Dec 29, 2021 · 1h 22m · allin
E61: 2022 Predictions! Business, politics, science, tech, crypto, & more
Chamath Palihapitiya · 21m spoken Jason Calacanis · 18m spoken David Friedberg · 18m spoken David Sacks · 13m spoken Jan Crawford · 1m spoken
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In this 2022 predictions episode of the All-In Podcast, hosts Jason Calacanis, David Sacks, Chamath Palihapitiya, and David Friedberg analyze major upcoming trends across politics, business, asset markets, technology, and pandemic policy reforms.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 97.4% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 6.0 Guest teaching 3.1 Guest disagreement 4.3 The hosts pushing back 3.7
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 10:31 Jason forcefully rejects Chamath's assessment of Xi Jinping
Jason directly challenges Chamath's premise that Xi Jinping is ascendant, shouting about real estate debt collapse, tech crackdowns, and civil unrest risks in China.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 46:35 Jason pushes back against CDC corporate conspiracy claimsJason refuses to accept Sacks and Chamath's narrative that CDC policy changes were driven by corporate interests, insisting the change was logical given Omicron's reduced severity.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 39:35 Friedberg breaks down Chinese nuclear infrastructure efficiency vs US spendingFriedberg educates the rest of the podcast on Chinese energy policy, contrasting China building 150 nuclear reactors for $450B with the US spending $30B on just two plants.
The host holds their own ▶ 27:09 Chamath outlines the financial mechanics for shorting payment legacy railsChamath demonstrates deep market knowledge by detailing payment processing fees and citing Amazon's UK move to demonstrate the vulnerability of Visa and MasterCard.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All-In Podcast Opening Title Sequence | 5 | 3 | 6 | 6 | The hosts discuss geopolitical and political predictions for 2022, including Ron DeSantis, Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping. Jason aggressively challenges Chamath's thesis on Xi Jinping's dominance by citing China's real estate debt crisis and potential civil unrest. | |
| 2022 Predictions: Biggest Political Loser | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | Sacks outlines his prediction for Nancy Pelosi's political downfall following forced votes on Build Back Better. The co-hosts discuss the progressive left and strategies for political triangulation. | |
| 2022 Predictions: Biggest Business Winner | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | The panel shares predictions for corporate winners, touching on Stripe's potential mega-IPO, small business enablement, and domestic migration away from high-tax states. Sacks cites effective tax rate changes following the SALT deduction limit. | |
| 2022 Predictions: Biggest Business Loser | 7 | 3 | 5 | 4 | Chamath takes the counter-position against traditional credit card rails, predicting a decline for Visa and MasterCard against Web3 payment innovations. He cites Amazon's decision to drop Visa in the UK as a key indicator. | |
| Chamath's Contrarian Prediction: AOC Challenges Chuck Schumer | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | Chamath presents a contrarian prediction that AOC will primary Chuck Schumer and lose, while Sacks argues Democrats will be forced to revive Bill Clinton's political playbook. | |
| Friedberg's Contrarian Predictions: Global Conflict, Climate, and Catastrophe | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Friedberg delivers contrarian predictions regarding rising global conflict and China's emergence as a climate leader. He highlights stark differences in nuclear power plant construction costs between China and the US. | |
| Jason's Contrarian Prediction: The Soaring of American Exceptionalism | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | Jason predicts a surge in American exceptionalism led by younger generations, while Sacks claims mainstream media outlets will undergo a dramatic reversal on COVID policy due to upcoming midterms. | |
| Debate on CDC Policy Changes, Omicron, and Mainstream Media Power | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6 | The panel debates the CDC's updated isolation guidelines, with Chamath arguing the change was driven by corporate labor needs. Jason pushes back, arguing that policy adjustments reflect the lower severity of Omicron. | |
| CBS News Clip: Jan Crawford Highlights COVID Policy Impact on Children | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | The segment plays a CBS News clip featuring Jan Crawford reporting on adolescent mental health struggles and suicide attempt statistics during COVID lockdowns. The hosts discuss why mainstream media ignored child welfare issues during school closures. | |
| Rebuilding Education, Teachers Union Accountability, and School Choice | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | Sacks highlights an upcoming California ballot initiative proposing a $13,000 per-pupil school choice voucher. The group pledges financial support from summit profits toward promoting school choice. | |
