Jan 19, 2024 · 1h 38m · allin
E162: Live from Davos! Milei goes viral, Adam Neumann's headwinds, streaming's broken model & more
Jason Calacanis · 26m spoken Chamath Palihapitiya · 24m spoken David Friedberg · 18m spoken David Sacks · 17m spoken
0:00 / 0:00
▶ Watch on YouTube →
gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In Episode 162 of the All-In Podcast, the hosts satirize the World Economic Forum before analyzing viral speeches by Javier Milei and Jamie Dimon, government inflation dynamics, Adam Neumann's real estate venture Flow, streaming subscription churn, microplastic health hazards, and potential plans for an All-In poker tournament.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.4% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 5.9 Guest teaching 2.0 Guest disagreement 1.9 The hosts pushing back 1.9
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 37:41 Chamath calls out VC fund fee incentives
Chamath forcefully dismisses the notion that VCs invested in Flow because of real estate value, bluntly stating they did it purely to deploy capital and collect two percent management fees.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 38:39 Chamath counters Friedberg on serial founder investmentsWhen Friedberg suggests backing experienced founders even after failure, Chamath firmly rejects the framing, citing Peter Thiel's fund management choices to prove capital return discipline.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 1:23:40 Friedberg educates the pod on nanoplastic measurement techFriedberg presents advanced spectroscopy research showing how 240,000 tiny plastic particles per liter bypass human cellular defenses and cross the blood-brain barrier.
The host holds their own ▶ 53:59 Sacks breaks down unit economics of pure software vs tech-enabledSacks articulates a crisp financial framework distinguishing physical world COGS from digital software marginal costs to expose non-software companies pretending to be tech firms.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Welcome to Davos: The Surplus Elites Kickoff | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | The co-hosts engage in comedic banter and a satirical musical performance mocking the World Economic Forum in Davos. There is no serious debate or technical expertise displayed. | |
| The All-In Podcast Animated Intro Sequence | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Friedberg outlines the shifting global perception of WEF from a prestigious flex to an embarrassing event requiring public apologies. The conversation remains light and observational. | |
| Viral Truths: Javier Milei and Jamie Dimon at WEF | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | Sacks and Chamath highlight speeches from Javier Milei and Jamie Dimon, explaining how their pro-market stances directly challenged the prevalent WEF consensus. The discussion is collaborative and analytical. | |
| Argentina's Warning and US Price Inflation Reality | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Friedberg provides historical context on Argentina's economic decline from 1913 to present and presents a chart showing US price inflation in government-controlled sectors versus free market sectors. Chamath adds commentary on administrative state incentives. | |
| Boeing's Door Plug Blowout and Regulatory Capture | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Chamath details Boeing's lobbying expenditures and pilot union dynamics, while Friedberg cites a government audit of TransDigm Group to demonstrate regulatory capture and 53% EBITDA margins in aerospace supply. | |
| Adam Neumann's Flow and Venture Capital Fee Dynamics | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Chamath candidly argues that venture firms back high-risk real estate deals like Adam Neumann's Flow primarily to deploy capital and collect management fees. Friedberg offers a counter-argument on backing serial founders, prompting sharp exchanges on fund incentives. | |
| Tech-Enabled Businesses vs. Pure Software & Financial Margins | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | Sacks and Chamath define the clear distinction between tech-enabled businesses with physical COGS and pure software or asset-light marketplace businesses. Sacks lays out precise financial definitions for COGS and margin sustainability. | |
| Streaming Industry Economics, Churn Rates, and Content Spending | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | Chamath presents stark annual churn data across major streaming platforms to show the flawed unit economics of consumer video subscriptions. Sacks reinforces this by contrasting B2C churn with B2B SaaS expansion economics. | |
| Consumer Subscription Fatigue and the Manscaped Cancellation Tangent | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | The conversation shifts to lighthearted personal anecdotes about redundant subscriptions, culminating in Chamath ranting about the impossibility of canceling his Manscaped subscription. | |
| Science Corner: Microplastics in Bottled Water and Cellular Impact | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Friedberg delivers a scientific deep dive into Raman spectroscopy data showing 240,000 micro and nanoplastic particles per liter of bottled water that can cross cellular barriers and the blood-brain barrier. | |
| Personal Lifestyle Adaptation and the Global Economics of Plastic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Chamath describes eliminating all plastics from his household, while Friedberg balances the concern by noting the lack of definitive toxicity studies and the global economic necessity of cheap plastic packaging. | |
| Sacks' Plastic Bottle Moment, Produce Packaging, and Biotech Solutions | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Sacks returns drinking from a plastic bottle to humorous reaction. Friedberg explains biotechnology developments in engineering bacteria-produced enzymes to create naturally biodegradable PET plastics. | |
| Podcast Wrap-Up and Proposal for an All-In Poker Tournament | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | The group discusses creating an All-In poker tournament, and Jason shares a story about winning a $1,400 Big O poker tournament at Hollywood Park after getting into an argument with another player. |
Statements from this episode (24)
Calacanis: WEF charges about $40,000 annually to attend Davos
“Basically they try to shake it down for about 40 grand a year to go to this thing.”
