Dec 29, 2023 · 1h 22m · allin
E159: The Bestie Awards! Recapping the best and worst of 2023
Jason Calacanis · 25m spoken David Friedberg · 16m spoken David Sacks · 15m spoken Chamath Palihapitiya · 13m spoken
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In the fourth annual Bestie Awards episode of the All-In Podcast, co-hosts Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Sachs, and David Friedberg recap the defining political, business, scientific, and cultural moments of 2023. Through a series of humorously styled awards and candid debates, the hosts analyze key macroeconomic shifts, AI breakthroughs, geopolitical conflicts, and high-profile corporate turnarounds and failures.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.8% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 5.0 Guest teaching 0.9 Guest disagreement 1.7 The hosts pushing back 1.8
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 51:43 Friedberg calls out Chamath's reaction
Friedberg delivers a grim monologue on pig slaughterhouses in China, and when Chamath breaks into laughter off-camera, Friedberg confronts him directly, saying 'That's not cool, man'.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 8:26 Jason refuses Sacks' abortion spinJason refuses to accept Sacks' argument that the Dobbs decision was a victory for abortion rights, pointing out that Trump stacked the court to restrict women's rights.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 19:22 Friedberg presents Gallup third-party dataFriedberg reframes the political discussion by bringing hard Gallup poll data showing 63% voter desire for a third party to educate the group on voter trends.
The host holds their own ▶ 45:43 Sacks analyzes Ackman's bond trade timingSacks demonstrates deep financial market expertise by detailing the exact dates Bill Ackman shorted and covered 10-year treasuries at the absolute market peak.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holiday Toast and Opening Banter | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | The hosts kick off the annual award show with festive holiday toasts and light banter. No formal technical topics are debated in this casual opening segment. | |
| Biggest Winner in Politics | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | Sacks nominates abortion rights as political winner, framing Dobbs as a return to democratic process. Jason directly pushes back, challenging Sacks' framing as a Republican cover for taking away rights. | |
| Biggest Loser in Politics | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Friedberg nominates the downfall of DEI post-October 7th, successfully convincing Chamath on air to pivot his pick from Biden to the death of acronyms. | |
| Biggest Surprise in Politics and Third-Party Discussion | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Friedberg introduces recent Gallup data showing 63% support for a third political party, elevating the conversation into a structural analysis of American voter polarization. | |
| Biggest Winner in Business | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | The hosts outline top corporate performers, with Friedberg highlighting Microsoft's trillion-dollar market cap expansion under Satya Nadella. | |
| Biggest Loser in Business | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | Friedberg presents an analysis of why the 2021 VC deployment vintage will severely underperform and potentially torpedo half of Silicon Valley venture firms. | |
| Biggest Business Surprise | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Chamath quotes Larry Summers regarding the Delphic Oracles to critique Jay Powell's explicit rate guidance during the December Fed conference. | |
| Best Science Breakthrough of 2023 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | Chamath details the significance of FDA-approved CRISPR gene-editing treatments for sickle cell anemia, highlighting its targeted medical impact. | |
| Biggest Flash in the Pan of 2023 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | Friedberg covers the rapid hype and ultimate disproof of room-temperature superconductor candidate LK-99. | |
| Best CEO of 2023 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | Sacks lays out Jensen Wang's multi-year strategic positioning of NVIDIA GPUs ahead of the AI boom. | |
| Best Investor of 2023 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Sacks and Friedberg praise Bill Ackman's precise timing in shorting and covering 10-year treasuries on the exact day bond yields peaked. | |
| Best Turnaround of 2023 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | Sacks highlights Solana's 10x price recovery from $9 to $92, while dismissing online allegations that pod members dumped tokens on retail. | |
| Worst Company of 2023 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | Friedberg presents stark statistics on animal cruelty at China's Mu Yuan Foodstuff, then calls out Chamath when Chamath bursts into laughter during the sombre explanation. | |
| Best Meme of 2023 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | Sacks details Elon Musk's 'GFY' remark to Bob Iger, analyzing the theatrical hand movements and cultural impact of the moment. | |
| Best New Tech of 2023 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Friedberg argues that locally run open-source LLMs are essential to protecting technological innovation from regulatory overreach. | |
| Best Trend of 2023 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Sacks outlines legal and political pushbacks against corporate and academic DEI programs following Supreme Court rulings. | |
| Worst Trend of 2023 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | Sacks shares a chart mapping the rapid hockey-stick acceleration of the national debt, triggering a breakdown of deficit spending across administrations. | |
| Favorite Media of 2023 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Friedberg reviews 'The Idea Factory', explaining how Bell Labs' regulated monopoly enabled long-term R&D investments that shaped modern computing. | |
| Rudy Giuliani Award for Self-Immolation | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | When Jason awards the self-immolation award to Rudy Giuliani, Sacks pushes back, arguing the $150M defamation judgment was politically motivated and excessive. | |
| 2023 Year-End Reflections and Outlook for 2024 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | The co-hosts share personal highlights and economic reflections on 2023, noting that avoiding a projected recession was a major victory. |
Statements from this episode (48)
Chamath: Trump will easily win the 2024 Republican nomination
“I think he is going to run away with the Republican nomination, and barring some catastrophic meltdown, has a better chance to get into the White House than before this Colorado case.”
