Apr 1, 2022 · 1h 39m · allin
E74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
Chamath Palihapitiya · 31m spoken Jason Calacanis · 20m spoken David Sacks · 18m spoken David Friedberg · 18m spoken
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In this episode of the All-In Podcast, the co-hosts analyze macroeconomic recession signals, U.S. foreign policy blunders, demographic labor shortages, and new SEC regulatory proposals. They also debate high-skilled immigration reform, Meta's public relations campaign against TikTok, and the economic impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.9% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 6.2 Guest teaching 3.3 Guest disagreement 3.0 The hosts pushing back 2.8
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 1:25:08 Sacks calls out Jason on Biden's regime change gaffe
Sacks forcefully confronts Jason for defending Biden's strategy, claiming Biden accidentally admitted to the underlying foreign policy goal of regime change.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 1:24:30 Jason concedes his previous defense of Biden was wrongJason pushes back on his own previous stance and accepts Sacks's point after Biden made his off-script remark about Putin.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 1:21:45 Friedberg breaks down agricultural unit economicsFriedberg educates the panel on specific input costs, rent margins, and fertilizer math in Illinois to prove why farmers will under-plant.
The host holds their own ▶ 6:45 Chamath corrects yield curve panic with Fed dataChamath demonstrates market expertise by contrasting standard 2s/10s yield curve inversion with the Fed's preferred forward spread metric.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Show Banter and April Fool's Fundraiser Joke | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | Lighthearted pre-show banter featuring jokes about Sacks's trip to DC and an April Fool's fundraiser. Low technical depth and minimal disagreement. | |
| Critique of U.S. Foreign Policy and The Blob | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Sacks articulates a non-interventionist foreign policy critique, describing the foreign policy establishment as 'the blob'. The group generally agrees with his assessment. | |
| Inverted Yield Curve and Market Outlook Analysis | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Chamath delivers an in-depth breakdown of the 2-year vs 10-year yield curve inversion versus the Fed's 3-month to 18-month forward spread. He explains market divergence across corporate fundamentals. | |
| Recession Risks, Stagflation, and Labor Market Paradox | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Sacks and Friedberg outline stagflation dynamics and the limited fiscal/monetary levers remaining after pandemic stimulus. The dialogue is collaborative and analytical. | |
| U.S. Demographic Collapse and Immigration Policy | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Chamath cites demographic birth rate declines and COVID mortality stats to explain structural labor shortages, advocating for immigration as the primary remedy. | |
| Structural Inflation, Tech Deflation, and Fiscal Overreach | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Friedberg and Chamath discuss inflationary price stickiness versus tech-driven deflation, highlighting California energy policy and housing NIMBYism as structural hurdles. | |
| Critique of Proposed Tax on Unrealized Asset Gains | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | Sacks critiques Biden's proposed tax on unrealized gains, while Jason and Sacks debate how immigration framing gets distorted between merit-based systems and border political battles. | |
| Society's Trade-Off Between Progress and Equity | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | Friedberg delivers a structured conceptual argument on the tension between societal progress and wealth distribution equity using Amazon as a case study. | |
| High-Skilled Immigration and Demographics | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Sacks and Chamath argue for reframing high-skilled immigration as 'talent acquisition' to preserve global economic competitiveness amidst demographic contraction. | |
| Political Realignment and Working-Class Voter Shifts | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 | Sacks draws on political commentary to explain working-class voter realignments away from the Democratic party, analyzing electoral trends and cultural dynamics. | |
| SEC SPAC Regulations and Public Market Access | 8 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Chamath and Friedberg evaluate proposed SEC regulations on SPACs and forward-looking financial disclosures, emphasizing sponsor skin in the game. | |
| Economic Externalities and SEC Climate Disclosures | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Friedberg explains economic externalities like sugar and carbon, proposing disclosure as a first step toward internalizing societal costs. | |
| Flaws in Carbon Markets and Free-Market Climate Tech | 7 | 4 | 5 | 4 | Chamath and Friedberg vigorously criticize current carbon offset markets as fraudulent and unmeasurable, favoring raw market innovation over bureaucratic auditing. | |
| Debating Accredited Investor Regulations and Financial Freedom | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | Chamath and Jason challenge accredited investor restrictions by contrasting them with permissive rules on firearms, lottery tickets, and legal cannabis. | |
| Lighthearted Banter on Environmental Views and Outdoor Activities | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | Playful banter teasing Sacks about avoiding the outdoors and shooting ranges, transitioning into a discussion on Meta's PR campaign against TikTok. | |
| Chamath's TikTok Experience: Sandwich Content and Vegan Food Banter | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | Humorous discussion about Chamath's obsession with TikTok sandwich videos and Friedberg's tempeh sandwich preferences. | |
| Formal Debate on Banning TikTok, National Security, and Code Audits | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | The group debates whether TikTok should be banned in the US, exploring reciprocity with China, national security risks, and software code auditing. | |
| Global Wheat Supply Disruption, Fertilizer Inflation, and Famine Risks | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 | Friedberg presents detailed ag economic data from Gary Schnitke regarding fertilizer cost inflation, unit economics for Illinois corn, and projected global famine risks. | |
| Analyzing Biden's 'Regime Change' Gaffe and Geopolitical Strategy | 8 | 4 | 6 | 5 | Sacks takes a victory lap after Biden's 'cannot remain in power' remark, arguing it exposed a Kinsley gaffe regarding US foreign policy goals. Jason admits the gaffe undermined his previous defense of Biden. | |
| Russian Political Resilience, Approval Ratings, and Diplomatic Failures | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Sacks discusses Levada Center polling showing high Russian domestic approval for Putin, followed by wrap-up banter about their upcoming live summit. |
Statements from this episode (43)
Sacks claims the United States has been in seven wars recently
“The United States has been in seven wars.”
