Jul 3, 2021 · 1h 26m · allin
E38: Bestie brawl, Robinhood's $70M fine & S-1, Delta variant, next gen candidates & more
David Sacks · 24m spoken David Friedberg · 21m spoken Jason Calacanis · 19m spoken Chamath Palihapitiya · 12m spoken
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In Episode 38 of The All-In Podcast, the co-hosts resolve an intense public dispute between David Sachs and Jason Calacanis before analyzing Robinhood's S-1 filing, COVID-19 Delta variant data, national political developments, Big Tech antitrust regulation, and bureaucratic overreach.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.5% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 6.5 Guest teaching 2.8 Guest disagreement 3.5 The hosts pushing back 3.4
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 12:34 Sacks confronts Calacanis over political labeling
Sacks forcefully accuses Calacanis of intentionally labeling him as a Tucker Carlson or Trump follower to stigmatize him in Silicon Valley and damage his business.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 59:15 Calacanis challenges Sacks on Trump Org indictmentCalacanis firmly rejects Sacks and Palihapitiya's 'nothing burger' characterization of the Trump Organization CFO indictment, citing 15 felony counts and deliberate book falsification.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 52:40 Friedberg explains actuarial life-years-lost metricsFriedberg educates the panel on actuarial science, explaining why evaluating pandemic policy through total life-years lost provides a more accurate assessment than binary death counts.
The host holds their own ▶ 1:17:09 Sacks connects tech censorship to bipartisan antitrust backingSacks demonstrates sharp political insight by illustrating how big tech's aggressive content moderation turned conservative lawmakers against them, galvanizing 21 Republican senators to support antitrust measures.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bestie Feud & Moderation Feud Resolution | 4 | 5 | 8 | 7 | Sacks and Calacanis engage in an intense argument over Twitter drama, airtime metrics, and political labeling. Calacanis defends his point-guard moderation style while Sacks accuses him of trying to stigmatize him with 'Tucker' and 'Trump' labels to harm his business. | |
| Robinhood's S-1 Filing, FINRA Fine & Venture Capital Distribution Strategies | 8 | 3 | 3 | 4 | The hosts discuss Robinhood's S-1 filing, its FINRA fine, and venture capital share distribution mechanics. Palihapitiya argues VCs should distribute shares immediately post-lockup rather than speculating on public market returns. | |
| Analyzing Delta Variant Data and Infection Transmissibility Rates | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Friedberg details UK epidemiological data regarding the Delta variant's 1.3 reproduction rate and its inverse relationship with vaccination levels. The group discusses whether public policy responses match actual epidemiological risk. | |
| Debating California Mask Mandates, School Reopenings, and Teachers Unions | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | Sacks critiques California mask mandates and teachers unions for delaying school reopenings. Calacanis asks him to elaborate on why separate policies for children are unreasonable. | |
| Examining the JAMA Study on CO2 Levels in Masked Children | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Friedberg presents data from a JAMA study measuring elevated CO2 levels under surgical masks in children. He contrasts potential respiratory health impacts against low viral transmission risks in outdoor settings. | |
| Gavin Newsom Recall Strategy and Actuarial Life-Years-Lost Metrics | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Friedberg explains actuarial life-years-lost metrics versus binary death counts to evaluate public health policies. Sacks discusses how school reopening mandates could impact the Gavin Newsom recall election. | |
| Evaluating Vaccine Mix-and-Match Strategies and Hesitancy Demographics | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | The panel discusses mixing vaccine types and vaccine hesitancy demographics. Sacks calls on prominent political figures on the right to publicly promote vaccination efficacy. | |
| Legal Analysis of Trump Organization CFO Indictment | 7 | 3 | 5 | 6 | Sacks and Palihapitiya frame the Trump Organization CFO indictment as a minor T&E violation used for political leverage. Calacanis pushes back, pointing out 15 felony charges and a systematic 15-year tax avoidance scheme. | |
| January 6 Insurrection Commission and DC Political Fatigue | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | Palihapitiya and Sacks reflect on voter fatigue with partisan investigations and advocate for younger, centrist candidates. Palihapitiya argues that neither Biden nor Trump represents a viable long-term future. | |
| Assessing 2024 Presidential Contenders and Washington Gerontocracy | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | Sacks analyzes potential 2024 presidential candidates, highlighting Ron DeSantis's coalition building between establishment and populist Republicans. The group critiques the age of top Congressional and executive leaders. | |
| FTC Big Tech Antitrust Cases and Online Speech Regulation | 8 | 3 | 4 | 4 | The besties analyze the FTC's dismissed case against Facebook and Amazon's recusal petition against Lina Khan. Sacks explains how big tech's content moderation practices alienated conservatives, driving bipartisan support for antitrust reform. | |
| Sha'Carri Richardson Olympic Suspension and Bureaucratic Legalism | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | The panel unanimously criticizes the USADA suspension of sprinter Sha'Carri Richardson for marijuana use, calling it rigid bureaucratic legalism. Palihapitiya contrasts cannabis use with heavy opioid prescriptions in professional sports. | |
| Resolving the Podcast Feud Through Chess and Final Banter | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | The hosts wind down as Sacks describes how Calacanis sending him a chess match request signaled that their feud was over. The group ends with lighthearted banter. |
Statements from this episode (25)
Chamath: All-In Podcast reaches 1M weekly listeners and could hit 10M
“We're at a million fucking people a week, we could be a ten million people a fucking week, and we could fucking own the distribution of our ideas to millions and millions of people.”
