S&P 500

part of S&P

16 statements across 13 episodes · 3 bullish · 5 bearish · 6 people on the record · first statement Apr 23, 2022 by Jason Calacanis · said 205 times in 96 episodes since 2020 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Chamath Palihapitiya (86), Jason Calacanis (41), David Friedberg (27), David Sacks (18), Brad Gerstner (14), Thomas Laffont (4), Adena Hefets (3), Philippe Laffont (2)

tap a year for its mentions
00301060202020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions
010202020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
001.5103202020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 33 mentions in 19 episodes 2 per episode
2025 52 mentions in 20 episodes 3 per episode
2024 30 mentions in 14 episodes 2 per episode
2023 19 mentions in 10 episodes 2 per episode
2022 46 mentions in 19 episodes 2 per episode
2021 13 mentions in 10 episodes 1 per episode
2020 12 mentions in 4 episodes 3 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about S&P 500, oldest first

Apr 23, 2022 bearish
Assertion Supported
Netflix was the worst-performing S&P 500 stock in early 2022
“According to Bloomberg, as of Wednesday, Netflix was the worst performing S&P 500 so far in twenty-twenty-two.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 23, 2022 ▶ 51:28 E77: Tech work culture, crypto regulation, stablecoins, $NFLX & more w/ Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong
Apr 30, 2022 neutral
Insight
Palihapitiya: Private VC funds must deliver low-to-mid 20s annualized returns
“When you add those three things together, You do need to get paid basically in the low to mid-twenties returns to be justified. Otherwise, you are much better off just owning the S&P 500.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 30, 2022 ▶ 20:36 E78: VC fund metrics that matter, private market update, recession, student loans, Bill Hwang arrest
Apr 30, 2022 negative
Opinion
Friedberg: Top VC funds returning 2.5x barely outperform the S&P 500
“You're going to end up waiting a long time to get your money back. You're going to be locked up and a top performing fund is returning two and a half X after 15 years, which is not much better than kind of investing in the S&P where you could sell that anytime…”
David Friedberg Apr 30, 2022 ▶ 15:05 E78: VC fund metrics that matter, private market update, recession, student loans, Bill Hwang arrest
May 13, 2022 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
Palihapitiya: S&P 500 is probably near a bottom around 3,800
“You know, I actually think we're probably close to a near bottom ish here, 3800 ish in the S&P 500.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 13, 2022 ▶ 1:36:25 E80: Recession deep dive: VC psychology, macro risks, Tiger Global, predictions and more
May 13, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Fed money creation correlated 0.92 with S&P 500 (2018-2021)
“From 19 or from 2018 up until about Q four of last year, there was a .92 correlation between that and the S&P 500 going up.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 13, 2022 ▶ 7:17 E80: Recession deep dive: VC psychology, macro risks, Tiger Global, predictions and more
Oct 14, 2022 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: A quarter of late-2021 S&P market cap was in top tech
“At the end of last year, a quarter of every S&P dollar was crowded in those names, a quarter.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 14, 2022 ▶ 1:21:55 E100: Reflecting on the first 100 shows, fan questions, nuclear threat, markets, Amazon & more
Oct 29, 2022 bearish
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Big Tech S&P market weight dropped to 20%
“The percentage of the, of these companies as a percentage of the S and P is now, you know, off by 500 basis points. It's down to 20%.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 1:03:54 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Mar 3, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Chamath: S&P 500 income-to-cash gap is worst in 30 years
“And so right now we have the worst earning situation. So the worst gap between what we are telling people versus what is actually in the bank account that we've had for 30 years since 1990.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 3, 2023 ▶ 44:04 E118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
Dec 29, 2023 positive
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Magnificent Seven stock gains dwarfed the rest of the S&P 500
“I think that the S and P four, 93 had a 12% gain this year, which isn't bad, but it was dwarfed by the mean interest in seven, which was almost 80%.”
David Sacks Dec 29, 2023 ▶ 24:17 E159: The Bestie Awards! Recapping the best and worst of 2023
Jan 26, 2024
Assertion Supported
Chamath: S&P 500 average gross margin is 43% over 25 years
“The average is about 43% over the last, kind of, 25 years, except in two years”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 26, 2024 ▶ 1:18:17 E163: Market rips, Media RIFs, Texas defies Biden, Fintech reckoning, ARkStorm 2.0 & more
Jan 4, 2025 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath predicts Magnificent Seven will fall below 30% of S&P 500
“The Magate representation on the S&P 500 shrinks below 30%.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 1:44:04 2025 Predictions: Tech, Business, Media, Politics!
Mar 15, 2025
What-if
David Friedberg: Social Security would be $15T if invested in S&P 500
“If in 1971, which was the year that we went off the gold standard in the United States, if we invested the Social Security Trust Fund in the S&P, the balance of the Social Security Trust Fund today would be 15 trillion dollars.”
David Friedberg Mar 15, 2025 ▶ 42:11 Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Mar 15, 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: 60% of middle-class net worth is tied to housing
“60% of a middle-class household's net worth is in their home. Only 10, 10% of their net worth is in owning the S&P 500 in, in index funds or whatever in their retirement accounts.”
David Friedberg Mar 15, 2025 ▶ 53:20 Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
Jun 28, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: S&P 500 could hit 7,000 quickly if Powell aggressively cuts rates
“I think that if Powell starts an aggressive cutting program, either because he has to, or because he's trying to keep his job. I mean, man, you could see the S&P at 7000. Very quickly.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 28, 2025 ▶ 1:24:05 12 Day War, Socialism Wins in NYC, Stocks All-Time High, AI Copyright, Science Corner
Aug 9, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Shapiro: Magnificent Seven drive 60-70% of S&P 500 gains
“60, 70% of all S&P 500 gains are happening in the Magnificent Seven.”
Ben Shapiro Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 18:20 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Apr 17, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Kalanick argues Donald Trump uses the stock market as policy weather vane
“I think this maybe is just the more simple view of things, which is Trump's weather vane is a stock market. Like we see vol is up. We see the VIX is really high, but you know what? The S and P is trading in this band. That's actually fairly tight, given the cr…”
Travis Kalanick Apr 17, 2026 ▶ 1:14:21 OpenAI's Identity Crisis, Datacenter Wars, Market Up on Iran News, Mamdani's First Tax, Swalwell Out
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