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Middle East

also referred to as: the middle east

25 statements across 23 episodes · 7 bullish · 13 bearish · 9 people on the record · first statement Jul 11, 2020 by Chamath Palihapitiya · said 356 times in 129 episodes since 2020 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by David Sacks (115), Jason Calacanis (96), David Friedberg (42), Chamath Palihapitiya (42), Jared Kushner (10), Graham Allison (5), Sheryl Sandberg (4), Ro Khanna (4)

tap a year for its mentions
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015302020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
002.5155302020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 53 mentions in 25 episodes 2 per episode
2025 77 mentions in 28 episodes 3 per episode
2024 67 mentions in 23 episodes 3 per episode
2023 97 mentions in 22 episodes 4 per episode
2022 38 mentions in 19 episodes 2 per episode
2021 13 mentions in 8 episodes 2 per episode
2020 11 mentions in 4 episodes 3 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Middle East, oldest first

Jul 11, 2020 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
The Middle East will probably disintegrate into 30 independent countries
“The Middle East probably disintegrates into 30 countries.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 11, 2020 ▶ 1:03:55 E5: WHO's incompetence, kicking off Cold War II, China's grand plan, 100X'ing American efficiency
Jun 2, 2023 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Middle East nations continue directing investment capital to the West
“You can be sure that Saudi, UAE, and the entire voting bloc in the Middle East are shipping their money west, not east.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 2, 2023 ▶ 49:11 E131: 2024 Fantasy President picks, debt ceiling agreement, Dollar dominance & more
Oct 13, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Middle East won't reach peace without addressing Palestinian treatment
“I don't think we're going to get to a larger deal in the Middle East. We're not going to resolve all these problems until this long festering problem of the treatment of the Palestinians is, is dealt with.”
David Sacks Oct 13, 2023 ▶ 18:26 E149: Hamas terror attacks in Israel: fallout, reaction, next steps
Oct 13, 2023 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Conflict will ultimately renew commitment to Middle East peace
“I actually think that in some ways this is going to create a climate where people are going to really fight to try to resolve this situation, or at least contain the situation. Two States Illusion, the Abraham Accords, and I think they're, this is going to ren…”
Jason Calacanis Oct 13, 2023 ▶ 15:35 E149: Hamas terror attacks in Israel: fallout, reaction, next steps
Oct 27, 2023 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2033
Calacanis: Middle East will be the #2 VC region within a decade
“On a very pragmatic basis, I will say this is going to be the number two region in venture capital, and it's going to be that in 10 years”
Jason Calacanis Oct 27, 2023 ▶ 1:30:12 E151: WW3 risk, War with Iran?, 4.9% GDP, startup failures growing, new Speaker & more
Nov 11, 2023
Insight
Kushner: Middle East divide is good vs. bad governance, not Sunni-Shia
“When I got into my job in 2017, all the experts were saying to me, the big divide in the Middle East is between the Suis, the Sunnis and the Shias. And when I got there, I said, no, no, no, the divide is between leaders who want to give opportunity and betterm…”
Jared Kushner Nov 11, 2023 ▶ 30:05 Jared Kushner: Israel-Hamas War, paths forward, macro picture, AI
Nov 17, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Jake Sullivan claimed the Middle East was peaceful before October 7
“Literally a week or two before October seventh, you had Jake Sullivan saying the Middle East has never been more peaceful.”
David Sacks Nov 17, 2023 ▶ 1:31:59 In conversation with Dean Phillips
Dec 23, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Gaza and Red Sea wars will get resolved quickly
“I suspect that both of these two hot wars get resolved quickly because the larger multi-decade implications for the Middle East are too big to let it be subsumed by the Houthi rebels or Hamas.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 23, 2023 ▶ 22:03 E158: Global trade disrupted, Adobe/Figma canceled, realtors sued, Trump blocked
Dec 29, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Jake Sullivan declared Middle East quietest in decades before October 7
“Only eight days before, Jake Sullivan, who's Biden's national security advisor, had declared that the Middle East had been quieter than it had been in two decades”
David Sacks Dec 29, 2023 ▶ 15:33 E159: The Bestie Awards! Recapping the best and worst of 2023
Jan 6, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Ukraine will be 2024's biggest political loser
“Well, Saxl like this one, but I think Ukraine might be the biggest loser this year as attention shifts to the brewing conflict in the Middle East.”
David Friedberg Jan 6, 2024 ▶ 15:29 E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Jan 13, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks predicts a Middle East war will eliminate Fed rate cuts
“Another thing I think we're likely to see in the Middle East is Continued attacks on US military bases in Iraq and Syria. So that whole region is a powder keg. And if it develops into a wider regional war, then I think you can see an oil shock. And if there's …”
David Sacks Jan 13, 2024 ▶ 22:50 E161: US strikes Houthis, market instability, Q1 rate cuts in doubt, Carta's major mishap, DEI
Jan 26, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Expansion of Middle East conflict could trigger an oil price shock
“I still think we get an oil shock in the Middle East. If this situation broadens into a larger regional war, maybe with Iran, you could get, you know, a shock in the price of oil, and then that could have a big impact on the economy.”