Sacks: Obama de-escalated military in Syria against his staff's objections
“Obama pulled the plug and he de-escalated in Syria over the objections of his staff.”
Chamath: Restoration Hardware sells overpriced crappy furniture in a stalled housing market
“Restoration hardware sells overpriced crappy furniture into a housing market that's basically shut down because refi rates are at five percent.”
Sacks predicts the US economy will face a recession or near-recession
“We're definitely going into a slowdown. And whether it becomes a recession to be determined, I think there's a very good chance because We already were headed for a slowdown because of interest rate increases because of inflation. And now on top of it, we've g…”
Sacks warns the US could face persistent stagflation
“So it seems to me that we don't have a lot of tools here and we could end up with something like a stack, the Stagflation where we continue to see inflation with a slowing economy.”
Calacanis notes over 10 million US job openings during economic uncertainty
“And now we're sitting here with more jobs than we can fill still over ten million jobs available and people are still resigning from jobs.”
Chamath Palihapitiya: U.S. net births fell below 300,000 in 2021
“It was less than 300,000 net births in the entire country.”
Chamath: Birth rates fall as living standards and gender equality rise
“As a standard of living goes up and as the equality between men and women go up, birth rates go down without commenting on the dynamics of that. That's just, that is just true.”
Chamath: Immigration is the only short-term solution for U.S. labor shortages
“You're not going to get, you know, families to all of a sudden have kids, you know, that that's a 18 year problem. If you started that problem today to get them into the workforce or 25 year problem. So immigration is really the only solution.”
Calacanis: U.S. labor force participation fell from ~68% to 62%
“Labor participation, which when we were coming up, 67, 68% of people in the country were work choosing to work. And now we're down in the 60% of maybe ticking up to, yeah, 62%, it looks like on that Fred website.”
Friedberg: Consumable and durable goods prices rarely drop after inflating
“And you raise your prices. You're not often going back and dropping your prices again. And you know, you have to have a catch up effect. For income and savings to make up for the increment in pricing. And that's really, you know, a key driver right now that th…”
Chamath: California electricity prices are three times the national average
“Like, for example, you take a state like California, you know, it's the most populous state in the country, it's the richest state in the country, but it has an electricity prices that are three times higher than the national average.”
Sacks: Tech deflation will not prevent a US economic downturn
“It's strong there that technology does cause deflation. It's deflationary. But this is not going to help us get out of what's coming over the next year or two.”
Sacks: US government printed and spent over $10 trillion on COVID response
“Look, the bottom line is that we had a massive government overreaction to COVID in which we printed and spent way too much money, something like 10 trillion plus.”
Sacks: Yield curve inversion signals 98% chance of recession within two years
“Historically, it's meant when the yield curve inverts, there's been a better than two-thirds chance of recession at some point in the next year, and greater than 98% chance of recession at some point in the next two years.”
Sacks: The $2 trillion American Rescue Plan caused severe inflation
“I mean, one year ago, they did that whole two trillion dollar American rescue plan. They were warned. By people like Stanley Druckenmiller, that retail was back, the consumer was back, and yet they still printed two trillion. That caused a huge amount of infla…”
Sacks: A deal could have been negotiated to prevent the war in Ukraine
“I strongly believe we could have cut a deal on Ukraine a year ago to diffuse this whole situation before it turned into a war.”