Sacks: Robinhood will IPO at a $50B-$70B valuation
“Now they're going to be able to IPO at like a 50, 60, seventy billion dollar valuation”
Calacanis: Robinhood investment will return 3x-4x Launch Fund 1
“This one deal will do three or four times the value of the first fund, the launch fund one, which was eleven million dollars.”
Chamath: Early-stage VCs trying to time public markets never works
“Early stage venture investors thinking that they're public market investors, trying to time the market, trying to figure out how to do distributions, and it never works.”
Friedberg: Study shows COVID lockdowns had no effect on US reproduction rate
“A recent paper showed that lockdowns had no effect. On the reproduction rate in the United States”
Friedberg: SARS-CoV-2 will remain endemic forever and cycle through variants
“SARS-CoV- two is going to be here forever, and it is going to cycle through variants.”
Sacks: Public schools will not offer five-day in-person learning in fall
“So, I think you could be in a situation where we do not have, they will call it school reopening, but we will not have five day a week in-person learning”
Sacks: Children face very low risk of COVID transmission or serious illness
“They're at very low risk for getting the virus. They're very low risk for transmitting the virus if they get it. And even if they get it, they're at almost no risk for it being harmful or, you know, to cause serious illness or death.”
Sacks: Teachers union restrictions are excuses to avoid returning to work
“And it really seems like the real point is to create excuses for the teachers not to have to go back to work.”
Friedberg: Delta variant will not crush US hospital system or cause massive fatalities
“There are enough people, people vaccinated in the United States at this point that this Delta variant is not going to crush our hospital system. It's not going to cause massive amount of fatalities, which is the reason we went into lockdowns in the first place…”
Sacks: Delta variant could sweep low-vaccination states in fall 2021
“In a place like that, you could see the Delta variant sweep through in the fall, and you could see a lot of cases.”
Sacks: Right-wing leaders hurt voters by failing to endorse COVID vaccines
“I don't think the leaders on the right are doing anyone Any favors, any of their voters any favors by not coming out and saying, look, the vaccines work.”
Sacks: Trump CFO Allen Weisselberg will not flip on Donald Trump
“It does look like persecution rather than prosecution, and what they're trying to do is they're going after this guy, Wesselheim, to squeeze him to try and roll over on Trump. Well, good luck with that. That's about as likely To happen as Putin releasing the p…”
Sacks: Democratic prosecution will make Trump look like a victim and backfire
“These democratic pit bull prosecutors, they are going to make Trump look like the victim here. This will rebound, I think, in a negative way.”
Chamath: Donald Trump and Joe Biden will both be one-term presidents
“Both of these two guys are one term presidents. I think that is abundantly clear.”
Sacks: Ron DeSantis will sweep to victory in 2022 Florida gubernatorial race
“It looks like he, now, he's running for re-election in Florida in twenty-twenty-two, so that's on his plate, and, but I think it looks like he's going to Sweep to victory.”
Sacks: Strong 2022 win makes DeSantis the 2024 Republican frontrunner
“If he wins reelection in 2022 by a strong margin, I think he does become the putative frontrunner For 20, 24.”
Sacks: Nikki Haley will fail to perform in Republican primary straw polls
“Nikki Haley, I think, you know, everybody who sort of reads elite media is going to over-index on her, but if you go to the straw polls and the rallies, she's not, just not going to perform in those polls.”
Sacks: FTC Chair Lina Khan will not be recused regarding Amazon
“There's no way this is gonna fly. There's no way she's gonna get recused”
Sacks: Big Tech antitrust legislation will pass the US Senate
“I think it's going to go through. I think we are going to see some big changes.”
Sacks: Facebook has the weakest antitrust breakup case among Big Tech
“I do think that of all the big tech companies, the argument for breaking up Facebook is the weakest”
Sacks: Amazon, Google, and Apple are clearly monopolies or duopolies
“Those companies are clearly Monopolies are duopolies in their spaces.”