Aug 4, 2023 · 1h 29m · allin
E140: LK-99, Sclerotic establishments, Fitch downgrades US debt, Trump indicted... again
David Friedberg · 29m spoken David Sacks · 20m spoken Jason Calacanis · 17m spoken Chamath Palihapitiya · 12m spoken
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The All-In Podcast hosts evaluate the viral science behind claimed room-temperature superconductor LK-99, critique institutional sclerosis across academia and government, debate the economic impacts of Fitch's U.S. debt downgrade, and analyze the legal and political ramifications of Donald Trump's third criminal indictment.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.5% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 7.3 Guest teaching 5.5 Guest disagreement 4.8 The hosts pushing back 4.5
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 1:18:23 Trump Stockholm Syndrome Clash
Calacanis aggressively attacks Sacks and the GOP for suffering from 'Trump Stockholm Syndrome' and supporting a corrupt criminal, prompting Sacks to loudly fire back about weaponized politics.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 1:03:23 Chamath Rejects Treasury ChartChamath sharply rejects Friedberg's treasury ownership chart, calling it 'fucking worthless' for omitting the impacts of Federal Reserve quantitative easing.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 16:30 Diamagnetism vs. SuperconductivityChamath educates the room on material science principles, detailing why LK-99 is likely a diamagnet rather than a superconductor based on past research.
The host holds their own ▶ 1:15:16 Sacks Dismantles Jan 6 Legal TheorySacks leverages David Leonhardt's New York Times reporting to systematically dismantle Calacanis's 'dead to rights' assertion, proving the charges rely on novel intent standards.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Explaining LK-99 and Room-Temperature Superconductivity | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Friedberg explains the physics and global scientific race surrounding the LK-99 room-temperature superconductor pre-print paper. Calacanis asks clarifying questions about energy loss, resistance, and application scaling, while Friedberg details computer modeling of electron probability states across five independent labs. | |
| Quantum Computing, Photonic Chips, and AI Hardware Impact | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Friedberg outlines applications for AI hardware, quantum computing qubits, and crystal lattice distortions, noting that replacing specific lead atoms with copper creates electron tunnels. He also shares the background story of Lee and Kim's lab discovery and recent Korean lab experiments at 170 Kelvin. | |
| Pre-print Drama, arXiv, and the Nobel Prize Race | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | Friedberg explains the arXiv pre-print repository mechanism and details the drama between disgruntled researcher Kwon and the original authors competing for Nobel Prize eligibility. | |
| Theoretical Exploration, 1D Constraints, and Sacks' Skepticism | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | Friedberg presents 1D vs 3D superconductivity theoretical constraints, while Sacks voices fundamental skepticism by asking why anyone believes the claim when no independent lab has successfully reproduced it. | |
| Diamagnetism vs. Superconductivity & Prediction Markets | 8 | 6 | 4 | 4 | Chamath steps in with a technical breakdown distinguishing diamagnetism as a property of matter from superconductivity as a state of matter, offering his intuition that LK-99 is merely a diamagnet based on his past venture attempt buying Rochester IP. | |
| Experimental Benchmarks and Viral Bigfoot-Style Videos | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | Friedberg details three required experimental benchmarks for superconductivity proof and compares grainy streaming videos from social media to Bigfoot and UFO sightings. | |
| Cultural Optimism, VC Memes, and Elusive Breakthroughs | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | The co-hosts reflect on cultural optimism surrounding material science, share a VC Braggs meme regarding funding cycles, and Friedberg reminisces about his 1993 middle school science fair project on YBCO superconductors. | |
| Stagnation in Physical Innovation and Sclerotic Gatekeepers | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | Sacks references Peter Thiel's thesis that innovation has stalled in physical sciences compared to software, while Friedberg counters by highlighting dramatic hardware advances in gene editing, biologics, and agricultural yields. | |
| Academic Misconduct, Grant Incentives, and Vital Biosciences | 8 | 6 | 5 | 5 | Chamath and Sacks argue that establishment gatekeepers and incentive structures in university grant systems encourage misconduct and incremental research, debating Friedberg on whether the core issue is systemic incentives or corruption. | |
| Academic Leadership Chart and Institutional Sclerosis Discussion | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4 | Chamath presents a chart illustrating the advanced age of academic leadership in top U.S. research institutions, while Sacks connects this gerontocracy and sclerosis to political leadership and the early COVID-19 origins suppression in the Lancet letter. | |
| Fitch Downgrades U.S. Debt Rating Amid Spending Concerns | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | Friedberg breaks down the Fitch U.S. debt credit rating downgrade from AAA to AA+, pointing out that federal debt interest payments have now surpassed national defense spending. | |
| Federal Interest Payments Surge as Debt Spiral Intensifies | 9 | 7 | 3 | 3 | Friedberg analyzes the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee report showing an extraordinary $2 trillion debt issuance planned over two quarters, citing public opposition to entitlement cuts across political primary proposals. | |
