Jul 8, 2022 · 1h 23m · allin
E86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
Chamath Palihapitiya · 25m spoken Jason Calacanis · 19m spoken David Sacks · 16m spoken David Friedberg · 14m spoken
0:00 / 0:00
▶ Watch on YouTube →
gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In Episode 86 of the All-In Podcast, the co-hosts analyze pressing macroeconomic headwinds—including inflation, labor dislocation, commercial real estate defaults, and housing declines—before examining global energy crises, Dutch farmer protests, and political disconnects.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.7% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 6.9 Guest teaching 2.5 Guest disagreement 2.2 The hosts pushing back 2.5
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 58:22 Sacks attacks technocratic environmental mandates
Sacks forcefully rejects the premise of top-down 50 percent emission targets, calling the regulators authoritarian technocrats driven by class bias against farmers.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 59:08 Sacks pushes back on Friedberg's defense of regulatory interventionWhen Friedberg suggests government mandates force technology transitions, Sacks refuses the arbitrary top-down framing and demands a gradual market-based cap-and-trade solution instead.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 50:50 Friedberg explains Haber-Bosch and agricultural emissions scienceFriedberg delivers an in-depth scientific tutorial on synthetic ammonia production, explaining how volatilized nitrogen creates nitrous oxide with 300 times the warming potential of CO2 and detailing Gulf of Mexico dead zones.
The host holds their own ▶ 45:33 Chamath breaks down global oil supply sensitivitiesChamath demonstrates deep commodity market expertise by calculating global daily barrel buffers, OPEC+ capacity constraints, and price elasticity spikes under potential Russian production cuts.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Show Banter on Matching Italian Cashmere Outfits | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | Casual pre-show banter regarding matching Loro Piana cashmere outfits bought in Italy. Light comedic exchanges with no formal macroeconomic analysis or debate. | |
| Macro Outlook: Jobs, Labor Dislocation, and Supply vs. Demand Recession | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Chamath and Sacks analyze Fed minutes, distinguishing between white-collar tech slowdowns and blue-collar labor participation gaps. Chamath explains how lockdowns caused a supply-side recession that rate hikes now risk turning into a demand-side recession. | |
| San Francisco Commercial Real Estate Vacancy Crisis | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | Sacks presents detailed commercial real estate statistics for San Francisco, predicting 40 percent office vacancy by year-end. He details technical debt metrics like debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) default risks as long-term leases expire. | |
| Decline in U.S. Net International Migration and Labor Impacts | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | Sacks and Chamath clash on consumer spending signals, with Sacks pointing to plummeting consumer sentiment while Chamath emphasizes sustained summer travel demand. Friedberg highlights rising consumer credit card balances covering inflation gaps. | |
| U.S. Housing Market Outlook, Mortgage Spikes, and Job Losses | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | The panel examines rising mortgage rates and housing market slowdowns relative to 50-year historical averages. Sacks identifies job losses as the primary determinant for how severe the broader economic downturn will become. | |
| Bill Ackman's Thesis, Market Rerating, and Tech Earnings Risks | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Chamath connects Bill Ackman's thesis to equity rerating dynamics, reviewing his late-2021 call tracking insider stock sales by Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk. He warns that secondary demand destruction will severely impact tech earnings power. | |
| Turkey's Rare Earth Discovery and the DeSantis Panini Interlude | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Chamath evaluates Turkey's claimed rare earth discovery, analyzing ore concentration grades and extraction cost viability. The discussion briefly lightens as DeSantis paninis arrive in Milan. | |
| Resource Abundance, Scientific Progress, and Steven Pinker's Thesis | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Friedberg delivers a scientific perspective on earth crust geophysics and long-term resource abundance. Citing Steven Pinker, he argues human cognitive bias overemphasizes risk while ignoring empirical progress in energy and food tech. | |
| EU Green Policy Reversals, Nuclear Taxonomy, and Oil Supply Math | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Friedberg discusses the EU reclassifying nuclear and natural gas as green energy. Chamath details precise global oil supply math, showing how a 3 to 5 million barrel Russian production cut could spike crude oil prices to 180 to 380 dollars per barrel. | |
