Jan 23, 2021 · 1h 23m · allin
E18: Inauguration talk, breaking down the $1.9T stimulus, the case for recalling Gavin Newsom & more
Chamath Palihapitiya · 21m spoken David Friedberg · 19m spoken David Sacks · 19m spoken Jason Calacanis · 15m spoken
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In Episode 18 of The All-In Podcast, the co-hosts analyze President Biden's inauguration and $1.9 trillion stimulus package, debate Big Tech censorship and economic inequality, and evaluate the growing campaign to recall California Governor Gavin Newsom. Across these topics, the hosts discuss political realignment, civil liberties, fiscal responsibility, and market-driven governance solutions.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.6% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 6.7 Guest teaching 1.9 Guest disagreement 3.3 The hosts pushing back 2.8
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 55:25 Chamath dismissing Sacks's option pool defense as bullshit
Chamath directly calls out Sacks's claim that startup options solve labor inequality, forcefully arguing that tech stock options only enrich 10,000 workers while displacing two million jobs.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 28:35 Jason pressing Friedberg for a direct stance on reinstating TrumpJason refuses Friedberg's broader regulatory framing and repeatedly presses him for a clear yes or no answer on whether he would reinstate Trump's account if he were CEO.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 48:12 Friedberg educating the group on biomanufacturing economicsFriedberg delivers a detailed breakdown of biomanufacturing yields (4g/L) and facility costs ($200M per 500k liter tank), explaining how targeted federal spending could secure future vaccine independence.
The host holds their own ▶ 38:07 Friedberg recounting FBI interception of Climate Corp employee stealing source codeFriedberg demonstrates domain expertise by sharing a real-world corporate espionage case where the FBI intercepted a Climate Corp scientist at the airport carrying nitrogen model code base files bound for China.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celebrating Biden's Inauguration and Political Transition | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | The co-hosts share personal reactions to Biden's inauguration, with Chamath speaking emotionally about family travel and employee hiring while Friedberg reflects on the divided electorate. | |
| Political Reconciliation, Retribution, and Civil Liberty Risks | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | Sacks outlines civil liberty concerns around big tech censorship and Adam Schiff's proposed domestic Patriot Act bill, while Chamath cites Rasmussen approval statistics. | |
| Pelosi Laptop Case and the Besties Reconciliation Dinner | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | Jason references the Pelosi laptop theft case before transitioning to how podcast tension prompted Chamath to organize a besties reconciliation dinner. | |
| Trump's Second Impeachment and the Patriot Party Threat | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | Friedberg calculates how a third-party Patriot Party would shift political centers, Sacks cites Teddy Roosevelt's Bull Moose party precedent, and Jason presses Sacks on whether the GOP should bar Trump from running. | |
| Centrist Politics in Miami and Trump's Legacy as a Disruptor | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Chamath praises Miami Mayor Francis Suarez's centrist economic policies while Sacks highlights Trump's foreign policy realignments regarding China and Middle East wars. | |
| Big Tech Censorship, Facebook Oversight, and Common Carrier Rules | 8 | 3 | 4 | 4 | The group debates tech censorship models; Friedberg analyzes Android open-source and Twitter Bluesky history while Sacks advocates Richard Epstein's common carrier framework. | |
| Big Tech Valuations, Decentralized Protocols, and TikTok Concerns | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | Chamath explains how big tech price-to-earnings ratios reflect market expectations of utility-style government regulation. | |
| Chinese Corporate Espionage, Jack Ma, and US Counterintelligence | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Friedberg recounts a real corporate espionage event where the FBI intercepted an employee stealing Climate Corp source code for China, and Sacks cites FBI Director Wray's counterintelligence statistics. | |
| Breaking Down the $1.9 Trillion Stimulus and Biomanufacturing Needs | 9 | 2 | 3 | 3 | Friedberg breaks down the $1.9T stimulus package line-by-line and details biomanufacturing unit economics and tank capacity required for future pandemic readiness. | |
| National Debt Risks, Inflation, and Capital vs. Labor Class Divide | 8 | 2 | 4 | 4 | Sacks warns of national debt and inflation wiping out middle-class savings, prompting Chamath to argue that technology has exacerbated wealth concentration into a tiny owner class. | |
| Accredited Investor Reform and Equity Participation Debates | 7 | 2 | 5 | 5 | Jason advocates for mandatory equity participation or birth-given accounts, while Sacks and Friedberg argue that market incentives and education naturally handle equity distribution. | |
| Gavin Newsom Recall Petition Progress and Timeline | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | Friedberg outlines precise mathematical metrics for the Newsom recall petition including signature gathering rate, verification percentages, and financial costs per signature. | |
| Core Motivations Behind the Push to Recall Governor Newsom | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 | Jason criticizes California's 37% vaccine deployment rate compared to Florida and Texas, while Chamath lists state policy failures across education, infrastructure, and business environment. | |
| Critique of California Lockdowns Versus Open State Policies | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 | Sacks contrasts Florida's open policies with California's strict measures, while Chamath and Friedberg highlight the financial damage caused to restaurant owners by sudden policy shifts. | |
| The French Laundry Controversy and High-End Dining Satire | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | Chamath humorously ridicules the French Laundry controversy, while Friedberg offers public health context on multi-generational household transmission in California. | |
| Cancellation of the Week: Will Wilkinson and Anti-Cancel Culture | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | Sacks condemns right-wing cancel culture mobbing against liberal writer Will Wilkinson, arguing that retaliatory cancellation undermines broader free expression principles. |
Statements from this episode (43)
Friedberg: Biden should validate Republican policies to truly unite America
“It would have been nice to see Biden not just say let's unite, but actually step over the line and declare some of the policies and points of view of the other side as being valid and engaging more directly on those points versus saying we'll all work together…”
Sacks: Adam Schiff introduced a bill creating a domestic Patriot Act
“Now we have in Congress a bill put forward by Adam Schiff that basically would create a domestic Patriot Act to create giant new surveillance powers for the state to go after people they deem to be traitors and seditionists and domestic terrorists.”