| Debate on U.S. Debt Relative Dominance and Market Impact | 8 | 6 | 7 | 7 | Chamath forcefully dismisses the Fitch downgrade as irrelevant and calls critics 'chicken littles', insisting U.S. debt must be evaluated on a relative basis against worse foreign economies, while Sacks counters on equity discount rates and risk crowding out. | |
| U.S. Labor Market Resilience and Venture Capital Ecosystem | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | Calacanis argues for economic resilience citing 3.6% unemployment and over 9 million open jobs, clashing briefly with Sacks over anecdotal border video clips versus official immigration metrics. | |
| Foreign Ownership of U.S. Debt and All-In Summit Announcement | 8 | 6 | 7 | 7 | Friedberg presents data on declining foreign treasury holdings, which Chamath aggressively rejects as 'worthless' due to Federal Reserve quantitative easing distorting market percentages. | |
| Overview of Donald Trump's Third Criminal Indictment | 7 | 5 | 7 | 7 | Calacanis reviews Trump's third criminal indictment regarding January 6th, asserting prosecutors have him 'dead to rights', which Sacks immediately rejects while distinguishing between the documents case and election dispute charges. | |
| New York Times Analysis and Novel Legal Theories | 9 | 7 | 8 | 6 | Sacks cites New York Times analysis by David Leonhardt to argue Jack Smith is using untested, novel legal theories requiring impossible proof of intent, warning against prosecutorial overreach. | |
| Debating Political Fixation and Trump Stockholm Syndrome | 7 | 5 | 9 | 9 | Calacanis accuses the GOP and Sacks of 'Trump Stockholm Syndrome' (TSS) for defending a corrupt figure, while Sacks counters that media fixation and politicized DOJ actions are destroying political norms. | |
| Indictment Timing and Potential Election Interference Concerns | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8 | Friedberg expresses deep concern over the DOJ bringing charges right in the middle of a presidential primary cycle, while Calacanis defends the multi-year investigation timeframe. | |
| Executive Power, DOJ Independence, and Constitutional Remedies | 7 | 5 | 8 | 7 | Sacks asserts that Biden's DOJ prosecuting his main political rival is 'banana republic stuff', while Calacanis maintains the Justice Department acts independently before closing the episode. |
Statements from this episode (43)
Friedberg: Five labs published modeling papers supporting LK-99 superconductivity
“Five different labs have now published papers that show that the way that this material is supposedly produced, it should create these pathways or these energy states with the electrons that theoretically could enable superconductivity at a very high temperatu…”
Friedberg: Around 70% of generated energy is lost to heat and friction
“So, you know, I would say on the order of 70% of energy we produce is lost to heat and friction.”
Friedberg: Energy infrastructure upgrades for superconductors will take decades
“Assuming huge infrastructure investments, which would take probably decades to do.”
Friedberg: Electronic components will likely be first redesigned with superconductors
“And the first thing that would be changed is likely electronic components. So we would take electronic components and redesign them using superconducting material that would allow you to reduce heat loss and energy loss.”
Friedberg: Simulations show LK-99 requires precise lead-atom replacement to superconduct
“The simulation showed that you have to replace only one of the lead atoms, not any of the other ones, in order for this to work. And that could explain why everyone's having different results in the lab trying to reproduce this.”
Friedberg: Chinese lab observed LK-99 superconductivity at 100 degrees below zero Celsius
“There was a lab yesterday in China that published no resistance, but they had to cool it down to a hundred degrees below freezing, and so it wasn't at room temperature, but it did superconduct, it did have no resistance.”
Friedberg: The viral LK-99 superconductor papers are 'messy' and contain basic errors
“And so both papers are pretty ugly, I gotta be honest. They're like pretty messy, They don't have a great deal of clarity. There's errors in them. There's mistakes. There's redundancy. There's little basic chart editing errors, stupid stuff.”
Friedberg: Confirming LK-99's industrial viability is likely months to years away
“Whether or not this actually does turn into a room temperature superconducting material that can be industrialized and used in all these applications everyone's really excited about, I think it's probably months to years away from knowing.”
Chamath tried to acquire superconductivity IP from University of Rochester
“18 months before that happened, I was trying to get a deal done with the University of Rochester to buy all that IP. So I've been grinding in and around this space for a couple of years.”
Chamath predicts LK-99 is merely diamagnetic, not a superconductor
“My intuition on this is that this is diamagnetic. And I think we're gonna find that, you know, it was, it's like yet another material added to the list of materials, and it's okay.”
Friedberg: No lab has replicated LK-99 zero resistance at room temperature
“No one's yet replicated this at room temperature.”
Friedberg: Chinese lab made 8,000 LK-99 samples to find one working specimen
“There's one in China, and the one in China that measured the zero resistance at negative a hundred degrees, They created 8000 samples, so they found one that worked.”
Friedberg: Drug development costs are rising while annual approvals fall
“If you look at the number of approved drugs every year and the cost per drug is going the wrong direction, and the number of drugs per year is going in the wrong direction.”
