U.S. Senate

also referred to as: us senate

16 statements across 13 episodes · 8 bullish · 3 bearish · 9 people on the record · first statement Nov 4, 2020 by Brad Gerstner · across every show →

Everything said about U.S. Senate, oldest first

Nov 4, 2020 neutral
Prediction Partly held up
Gerstner predicts no blue wave and a divided Senate following 2020 election
“And I think what the markets are starting to price in is that this is not going to be a blue wave. There's no mandate here for massive tax reform. There's going to be a divided Senate. It's going to be hard to pass legislation. That's going to be overly onerou…”
Brad Gerstner Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:45:26 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Markets will rally if Trump wins or Republicans keep Senate control
“Look, I think the market does not want those Trump tax cuts repealed. Stocks just ripped after Trump passed those corporate tax cuts. So if either Trump wins or the Republicans hold on to the Senate, then that would be a reason for the market to rip.”
David Sacks Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:17:16 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Gerstner: US Senate almost certain to stay Republican 51-49
“Is anybody prepared to, I, I'm getting a read from my analysts who are live blogging to me that the Senate is almost certain to go Republican at this point, with Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina going Republican. And Michigan and Montana both in real danger for…”
Brad Gerstner Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 2:23:05 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Gerstner: Democrats will not win control of the US Senate
“They're not going to get the Senate either.”
Brad Gerstner Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:39:40 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Dec 4, 2020 negative
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Trump's election challenges will cost Republicans the Georgia Senate runoffs
“Well, it's not working, and it looks like it's gonna cost Republicans to the Senate, which is something that I think he won't come back from.”
David Sacks Dec 4, 2020 ▶ 49:37 E14: Salesforce acquires Slack, DeepMind’s AlphaFold breakthrough, Trust Fund Socialists & more
Jul 3, 2021 positive
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sacks: Big Tech antitrust legislation will pass the US Senate
“I think it's going to go through. I think we are going to see some big changes.”
David Sacks Jul 3, 2021 ▶ 1:14:58 E38: Bestie brawl, Robinhood's $70M fine & S-1, Delta variant, next gen candidates & more
Jan 22, 2022
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2027
Chamath: A version of the Senate tech antitrust bill will pass
“I think some version of that is going to pass.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 22, 2022 ▶ 28:07 E64: Antitrust standards & enforcement, tech repricing, lab leak obfuscation, E63 reactions & more
May 30, 2022
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Nate Silver: Democrats probably keep Senate if generic ballot GOP lead is 2 points
“If you have a generic ballot that favors Republicans by like two points, the Democrats can probably keep the Senate.”
Nate Silver May 30, 2022 ▶ 33:27 #AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
Jul 8, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: US Senate composition prevents agricultural nitrogen emissions regulation
“And in the US, there's just no way a law is going to pass because the US Senate is controlled primarily by rural states, which are ag heavy.”
David Friedberg Jul 8, 2022 ▶ 54:12 E86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
Jul 22, 2022 positive
Assertion Supported
Sacks: At least 10 Republican senators support codifying same-sex marriage
“There are 10 Republican votes, at least, for this in the Senate. You have a filibuster-proof supermajority in the Senate who would support this.”
David Sacks Jul 22, 2022 ▶ 22:20 E88: First principle politics, China chaos & outlook, state of private/public markets & more
Nov 11, 2023 positive
Assertion Supported
Kushner: Trump administration renegotiated NAFTA in 1.5 years with 80+ Senate votes
“In a year and a half, we renegotiated NAFTA, and it got over 80 votes in the Senate.”
Jared Kushner Nov 11, 2023 ▶ 1:14:24 Jared Kushner: Israel-Hamas War, paths forward, macro picture, AI
Mar 16, 2024 positive
Prediction Held up
Chamath: US Senate will overwhelmingly approve the TikTok divestiture bill
“And it looks like in the Senate, there may be some refinements that happened, but it's going to get largely overwhelmingly approved there as well.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 16, 2024 ▶ 1:05:30 E170: Tech's Vibe Shift, TikTok ban debate, Vertical AI boom, Florida bans lab-grown meat & more
Jan 20, 2025 positive
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Emmer predicts all of Trump's cabinet nominees will be confirmed
“I think everybody's making it.”
Tom Emmer Jan 20, 2025 ▶ 30:00 Inauguration Interviews: Trump's Talent, Dem Rebrand & more w/ Whip Emmer, Reps Swalwell & Khanna
Jun 21, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Sacks: GENIUS Act passed the Senate with 68 votes
“We had this genius act, which is the stable coin bill passed the Senate with 68 votes, got 18 Democrats.”
David Sacks Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 1:38:45 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jul 11, 2025 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
Rabois: Musk's America Party can win House seats but not Senate races
“I think you can win a few house races. I think that's doable. I don't think you can win a Senate race.”
Keith Rabois Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 1:12:40 Grok 4 Wows, The Bitter Lesson, Third Party, AI Browsers, SCOTUS backs POTUS on RIFs
Oct 23, 2025 positive
Opinion
Manchin proposes term limits for Congress, SCOTUS, and the presidency
“If we had two six-year terms for a senator, six two-year terms from a House member, one eighteen-year term for the United States Supreme Court, and one six-year term for the president, maybe we could all do a better job by not worrying about the next election.”
Joe Manchin Oct 23, 2025 ▶ 52:03 Joe Manchin Exposes The Chaos Inside Biden’s White House
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