Calacanis: Attending Davos shifted from a flex to an embarrassment
“It's been a slow unraveling from this being something that people used to flex about going to Davos. Now people are literally apologizing on social media, ex Twitter, et cetera, explaining why they're going because they're kind of feeling shame and going to th…”
Chamath: Davos is now a glorified enterprise software sales conference
“What is it probably more than anything else now? A glorified enterprise software sales conference, where the reason to go to these conferences for a lot of these companies, I suspect, is that it allows you to close very big deals.”
Friedberg: In 1913, Argentina was wealthier than France, Germany, or Spain
“Argentina at this time was wealthier than France or Germany. Twice as wealthy as Spain and had one of the top 10 highest GDP per capita of any nation on earth in 1913.”
Friedberg: Global extreme poverty fell from 95% in 1800 to under 5% in 2020
“In the year, 1800, we saw 95% of the world's population in extreme poverty. By twenty-twenty, it was less than five percent.”
Friedberg: All US consumer sectors with 20-year price inflation feature government spending
“Everything that's gone up in price is something that the US government has a role in buying or paying for.”
Chamath: Boeing spent $65M on lobbying over four years
“Boeing, as an example, in like the last four years, how much money do you think they've spent on lobbyists and PACs? I'll tell you, sixty-five million dollars. How much have they spent just in the last year? Almost eleven million dollars.”
Calacanis: 737 MAX grounding cost Boeing over $21B
“And for 20 months, the seven, three, seven max models were grounded and that cost the company over twenty one billion dollars.”
Friedberg: TransDigm generates $7B revenue with 53% EBITDA margin
“And they do about seven billion in revenue, three and a half billion in EBITDA. So Tim off to your point a couple of weeks ago about what's the appropriate Competitive EBITDA margin that a company can ultimately achieve. Their EBITDA margin is 53%.”
Chamath: VC firms profit through management fees over carry when exits stall
“The only way to win in a world where your exits are not that great is to actually generate money via fees. Even though that fees are taxed at current income, that's the way to win in venture. It's not carry, it's by fees.”
Chamath: a16z probably won't generate high returns on Adam Neumann's Flow
“But are they going to generate huge rates of return? Probably not, because that's not what real estate is known for.”
Sacks: WeWork failed due to poor financial management, not product quality
“If you look at WeWork, it didn't fail because the product wasn't good. It was because he didn't pay enough attention to the financial aspects of the business.”
Sacks: Real estate sponsors and regional banks will suffer without 2024 rate cuts
“If rates don't come down as expected this year, you know, I think the market's expecting a 150 basis points of rate cuts. If that doesn't actually happen, there's a lot of real estate sponsors who are in trouble. And in turn, there's a lot of regional banks wh…”
Chamath: Software gross margins of 80-90% will erode due to AI competitors
“I don't think that you can justify 80 and 90% gross margins in software when you can use a model and whip up a competitor.”
Chamath: Best-in-class SaaS gross margins have dropped 15% to 20%
“Even the best SaaS businesses have seen their gross margins erode by about 15 to 20%. It used to be that best in class software business can generate 90, 90, one percent, eight, eight, high eighties to low nineties gross margins. Now that's not true. You see a…”
Calacanis: Peacock's exclusive NFL playoff game set US live-streaming record
“It garnered twenty-three million viewers, which makes it the most streamed live event in US history.”
Chamath: Facebook and Google are the only true winners of streaming churn
“So the only winner in all of this is Facebook and Google. The only winners are Facebook and Google, because that's where the ads will appear to try to reacquire these folks, right?”
Sacks: B2C subscription software businesses fail due to high consumer churn
“I personally have never seen a B to C subscription business that works. The churn is just too high.”
Sacks: B2B SaaS creates enterprise value through 120% net expansion
“This is why I basically skewed towards B to B SaaS is because a good B to B SaaS business will have net expansion. Instead of 50% churn, you'll do a 120% expansion. And so you're actually building a subscriber base with long-term value.”
Chamath: Manscaped makes subscription cancellation impossible
“It's impossible to cancel. They won't even let you reset your account so that you can get a link to cancel.”
Friedberg: Glass bottles have five times the carbon footprint of plastic
“They end up being a lower carbon footprint, then using glass about five x, the carbon footprint to use glass instead of plastic in making a bottle to store stuff and move liquids around. 40% cheaper”
Friedberg: PET plastics are not carcinogenic and do not alter DNA
“They find that there's very little genotoxicity or no genotoxicity meaning it doesn't change your DNA. There's no carcinogenicity so it doesn't cause cancer.”
Chamath: Environmental factors like microplastics alter human biology over time
“I think that it does alter the phenotype of the human body over time, and I think you'd have to be insane to bet against that, and I suspect when you look at the rates of depression and autism and Alzheimer's and dementia and autoimmune diseases, Crohn's, rheu…”
Friedberg: Engineered microbes can make PET plastic biodegrade within a year
“There's a lot of efforts right now to develop microbes that can actually biodegrade these PET plastics. So there's so we're engineering these microbes that will produce enzymes. These are little bacteria that'll produce enzymes. Those enzymes can then be made …”