| Dutch Farmers Revolt and Protests Over Emissions Regulations | 9 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Friedberg educates the group on synthetic nitrogen fertilizer, explaining how the Haber-Bosch process works and why volatilized ammonia creates nitrous oxide that is 300 times more potent than CO2. | |
| Technocratic Overreach, Class Bias, and Political Disconnect | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Sacks argues that top-down environmental targets reflect class bias and technocratic overreach against working-class farmers. Friedberg counters that regulatory mandates drive necessary technology adoption, prompting Sacks to advocate for market-based permit systems. | |
| Public Priorities vs. Elite Agendas and ESG Hypocrisy | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Friedberg shares Monmouth polling data showing a stark gap between public inflation concerns and elite climate agendas. Chamath exposes structural accounting hypocrisy in ESG funds holding traditional oil stocks like Exxon and Conoco. | |
| Political Disconnect, Biden's Gas Station Tweet, and Bezos' Critique | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | The panel critiques President Biden's tweet directing gas station owners to lower pump prices, explaining that 90 percent of stations are independent franchises operating on slim 2 percent margins. They review Jeff Bezos' public reprimand of White House economic illiteracy. |
Statements from this episode (38)
Palihapitiya: US faces structural unemployment due to low wage offers
“We have a structural unemployment problem, as you said, two openings for every person, which means those openings aren't paying enough for people to leave the sidelines and get on the field.”
Friedberg: Fast food will become permanently more expensive
“I do think that there's been a substantial, almost permanent change in some of these sectors of the economy, not necessarily all, some will revert, but it leaves big gaps in parts of the economy, and maybe fast food restaurants are not going to be as cheap as …”
Palihapitiya: Fed rate hikes may trigger a demand-side recession
“We were kind of in a supply side recession, and now by raising rates to some crazy amount, the end of which we're still not sure about, may actually then trigger the demand destruction to have a demand side recession.”
Calacanis: Revitalizing San Francisco's SoMa district will never happen
“That's never going to happen. That's off the table.”
Sacks: San Francisco office vacancy will hit 30 million square feet
“They said that by the end of the year, they're expecting Thirty million square feet of office vacancy. In San Francisco by the end of the year.”
Sacks: New San Francisco commercial leases will sign at steep discounts
“All these new leases that get signed to the extent there are any, they're going to be at a fraction of what the old leases were because this vacancy is going to create a massively low market clearing price.”
Sacks: Banks will repossess half of downtown San Francisco office buildings
“I don't understand how in a place like downtown San Francisco, half the buildings don't end up getting owned by the banks. Well, the banks don't want to own all these buildings, so they're going to be a fire sale, but I don't know who the buyers are going to b…”
Calacanis: US net international migration has plummeted below one million
“Net international migration has just plummeted. We're well under a million folks coming into the country.”
Palihapitiya: America is no longer the shining light on the hill
“America is not the shining light on the hill it used to be.”
Sacks: Three million illegal immigrants entered the US under Biden
“Three million people have come in just under Biden and illegal migration.”
Sacks: Consumer spending behavior will pivot downward to match poor sentiment
“I think the behavior will catch up with the sentiment. I think the behavior is pivoting.”
Calacanis: US household gas spending doubled to $5,000 annually
“The average household is now spending 5000 a year on gasoline. That's almost double last year.”
Palihapitiya: Stock market equities face severe pressure without buyer support
“Equities get really under pressure. There is no scenario where there's a bid to equities.”
Calacanis: US home sales must drop to 4 million for market capitulation
“That number's got to drop down to probably four, and then we would actually have some capitulation”
Sacks: Commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop
“That's the next shoe to drop, just like the commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop.”
Palihapitiya: The US is not close to broad mass layoffs
“Honestly, I think you were right, but I think we're not even close to that. I just don't see where all of a sudden there are these writ large mass layoffs.”
Sacks is skeptical that the US economy will achieve a soft landing
“I just am skeptical. There's going to be a soft landing because of what Chamath is saying, which is, this is a multi-part problem. And until we fix the supply side, I don't think that merely reducing demand is going to get us out of this.”