| 2022 Predictions: Best Performing Asset | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | The hosts quickly pitch top asset choices for 2022, ranging from battery metals (Chamath) to early-stage venture capital (Sacks, Jason) and energy commodities/defense stocks (Friedberg). | |
| 2022 Predictions: Most Anticipated Trend | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | Friedberg gives a detailed overview of Yamanaka factor partial cell reprogramming and the surge of venture capital entering anti-aging biotech. Chamath anticipates peer-to-peer mobile payments taking off in Africa. | |
| 2022 Predictions: Most Anticipated Media & Launch of All-In Media | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | Chamath announces plans to expand the brand into 'All-In Media' (AIM). The hosts examine how avoiding ad sponsorship preserves editorial freedom compared to traditional media business models. | |
| Banter on Simulated Biology Labs and Virtual Mining | 6 | 4 | 6 | 6 | Friedberg responds to listener pushback over his previous comments on animal agriculture. Chamath forcefully rejects the comparison between human and animal suffering, defending meat consumption from an evolutionary standpoint. |
Statements from this episode (40)
David Sacks predicts Ron DeSantis will become the 2024 GOP frontrunner
“My biggest political winner for twenty-twenty-two, I predict my man Ron DeSantis will be the big winner. He's up for re-election in Florida. He won in 2018 with less than one percent of the vote. It was a real nail biter. This time I think he's going to cruise…”
David Friedberg predicts Vladimir Putin will strengthen his geopolitical position against NATO
“And I think Putin will become a stronger player on the global stage, particularly as it relates to his relationship with NATO. Over the next year and he's been a little bit quiet the last few years. He was kind of, I'd say, suppressed with sanctions and all th…”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts Xi Jinping will be 2022's biggest global political winner
“I, my worldwide biggest political winner for 20, 20, 22 is Xi Jinping. I think this guy is he's firing on all cylinders and he is basically ascendant.”
Jason Calacanis predicts Joe Biden loses midterms and Donald Trump bows out
“I think Biden is going to lose the midterms. And I think Trump is going to get destroyed with this January six thing and bow out and not run again.”
David Sacks predicts a Republican wave forces Nancy Pelosi to retire
“My pick for biggest political loser next year is Nancy Pelosi. I, there's a red wave coming. The Democrats for sure are going to lose the house that is baked into the cake. And I predict she will announce for retirement shortly after that.”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts the progressive left will pay a heavy political price
“My pick is the progressive left as a class. Because I think these guys are being exposed basically for just being laughing stocks. They're be quickly becoming policy jokes inside of Washington and in every city state that they run. They just can't seem to put …”
Friedberg: Populism will swell in 2022, driving alt-right and progressive left
“I think the voice of populism is only going to swell over the next year. And that that's going to be the predominant force that's going to drive both the alt-right and the progressive left.”
Chamath: Small businesses will outperform mega-corporations starting in 2022
“Small businesses. I think what we are starting to see is that these monolithic monopolistic mega corps aren't everything that they're cracked up to be. And so there's going to be a certain amount of lock in that we will tolerate. There's going to be a lot of t…”
David Friedberg predicts Stripe will execute the largest tech IPO in history
“And so Stripe's IPO could be the biggest tech IPO ever. I think they've been talking about doing a direct listing. By the way, I don't know the guys. I don't know the investors. I don't know the company. I'm not an investor. So I don't have any information wha…”
Calacanis: Disney will be the top corporate winner of 2022
“I had two Disney was my biggest corporate winner for twenty-twenty-two. Disney Plus crushing it. Parks raised prices. People want to go to the parks. Spider-Man just had, I think, the number two or number three all-time opening in a pandemic, which is crazy. T…”
David Friedberg predicts 90% of crypto projects will collapse in 2022
“I'd say 90% of them are probably going to start to blow up next year.”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts Visa and MasterCard will be 2022's biggest business losers
“My biggest business loser for 20, 22 is Visa and MasterCard and traditional payment rails and the entire ecosystem around it.”
David Sacks predicts ending Fed liquidity will crash crypto and growth stocks
“If liquidity is reduced next year, I think that could Reverberate through a bunch of markets, including, you know, everything from sports cards, you know, collectibles, which have gone through the roof, to art, to crypto, to, you know, maybe some gross stocks,…”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts AOC will primary Chuck Schumer in 2022 and lose
“I think that all of this pressure in, on the progressive left will manifest in the chosen one, AOC, deciding to step up and run against Schumer in the primary in June of twenty-twenty-two, and she will lose.”