David Sacks predicts government retaliation against political dissent will escalate conflict
“And this idea that we're fighting a war against fellow Americans based on basically political dissent, that's not going to create reconciliation. That's going to lead to the next step in this Horrible tit for tat game.”
Chamath cites Rasmussen poll showing 45% disapproval rating for Biden
“There was a Rasmussen poll that came out today. Today's Friday, January, 22nd. So two days after the inauguration and Biden's disapproval rating is 45%.”
Chamath: Biological and domestic Patriot Acts are impending
“Between the pandemic and now what happened in the capital, a biological Patriot Act, a domestic Patriot Act, these are all in the offing.”
Chamath: Passing broad sweeping surveillance powers over Americans is 'fucking nuts'
“But the idea of passing broad sweeping surveillance powers over every American citizen is fucking nuts.”
Chamath: Real chance Senate convicts Donald Trump in impeachment trial
“And I think there's a real chance now that that this impeachment goes through and he gets convicted.”
Friedberg: Trump forming third party will push Democrats further left
“If Trump does actually, if they do actually kick Trump out of the party, and he does set up a fringe party, you will likely see the Democrats move further left, creating a much more kind of conflicting story for some of the centrists than what they're telling …”
Sacks: A Trump third party causes Republicans to lose every election
“Yeah, I mean, the Republicans would basically lose every election from now until Trump is no longer, you know, a force in American politics.”
Sacks: Unlikely enough Republicans vote to convict Trump and fracture party
“I'm surprised, I, I'd be surprised at the end of the day if enough Republicans went along with this to fracture the party.”
Chamath: Miami under Mayor Suarez achieved high GDP growth and fiscal surpluses
“The GDP growth is like Chinese GDP growth, 10%, eight percent, six and a half percent. He's running fiscal surpluses. You know, crime is down, down, down.”
Sacks: Trump created a bipartisan consensus realigning US views on China
“He created a total realignment on our views around China. I think it's now a bipartisan consensus that, you know, we should not keep feeding China and making, you know, keep feeding that the Chinese tiger and turning into a dragon.”
Jason: Facebook funds its Oversight Board with $120M–$130M over six years
“They are funded by Facebook with 120 or one hundred thirty million dollars over the next six years. So they're getting like twenty million dollars a year to run this.”
Chamath: Facebook's Oversight Board is a fig leaf for Big Tech
“I don't think it should be people like this making any decision like this. And in many ways, it's a fig leaf for these companies to pretend they're doing the right thing while they're really shirking the real responsibility.”
Friedberg: Google used open-source Android to secure search dominance
“Google made Android open source. And by making the Android operating system open source, They were able to have their own forked versions that they were able to install on phones with partners like HTC and Samsung and others that they could then have their sea…”
Sacks: Deplatforming by Facebook and Twitter strips citizens of speech rights
“The town square is now owned by Facebook and Twitter. The town square got privatized and our speech rights are now in the hands of Mark Zuckerberg and Jack Dorsey as a practical matter. I mean, you do not have speech rights in the modern world if you get depla…”
Chamath: Regulation will turn big tech into quasi-nonprofits
“The level of regulation at a government by government level is going to be so onerous as to make these companies quasi nonprofits that work on behalf of countries.”
Friedberg: Big tech will eventually be regulated like utilities
“They're getting they're going to get regulated like utilities at some point”
Sacks: TikTok concerns will be swept under the rug with no restrictions
“I think the sad reality is that the whole TikTok thing is going to get swept under the rug. I think there'll be no restrictions on TikTok.”
Chamath: Every big tech firm has foreign spies inside
“It is inconceivable. That inside of big tech at every single company that you define big tech is not at least one spy from Russia, China, India, Israel, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia.”
Friedberg: Corporate software security is inadequate to protect US intellectual property
“And I don't think that we fully appreciate, like, how much of America's IP is stored in software, and data, and how accessible that is to employees inside of these organizations, and that the security is not adequate to protect that data and that IP.”
