacks predicts US economic recovery will take two to three years
“Looking forward you know, I, it's probably gonna be a two to three year process to get out of this, unless some other shoe drops, which could make it much worse.”
Chamath Palihapitiya asserts Obama and Trump manipulated US unemployment statistics
“The unemployment numbers that we have had in the last probably seven or eight years. So during Obama and Trump have been completely manipulated because the number of people that are entirely leaving the workforce is quite high.”
Friedberg: MIT study identified subway as NYC's primary COVID vector
“Great paper out of MIT, by the way, that shows how this happened on the subway. Identified the subway as kind of the primary vector that drove transmission in New York city.”
Friedberg: US cities will not experience NYC-style second wave
“You're not going to see that in Dallas. You're not going to see that in Houston. You're not going to see that in San Diego. You're going to have more of the slow, steady burn as some risk is taken in the environment. Some risk is taken by frat parties and peop…”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts Donald Trump will win the 2020 election
“I think that Donald Trump is overwhelmingly likely to win as a function of people's frustration about the lockdowns.”
Sacks: Lockdown backlash will supersede COVID response incompetence in November 2020
“The unwillingness to end the lockdowns gives Trump an issue for November, assuming this continues that supersedes the incompetence of the COVID response, which is that, you know, our lives and livelihoods are not owned by politicians to You know, meter out and…”
Friedberg: Hydroxychloroquine can cause fatal heart issues and long QT interval
“There's like side effects to this drug for a small percentage of the population. And this drug can actually inhibit energy production in certain cells, which can cause organs to dysfunction. And it particularly shows up in the heart. So people end up with what…”
Friedberg: Lack of clear scientific consensus drives political polarization
“And when there's a lot of room for debate, you usually kind of revert to some sort of base belief or some base kind of political point of view or something. And I think that's what's gone on here.”
David Sacks predicts remote work will break Silicon Valley's network effect
“I think there is some chance that this whole remote work thing could break Silicon Valley's network effect, and that would be really bad for places like San Francisco, which, you know, otherwise might not be the greatest places to live.”
Calacanis: Remote work could create unprecedented company efficiency and profitability
“My thesis on this in terms of getting out of the recession, I think remote work could lead to a level of efficiency and profitability in the companies that we have never seen before.”
Chamath Palihapitiya calls San Francisco a complete cesspool dump
“Specifically, San Francisco is just a complete cesspool dump of shit.”
David Sacks reveals Yammer paid $20 per square foot in 2009
“When we moved Yammer to San Francisco, which was 2009, I think we were able to get space for 20 dollars a foot per year.”
Chamath predicts people will leave California in droves
“I think people will, are going to leave in droves, honestly.”
David Friedberg predicts infectious diseases could be eradicated in 20 years
“I think in 20 years we could kind of eradicate all infectious disease. The only thing holding that up is regulation, because the science is known, the engineering is basically there, and it's simply a function of getting these things approved and getting acros…”
Chamath Palihapitiya claims China is a stronger adversary than the USSR
“This is the beginning of the modern cold war. And so it's America versus China. Except that China is a much more worthy adversary for us than the USSR, SSR was at their peak.”
Chamath: Social Capital made only one credit deal in three months
“I have not done any investments, and I just did my first. So it's been three months, and I did, and it was a credit deal, so it's not even equity.”
Sacks: US economic decoupling from China will become a bipartisan issue
“Decoupling from China is going to be a bipartisan issue now. I think both candidates now will be, well, Trump is going to run blaming China for what happened. And I don't think Biden's going to be defending China. In fact, they're going to try and peg him with…”
Sacks: Critical medical manufacturing will return from China to US
“It doesn't really make sense for us to be dependent on China for our antibiotics, for our medicines, for our PPE, for any of these You know, any of these products that are important for national survival I think all that stuff is going to come back home.”
David Friedberg estimates reshoring China manufacturing would increase consumer costs 5x
“And that just wouldn't fucking be possible. Like we don't have enough people to work. We don't have the ability to do that. The cost of everything would go up by five X.”
Friedberg: 40% to 60% of unexposed people have SARS-CoV-2 reactive T-cells
“This paper came out a few days ago that shows that 40 to 60% of the population that has never been exposed to SARS coronavirus two, the current coronavirus, Already have activated T cells to the virus.”
Friedberg: Scientists will not map SARS-CoV-2 genotype responses within two years
“We are very, like with any virus, we know very little about how it affects a specific human based on their genotype, meaning based on your health and your genes. Here's what this virus is going to do to your body. And we're not going to know that in two years.”