Sacks: Democratic Party will embrace Bill Clinton's centrist formula by end of 2022
“I predict that there will be a strange new respect for Bill Clinton in the Democratic Party by the end of next year. Why? Because after the red wave, there'll be a recognition that they need to move towards the center, they need to triangulate, and Clinton was…”
David Sacks predicts Hispanic and Asian American voters flip Republican in 2022
“It's already the case in polling that Hispanics and Asian Americans now are swing voters, and I think you're gonna see in November, 20, 22, that they go for Republicans in big numbers, and so the idea that the Democratic Party can just coast to election based …”
David Friedberg accurately predicts major global conflicts and proxy wars in 2022
“I think we'll see the start of great global conflict. We often rationalize the series of events that, that catalyze conflict after the fact, rather than Recognizing that there was emotional conditioning that allowed it to arise in the first place. I think we'r…”
Friedberg predicts China will solidify position as climate leader in 2022
“China may solidify its position next year. And this is going to sound a little crazy as a leader in climate change mitigation. Whereas it's historically been considered kind of the primary foe against climate change.”
Calacanis: The US economy will boom as baby boomers pass down wealth
“And then all these boomers are retiring as Chamath has pointed out over and over again, and they're going to pass down their wealth, which then creates a perfect storm. Of a ton of capital, a ton of energy, lots of new ideas, a different perspective, and the e…”
David Sacks predicts mainstream media will completely reverse its COVID-19 coverage
“I think the media is going to, the media is going to pull a total one 80 on COVID. Okay, so after pumping out COVID fear porn for two years, they're going to change their tune next year.”
Sacks asserts more U.S. COVID deaths occurred under Biden than Trump
“More Americans have already died from COVID under Joe Biden than Donald Trump.”
Chamath Palihapitiya claims the CDC is controlled by big business interests
“The CDC ultimately really is just in the hands of big business.”
Jan Crawford notes healthy teenagers face minimal risk of COVID-19 death
“A healthy teenager has a one in a million chance of getting and dying from COVID, which is way lower than, you know, dying in a car wreck on a road trip.”
Jan Crawford: Suicide attempts among girls increased 51% in 2021
“The risk of suicide, girl, suicide attempts among girls now up 51% this year.”
Chamath claims All-In Podcast reaches over 1M weekly listeners
“There's more than a million people a week that listen to this.”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts the All-In Podcast will surpass CNBC and CNN viewership
“We're probably going to pass, you know, most CNBC shows and some CNN shows by the end of next year.”
David Sacks predicts a $13,000 California school choice voucher ballot initiative
“There's going to be a ballot initiative that says that any Parent who wants to send their kid to an accredited school can get a voucher for 13,000 dollars from the state.”
Calacanis pledges All-In Summit profits to California school choice campaign
“All in Summit profits will put towards this.”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts battery metals will be the best-performing 2022 asset class
“This will be battery metals lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, put them in a basket.”
Friedberg: Energy commodities and stocks will perform well amid rising conflict
“So in a world of increased global conflict, I think assets that do really well are energy commodities and energy stocks.”
David Friedberg reveals large personal investments in energy and defense stocks
“I recently made a big bet on energy stocks, defense stocks, and it used to be a gold.”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts peer-to-peer payment disruption will originate in Africa
“Peer-to-peer payments the destruction of traditional rails it will come out of Africa.”
Sacks: Republican Party will be surprisingly united in 2022
“I actually think the Republican Party is going to be surprisingly united in twenty-twenty-two.”
David Friedberg predicts a massive biotech gold rush into cellular reprogramming
“My biggest anticipated trend for 2022 is gonna be a gold rush in biotech into what I think will become the cover story on magazines throughout the year that humans have discovered the fountain of youth.”
Jason Calacanis predicts major reforms to US accredited investor and crypto laws
“Alright, and I had most anticipated trend of 2022 being the accredited investor laws are going to change and evolve and it might just be you take a test and you're now accredited. It doesn't matter if you won the lottery or you make 200,000 a year and a legal …”
Chamath: All-In Media will expand into written content by end of 2022
“So I think that we, by the end of 20, 22 will have published content, written content, not necessarily by us, but other forms of media interaction that get the truth out to a large swath of humanity.”
David Friedberg predicts cell-based sushi will be available to consumers by 2025
“You'll have a piece of sushi in three years.”