David Sacks Jan 26, 2024 ▶ 6:56 E163: Market rips, Media RIFs, Texas defies Biden, Fintech reckoning, ARkStorm 2.0 & more
Aug 2, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: At least 50% chance Middle East conflict escalates into regional war
“If you were to place odds on, on this, I'd say it's at least fifty-fifty that things escalate into a regional war.”
David Sacks Aug 2, 2024 ▶ 1:01:59 Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Sep 16, 2024 negative
Insight
Mearsheimer: Conflicts in Ukraine and Middle East hinder U.S. Asia pivot
“And furthermore, by getting bogged down in Ukraine, and now bogged down in the Middle East, it's become very difficult for us to pivot to Asia to deal with China, which is the principal threat that we face.”
John Mearsheimer Sep 16, 2024 ▶ 21:13 Deep State, Hegemony & U.S. Foreign Policy: John Mearsheimer vs. Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit
Sep 27, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Middle East conflict has over 30-40% chance of escalating before election
“By the time the show airs, Israel's incursion into Lebanon is going to get bigger, it's going to escalate, and by next week we could be in a full-blown multinational war in the Middle East, and if I am, you know, a betting man, I would bet that the odds are, y…”
David Friedberg Sep 27, 2024 ▶ 1:20:49 OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Nov 8, 2024 positive
Opinion
Palihapitiya: US was closest to Middle East peace during Trump administration
“We have never been closer to substantial and sustained peace in the Middle East in any era of government under any president than we were when Jared Kushner on behalf of Donald Trump negotiated those agreements.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 46:58 Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
May 24, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: Biden administration required individual Commerce licenses for Middle East GPU exports
“In October, 20, 23, the Biden administration basically put a blanket on the whole region, acquiring semiconductors, GPUs. And it required that every export of a GPU or a server that contains a GPU had to get a specific license from the commerce department.”
David Sacks May 24, 2025 ▶ 59:46 Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Jun 28, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Middle East is closer than ever to monetizing its oil
“Now the Middle East is the closest it's ever been To fully monetizing the oil that they have, and to invest aggressively into their own people.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 28, 2025 ▶ 32:36 12 Day War, Socialism Wins in NYC, Stocks All-Time High, AI Copyright, Science Corner
Oct 23, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Manchin: Trump's strongman style works in the Middle East, not Western diplomacy
“He is the perfect president for the Middle East. Strong man, strong arm. He, I say what I mean what I say, and boom, boom, boom, using my military mic. That doesn't work in the western part of the world where we have diplomacy.”
Joe Manchin Oct 23, 2025 ▶ 1:01:45 Joe Manchin Exposes The Chaos Inside Biden’s White House
Nov 4, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Chamath Palihapitiya: Middle East data centers offer low-latency inference to four billion
“One is the proximity that that region has to four billion people. Because if you think about building data centers, ultimately inferences, there's a certain window of time, and you have to be under Several hundred milliseconds, but if you do that and you draw …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 4, 2025 ▶ 25:46 Inside Saudi Arabia’s AI Ambition: Tareq Amin on Building a New Tech Superpower
Nov 4, 2025 negative
Opinion
Amin: Major tech companies do not understand Middle East AI needs
“But I will tell you, I think many companies do not see the Middle East the way I see it today, and they don't understand the requirements and the needs of what we have to do to build the depth and the talents.”
Tareq Amin Nov 4, 2025 ▶ 7:25 Inside Saudi Arabia’s AI Ambition: Tareq Amin on Building a New Tech Superpower
Jan 10, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Middle East conflict will increase among Gulf states if Iranian regime falls
“That there may be more conflict brewing in the Middle East than anyone anticipates for this year that will not necessarily involve Israel and or Iran. It will actually be amongst the other Gulf states as they vie for influence and power, and that the contraria…”
David Friedberg Jan 10, 2026 ▶ 57:33 All-In's 2026 Predictions
Jan 22, 2026 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: Free speech is declining in Europe and rising in Middle East
“We're living in a time where we're seeing freedom of speech expression go down in Europe and go up in the Middle East.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 19:46 Europe's Free Speech Failure and the "Censorship Industrial Complex" with Sarah B. Rogers
Mar 7, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: A democratic Iran would be the Middle East's largest democracy
“Ninety-three million people who have been suffering will be living free in a democracy, and the impact that could have on the world, and obviously that region would be by far the largest democracy in, in the Middle East.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 20:25 Exiled Iranian Prince Reza Pahlavi: Transition Plan and the Fight for Iran's Freedom
Mar 9, 2026
Assertion Contradicted
Allison: Patriot missile defense systems intended for Ukraine were redirected to the Middle East
“All the patriots that were to hope to prevent missile strikes from Russia on Ukraine are now In the Middle East.”
Graham Allison Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 15:28 “This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War
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