Chamath: Ruling class and regulatory capture are blocking major physical innovation
“The reason you, we don't see these kinds of innovations is because the ruling class has clogged up and sclerotically dominated all the places where you'd have this massive Forms of innovation. And regulatory capture.”
Sacks: Former Stanford president's five Alzheimer's research papers were 'basically bogus'
“He had five papers about Alzheimer's research and, you know, related topics like that, where they found out that the papers are basically bogus.”
Sacks: VCs just funded a startup to fulfill Theranos's original promise
“Now, J.Cow, another company just got funded to do the same thing that Theranos promised it was going to do.”
Sacks: Boomers refuse to relinquish power in 'sclerotic' US political system
“We have a sclerotic political system run by octogenarians because the boomers are not relinquishing political power.”
Sacks claims Anthony Fauci funded gain-of-function research in Wuhan
“Fauci had funded gain of function research in the Wuhan lab.”
Calacanis: Only nine countries hold AAA debt ratings from all top agencies
“Only nine countries have AAA ratings from the top three rating agencies, S&P, Global, Fitch, and Moody's. Those are Germany, Denmark, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Singapore, and Australia.”
US federal debt interest payments exceed national defense spending
“Paying the interest on our debt is a larger capital outlay for the federal government than defense spending.”
Friedberg: US Treasury expects $2 trillion in net borrowing over two quarters
“Treasury currently expects privately held net borrowing of 1.007 trillion dollars in this quarter with an assumed end of September cash balance of six 50. And then they said, we expect another eight hundred and fifty two billion dollars of borrowing next quart…”
Poll shows 82% of US voters oppose Social Security cuts for under-50s
“A poll was done. And on that poll, 82% of voters oppose the push to cut Social Security for Americans under 50.”
Sacks: Social Security reform cannot succeed without bipartisan support
“You cannot touch social security as a single party effort. It has to be bipartisan.”
Chamath: Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio is 270% and growing
“On a relative basis, Japan's debt to GDP is 270% and growing.”
Chamath: US will never print a budget surplus again
“It happened almost as an accident and an aberration during the Clinton administration. It'll never happen again.”
Sacks: US 10-year Treasury yields will rise to 5%-7%
“Well, the bond rates go up, and so the tenure goes up, like Freeberg was saying, from 4.2 to somewhere in the five to seven percent range.”
Calacanis thinks sovereign wealth will sustain US venture capital ecosystem
“I think if you look at the amount of sovereign wealth funds and the investment coming from around the world into US venture capital, that will keep the venture machine Cranking here in America”
Sacks claims seven million undocumented immigrants entered US over two years
“They got seven million in the last two and a half years.”
Friedberg: Foreign holdings of US Treasuries dropped from 40% to 30%
“Foreign holdings of US treasuries have declined from 40% to 30% of total treasuries. 70% of treasuries today are held by domestic investors.”
Chamath: The US government's next $2T bond issuance will sell easily
“But that this last two trillion, that'll be the easiest two trillion to sell. There will be a line out the door. Guarantee.”
Calacanis: Trump's 2020 election indictment feels like prosecutors have him 'dead to rights'
“The indictment feels like it's got him dead to rights.”
Calacanis: DOJ looks to have Trump 'dead to rights' in classified documents case
“In addition to that, the DOJ prosecutors also accused Trump of ordering employees to delete security videos and the classified documents case, the coverup, of course, being worse than the crime. Looks like they got him dead to rights on that one as well.”
Sacks: Trump classified documents case has sounder legal footing than Jan 6
“I do think the document's case Is on a sounder legal footing than the January six case. It doesn't involve as many novel legal theories.”
Sacks: Trump's actions following the 2020 presidential election were 'indefensible'
“Let me state right away that I think that what Trump did in the wake of the 2020 election was indefensible.”
Sacks: Prosecutors cannot prove Trump knowingly lied about 2020 election
“The one thing I believe about Trump is that he really does believe the election was stolen. And I think you will never be able to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that he is knowingly lying about that. And as a result of this, you can never prove this case.”
Calacanis: Trump will attempt to overturn the government again if given the chance
“Guy has no morality, and he would have overturned the government if he had the chance. And he will do it again.”
Sacks: Trump likely to win GOP nomination due to prosecution backlash
“And part of the reason why I think Trump likely will be the nominee is because they are creating a backlash in the GOP where people basically think that he's being unfairly prosecuted and persecuted.”
Calacanis: Courts will prove Trump broke law and attempted cover-up in documents case
“No, I think Trump broke the law. I think it'll be proven that he broke the law. I think it'll be proven in the documents case that he also tried to cover it up, but that's just my opinion.”
Calacanis: Capitol rioters would have shot up Capitol and killed hundreds
“These are dangerous domestic terrorists. They would have shot the place up and killed hundreds of people.”
Sacks: 2024 election will be a referendum on 2020
“It's going to be a referendum on what happened in 2020.”
Sacks: Trump will win election subversion case if it reaches Supreme Court
“I think if he has to take the Supreme Court, he's going to win it because it's just a novel legal theory.”