Sacks: Abortion rights are the Democrats' only winning political issue
“I'd go so far as to say it's the Democrats' only winning issue, and they are putting it on the ballot everywhere they can.”
Sacks: State-level voting on abortion rights will settle the issue permanently
“The democratic process is now voting to maintain abortion rights. And that is going to settle the issue once and for all.”
Friedberg names DEI movement as biggest political loser of 2023
“My biggest political loser is the DEI movement.”
Sacks names Volodymyr Zelenskyy as biggest political loser of 2023
“My biggest loser in politics for this year is Vladimir Zelensky, the president of Ukraine.”
Chamath: Global ESG asset ownership shrank by 15% ($5 trillion)
“Sustainable asset ownership and ESG ownership across the world shrank by 15%, which you may say, is that a big number or not? That's five trillion dollars.”
Sacks: Jake Sullivan declared Middle East quietest in decades before October 7
“Only eight days before, Jake Sullivan, who's Biden's national security advisor, had declared that the Middle East had been quieter than it had been in two decades”
Chamath: RFK Jr. leads all 2024 candidates in poll favorability
“He is, in terms of favorability in the polls, he's the leading 20 24 candidate right now.”
Friedberg: Gallup polling shows 63% support for a third U.S. political party
“Support for third US political party up to 63%. This is the Gallup data.”
Sacks: Magnificent Seven stock gains dwarfed the rest of the S&P 500
“I think that the S and P four, 93 had a 12% gain this year, which isn't bad, but it was dwarfed by the mean interest in seven, which was almost 80%.”
Friedberg: Microsoft added over $1 trillion in market cap during 2023
“Despite only seeing, I think roughly eight percent top line growth, the business saw its market cap grow by over a trillion dollars, 1.7 to 2.7 trillion this year.”
Calacanis: Uber is the most successful startup from the last market cycle
“This is a company that five years ago the press and the fake news were saying could never be profitable and was going to fail, and now it is the most successful new startup in the last cycle. Bigger than everybody.”
Friedberg: 2021 VC vintage could torpedo 50% of Silicon Valley firms
“And what I've heard from institutional piece this year is that, you know, not only will that vintage underperform, but it could torpedo as many as 50% of firms that are managing capital today in Silicon Valley, and it could switch the capital allocation Model …”
Sacks: Disney was 2023's biggest business loser due to social backlash
“My biggest business loser is Disney. It seems that every aspect of Disney's business the bed in 20, 23. I mean, all their major theatrical releases flopped amidst a conservative backlash against its woke social stances.”
Chamath: Consumers want companies to focus on products, not social issues
“I think the statement from consumers is look, just sell a product, stay in your lane. Make a better and better product for us at lower and lower prices. And otherwise just let the politicians and the voters decide social issues.”
Sacks: Fed intervention in banking crisis likely prevented 2023 US recession
“It's very clear to me that there was a regional banking crisis underway, and the Fed stepping in, I think probably saved us from having a recession this year.”
Chamath: Stocks will melt up until first Fed rate cut, then drop
“I think now what the setup is for 20, 24 is basically we will melt up. Up until the first cut, and then there'll probably be some real selling.”
Chamath: FDA approval of CRISPR sickle cell therapy is a major breakthrough
“I'm going to pick the CRISPR, FDA approved CRISPR treatment of sickle cell anemia. I think that this is just an incredibly important breakthrough.”
Calacanis: Non-invasive fMRI brain decoder is 2023's top science breakthrough
“My big breakthrough was this brain decoder technology.”
Friedberg: Open-source desktop LLMs rapidly surpassed earlier state-of-the-art models
“LLMs that can run on small desktop machines that are open source, that outperform all models that were in existence, even a few months prior.”
Chamath: Sam Bankman-Fried turned out to be an Adderall-addicted grifter
“I think, like, from what looked like a too-good-to-be wonderkind, frankly, just turned out to be an Adderall addicted grifter.”