Calacanis: Shutting borders was Trump's worst policy approach
“This was Trump's worst. Yeah, worst approach. He was best approach, clearly not starting wars, worst approach, shutting the borders down for some populous reason when we actually need people in the country.”
Friedberg: Prioritizing equity over progress will cause decades of ripple effects
“And here we are, we want to give up progress, and we want to get equity. And it's going to cause a real ripple effect that's going to last for decades.”
Sacks: 40% of Silicon Valley startups have an immigrant co-founder
“Something like 40% of startups have an immigrant co-founder.”
Chamath: LA County will have zero net births before end of century
“Before the turn of the century, the County of Los Angeles will have zero net births.”
Sacks: Democrats will get shellacked in November 2022 midterms
“That is why the Democrats are going to get shellacked in November.”
Sacks: College-educated voters account for about 37% of US electorate
“You gotta remember that professionals, meaning college educated voters, are only about a third of the electorate. I think about 37%. And then the other 63% are working class.”
Sacks: Democrats will keep losing until shifting away from progressive stance
“Where I think this thing is headed is that the working class voters of this country don't like this radical progressive shift in the Democratic Party, and the Democratic Party's gonna keep losing until they're willing to make changes.”
Chamath: SPAC market will consolidate around 6 or 7 players
“SPACs will consolidate around six or seven players and, you know, will do most of the business.”
Chamath says he invested at least $100M in every sponsored SPAC
“I've invested a minimum of a hundred million dollars in every single deal I've done. As a SPAC sponsor.”
Friedberg: Managing externalities requires quantifying downstream costs and funding repair
“The first step is identifying and quantifying the external costs of the product or service that you're providing, and deciding whether or not to tax the consumer of that product, whether or not to tax the seller of that product, and ultimately how to transitio…”
Friedberg: Carbon markets and sequestration mechanisms are absolute BS
“These carbon markets are absolute BS. Carbon sequestration mechanisms are absolute BS. I mean, none of this stuff is real right now.”
Chamath: Climate disclosure rules will drive consulting shadow industry, not cut emissions
“What I think it will do instead of actually causing more conformity and have people emitting less carbon, it'll create a shadow industry of measurement and consulting around this industry while people debate materiality when they get caught.”
Chamath: 18-year-olds can buy AR-15s but cannot invest in startups like GoPuff
“You can allow an 18 year old person to buy an AR, give me the name of the gun, AR 15. But they're not allowed to invest in GoPuff.”
Sacks: Concerns over Facebook should be ten times greater for TikTok
“Whatever problems people have with Facebook, they should have them like, 10 x with TikTok.”
Calacanis: TikTok is compelling but leaves users feeling regretful
“It's such a compelling product. You feel so terrible using it. So you love it at something and then you feel very vapid for having used it and you have regret.”
Calacanis: Chinese operators use TikTok to track users and program children
“And then the Chinese are running it, and they're programming our children and have all their data and locations.”
Friedberg: US government should not restrict consumer products or services
“I don't think that we should be restricting the products and services that people choose to use.”
Calacanis: Twitter had two employees working for Saudi Arabia
“Oh, they had Twitter had it. They had two people from the kingdom working there.”
Chamath: At least 5 to 10 big tech employees work for foreign governments
“Like in the tens of thousands of employees that work in big tech, there's probably at least five or 10 of these people that work on behalf of foreign government.”
Friedberg: Ukraine could see up to an 80% decline in planted acres
“There is an expectation that we could see up to an 80% decline in planted acres in the Ukraine”
Friedberg: Reduced global crop production will lead to famine in a year
“That means there's going to be less production over the next year. That means famine hits us in a year.”
Sacks predicts Russia-Ukraine war will end in Ukrainian neutrality and NATO exclusion
“Ukraine's gonna be neutral, they can't be part of NATO, they get some security guarantees from the West in exchange for that.”
Sacks predicts Donetsk and Luhansk will gain independence in war endgame
“I think it's going to result in some form of independence for these disputed territories of Donetsk and Luhansk, right?”
Sacks: Putin's approval in Russia rose to 83% after Ukraine invasion
“Putin's approval rating in Russia is 83%. So his approval ratings have gone up. We thought not, you could say it's fake or whatever, but apparently this is a reasonably decent polling operation. This is a poll by Lovato Center, an independent pollster in Mosco…”
Sacks: Economic impact of Ukraine conflict will push US into recession
“And this is going to hurt us. This, I mean, look, this is one of those things that the administration thinks doesn't affect them, but you know what, when our economy goes into recession, because this is a straw that breaks the camel's back, it, voters are goin…”