Palihapitiya discloses selling Golden State Warriors stake and SoFi position
“And at that moment, I started a bunch of things in process, which we can talk about at the end, but I also sold a bunch of warriors position. I started a process at that point, and I sold a piece in December, and then I just sold the last piece this week. But …”
Calacanis: Global annual rare earth mineral consumption will double by 2030
“You guys probably know we use about a 150 thousand metric tons a year right now. That's gonna double by 2030.”
Palihapitiya: Rare earth extraction grade is the key bottleneck, not scarcity
“Rare earths are not particularly that rare. It's just the question is, you know, which of the 17 rare earth elements at what grade, meaning at what percent concentration does it exist? And then really importantly, at what cost to extract it economically?”
Friedberg: Earth holds 10 billion years of accessible underground energy reserves
“From a pure geophysics point of view, by some estimates, we have ten billion years of energy reserves below the crust of the earth that we can access in the form of nuclear reserves, geothermal power, and that's excluding, you know, some of the, you know, the …”
Calacanis: European Parliament reclassifies nuclear power and natural gas as green
“The EU Parliament flipped. And they are now saying these virtuous signaling knuckleheads, they came to the census and now they believe nuclear is green. Also green, according to the EU parliament is natural gas.”
Palihapitiya: Global oil production capability exceeds demand by one million barrels
“Today globally around the world, every single country in the world that is involved in the oil business is able to produce exactly one million more barrels per day. Than we need.”
Palihapitiya: Saudi Arabia cannot reach 12 million oil barrels daily until 2027
“Saudi Arabia says we can get to twelve million. Well, guess what? They can only start the work in 2024. They'll be done in 2027.”
Palihapitiya: Saudi Arabia maintained 11 million daily barrels for only eight weeks
“They have been at eleven million for some total of eight weeks in their entire lifetime.”
Calacanis: China is building 30 overseas nuclear reactors
“Their nuclear strategy with the Belt and Road Initiative is to put 30 nuclear reactors in countries outside of China that they're trying to have influence in, and they're building 30 nukes right now. They got a 150 planned.”
Calacanis: Dutch emissions targets will force farmers to reduce livestock
“They're targeting a 50% cut nationwide by 20, 30 livestock produces these emissions. So the plan will likely force Dutch farmers to cut their livestock herds or stop working altogether.”
Friedberg: Dutch government fired shots at protesting farmers
“The government started shooting at them. They got shot.”
Friedberg: Humanity uses 2% to 6% of global energy manufacturing ammonia
“Humans use roughly between two and six percent of our energy on earth every year to make ammonia.”
Friedberg: Netherlands is the third largest dairy exporter globally
“The Netherlands is the world's third largest dairy exporter. They export three billion dollars a year of milk to the rest of the world, to other countries.”
Friedberg: US Senate composition prevents agricultural nitrogen emissions regulation
“And in the US, there's just no way a law is going to pass because the US Senate is controlled primarily by rural states, which are ag heavy.”
Palihapitiya: Elites use sustainability rhetoric to justify unscientific policies
“It's the actual global elite writ large have wrapped themselves around the sustainability blanket. And they believe that that word justifies all kinds of bad unscientific innumerate policies.”
Friedberg: Governments will globally roll out cap-and-trade emissions systems
“I think that is what is going to happen around the world is that that sort of cap and trade or taxation system is going to get slowly rolled out for a lot of these externality costs in production and industry and agriculture, particularly because there are tec…”
Friedberg: Regulatory costs make new nuclear facilities cost $10 billion
“The issue with nuclear power, as you know, is the regulatory cost. So, you know, it's ten billion dollars in 30 years to get a new facility.”
Friedberg: June 2022 Monmouth poll shows climate change at 1% concern
“The Monmouth poll that was published a few days ago which is the June, 20, 22 poll, the number one concern that America, the number one thing Americans are concerned about, Nick, you could put the chart, the table in the show notes. 33% care about inflation, 2…”
Palihapitiya: Europe's top 2022 ESG fund was up 16% holding oil stocks
“The top ESG fund manager in Europe of the of 20, 22 they released their results and the guy was up like almost 16%. And he disclosed what he owns and he turns out that he owns Conoco Valero and Exxon.”