Sacks: OpenAI board debacle will put nail in coffin of EA movement
“I think the failure of that whole debacle will put the nail in the coffin of the EA movement.”
Calacanis: Taylor Swift is the best CEO of 2023
“She's hands down. The best CEO of twenty-twenty-three for me.”
Chamath: Satya Nadella is the best CEO of 2023
“Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft. I just think the gross tonnage of market cap dollars he added in 2023, plus figuring out how to close Activision, plus retaining maximum optionality with OpenAI, is just a masterclass in heads down management.”
Friedberg: Sam Altman is the best CEO of 2023
“I give it to Sam Altman because I don't think any individual has generated more attention on a private company and its effect on the world and the future. Then Sam Altman and open AI.”
Chamath: Citadel returned $7B to investors in 2023
“They returned seven billion dollars to their investors in 23. I think if you go back since 2020, they've returned more than twenty billion.”
Sacks: Bill Ackman covered bond short at peak 10-year yield
“He shorted bonds for most of the year, making hundreds of millions of dollars, and then on October 23rd, he announced that he was covering his positions, and that it was too risky to stay short in bonds, and he was going long. And that very day was the high po…”
Chamath: GLP-1 drugs like semaglutide are here to stay and transformational
“And I think these semiglutide GLP ones are here to stay. They're transformational on society.”
Sacks: Solana increased roughly 10x in 2023 from $9 to $92
“It began the year at about nine dollars a token. It's now at 92 as of this moment. Obviously it's very volatile, but it's up roughly 10 X this year to date.”
Friedberg: Uber went from $9B loss to $5B EBITDA run rate
“When he took over that business, I think it was an eight to nine billion dollar net loss in 2019. Five billion dollar EBITDA run rate right now.”
Sacks: Pfizer lost $140 billion in market capitalization in 2023
“Its market cap has lost one hundred and forty billion dollars in valuation in 2023.”
Sacks: Pfizer suffers credibility crisis over vaccine transparency
“I would say that the company is also suffering from a credibility crisis by not leveling with the public about the efficacy and safety of their vaccines.”
Calacanis: Fox News faces $2.7B lawsuit trial in 2025
“They're facing an even bigger lawsuit, a 2.7 billion dollar lawsuit With another election technology company that will happen in 20, 25.”
Chamath: Mainstream media is defined by corrupt nature and naked ambition
“I think it's what we all know, and I think it was further exposed this year, just the brazen, naked ambition and corrupt nature of the mainstream media.”
Chamath: No meaningful new technology emerged in 2023
“I don't think there was anything meaningful in 20, 23. I think there was a lot of improvements to things that were founded and started in 20 or 20, 21 or 20, 22. Nothing new that caught my eye this year.”
Friedberg: Open-source local LLMs are critical to bypass AI regulation
“My best new tech of this year, I think is really important as we race to keep the promise of AI alive in the face of increasing government regulation, which is open source locally run LLMs. So you can take a, an LLM and you can run it on your machine. You don'…”
Friedberg: AI co-pilots let one person match output of a dozen engineers
“In single person, Efforts can yield what historically is required six, 12 or more people to do using co-pilot tools and AI.”
Calacanis: Trump and Biden doubled US annual deficit spending over Obama
“In eight years, Obama added eight Trillion. So it was one trillion a year. These new guys getting close to two trillion per year. So they doubled the velocity of spending.”
Chamath: US excess deaths in 2023 spiked 20-26% among young adults
“158,000 more Americans died than expected, which is more than all the wars combined in Vietnam, and when you look at where those death rates are, those death rates were coming from 35 to 44 year olds, which was up 26%, and 25 to 34 year olds, which was up 20% …”
Calacanis: Suicide rates in the Western world rose 36% in 20 years
“In the Western world, at least, 36% increase in suicide over the past two decades”
Sacks: Alternative geopolitical podcasts are more accurate than mainstream media
“I have found these three podcasts to be quite useful in understanding what's happening in the rest of the world. And I found their reporting and analysis to be more accurate than anything you're going to get in the mainstream media.”
Friedberg: Monopolies can enable long-term thinking and innovation
“The opposite may be true, that a monopoly enables investment in long term thinking and long term ideas that you never otherwise see.”
Chamath: Harvard undergraduate applications dropped 17%
“I think Harvard applications were down 17% already.”
Chamath: Ivy League schools will lose donations and government funding
“I expect that trend across the IVs to go way up. I expect Contributions to go down. I expect governments to ratchet down their spending in those schools, and I expect some folks to try to take away their nonprofit status.”
Calacanis: Rudy Giuliani will be indicted in 2024 over fake electors
“And he, I think is going to get indicted next year for these fake Electorates.”