Chamath: Chinese companies obtaining US data effectively gives it to China's government
“If any company gets ahold of US user data or otherwise, it's effectively the Chinese government getting ahold of that data.”
Sacks: FBI opens a new China-related counterintelligence case every 10 hours
“He said that the FBI is opening a new China-related counterintelligence case every 10 hours.”
Friedberg: US M1 money supply grew 75% in one year
“At this point, the M-one money supply, which I sent the link out ahead of this for Nick to share, has gone up by 75% in just the past year.”
Friedberg: Stimulus plan spends $150 per vaccinated person
“There's a hundred sixty billion for COVID fighting, some of which, you know, I throw up on twenty billion dollars for vaccination, which equates to about a 150 dollars per person they expect to vaccinate, which is an extraordinarily high cost if you actually t…”
Chamath: Tech expanded inequality by creating a tiny owner class and massive labor class
“The biggest problem that technology did was it drove a wedge and it created an extremely small owner class and an extremely massive labor class.”
Friedberg: Low capital needs in software yield higher returns for capital over labor
“It's very little capital to build a highly valuable software business. It required a lot of capital to build oil infrastructure and railroad infrastructure and factories. And so to your point, you get extraordinarily different outsized returns today than you d…”
Chamath: U.S. will reemerge in 10-20 years driven by tech innovation
“I think in the next 10, I think in the next 10 and 20 years, the United States is going to fucking reemerge like a phoenix. And the reason is going to be because of innovation around climate change and agriculture and biotechnology and technology. These four a…”
Friedberg: Gavin Newsom recall petition signatures cost $3 to $6 each
“The cost for marketing and attracting people to get these signatures is coming in at like three to six bucks a signature.”
Friedberg: Gavin Newsom recall organizers will hit signature target by March 17
“Even if the verification rate drops to 75 or 65%, you're still on track at this rate To hit the recall target by March 17th, which is the deadline. And so it appears highly likely they're going to get there.”
Sacks: Gavin Newsom recall election will likely take place in July
“I think they'll get there and then they're and then the recall election would take place. About four to five months after after that, there's a couple of months where it moves through the finance committee, the recall election has to be budgeted, and then News…”
Calacanis: California trails Texas, New York, and Florida in vaccine deployment rate
“We've only deployed 37% of our doses in California. And that makes us, you know, of the major states that are putting out a lot of these vaccines one of the worst performers second. Texas and Florida and New York are the other large states, and they're at 56, …”
Chamath: California ranks worst in taxes, schools, infrastructure, and veteran homelessness
“We're the most heavily taxed. Number two, we are, we have some of the worst infrastructure in the country. We have some of the lowest and poorest performing schools in the country. We have the highest homeless rates for veterans in the country.”
Chamath: Losing tech and climate jobs will trigger multi-generational decay for California
“If these climate jobs and these technology jobs and these biotechnology jobs pivot to more accepting and progressive local and state managements like Austin, Texas and Miami, Florida, we lose these things forever. This is a multi-generational decay that we're …”
Sacks: California has higher COVID deaths per capita than Florida
“We now have certainly more cases. We have more deaths and we have more deaths per capita than Florida, despite the fact that Florida has no lockdowns and a much older population.”
Friedberg: SF restaurant owners spent $30k on outdoor seating before shutdowns
“Tons of restaurant bar owners in San Francisco spent On average, 30,000 dollars building outdoor seating for their facility only to have it all shut down three and a half weeks later.”
Friedberg: The French Laundry received a forgiven $2.6M PPP loan
“French Laundry, by the way, got a- They got a 2.6 million dollar PPP loan that got forgiven.”
Sacks: Non-lockdown states like Florida performed no worse than locked-down states
“We've seen that states that did not do lockdowns like Florida and Texas, frankly, have been no worse off than those that have done very severe lockdowns.”
Friedberg: Most California COVID-19 spread occurred in multi-generational homes, not businesses
“I think most of the spread is not happening at businesses. It's happening in homes. And in California, we have a particularly difficult problem because of multi-generational family homes, especially in the Latino communities that have been hardest hit by COVID…”
Chamath: Gavin Newsom and Donald Trump share an intellectual inability to adapt
“And like, look, we saw the intellectual incapability of Trump. Because we all said this guy could not adapt. Okay. And so we are now seeing the intellectual incapability of Gavin Newsom. And I just think they're part of the same lot. They're just kind of, you …”
Sacks: Retaliatory cancel culture legitimizes economic cancellation of political opponents
“You're, you might win this particular battle, but you're losing the war because you're now buying into the premise of cancel culture. You're now buying into this idea that we need to economically cancel people who disagree with us, and I really reject that.”
Chamath outlines his California gubernatorial platform if Newsom is recalled
“If Newsom is recalled, I would like to put my name on the ballot, and my commitments are quite simple. I just want to, I'm going to cut the taxes to zero, and I'm going to basically create an incredibly pro-climate change Jobs and pro tech jobs and pro biotech…”