LLMs

15 statements across 13 episodes · 9 bullish · 5 bearish · 9 people on the record · first statement Feb 11, 2023 by David Friedberg · across every show →

Everything said about LLMs, oldest first

Feb 11, 2023 neutral
Insight
Friedberg explains LLMs generate non-deterministic statistical inferences, not static discrete outputs
“These are also not deterministic models, and they're not deterministic outputs, meaning that it's not a discrete And specific answer that's going to be repeated every time the model is run. These are statistical models. So they infer what the right answer coul…”
David Friedberg Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 1:00:43 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
Feb 11, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya argues limiting AI tokenization to sentence blocks severely degrades quality
“If you limit How they can tokenize to just being all entire sentences. The product will not be that good. Like the whole idea of these LLMs is that you're running, you know, so many iterations to literally figure out what is the next most best word that comes …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 1:00:11 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
Feb 17, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Alternative LLMs will emerge faster than realized
“Over time, the ability to run LLMs and the ability to scan, to scrape data, to generate a novel, you know alternative to the ones that you guys are describing here is gonna emerge faster than we realize.”
David Friedberg Feb 17, 2023 ▶ 1:25:02 E116: Toxic out-of-control trains, regulators, and AI
May 19, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Regulating and auditing local LLM deployments will be nearly impossible
“I think that the point of view is just that this is going to be a near impossible task to try and track and approve LLMS and audit servers that are running LLMS and audit apps and audit what's behind the tools that everyday people are using.”
David Friedberg May 19, 2023 ▶ 15:47 E129: Sam Altman plays chess with regulators, AI's "nuclear" potential, big pharma bundling & more
Sep 26, 2023 negative
Opinion
Khosla: Major AI companies are overly focused on scaling LLMs
“Almost all the efforts I have seen are very limited. They're all trying to scale LLMs. And, you know, I spend my time looking at what besides LLM will play An important role. I haven't seen one effort among the majors that isn't following the same model.”
Vinod Khosla Sep 26, 2023 ▶ 18:55 All-In Summit: In conversation with Vinod Khosla
Dec 29, 2023 positive
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Open-source desktop LLMs rapidly surpassed earlier state-of-the-art models
“LLMs that can run on small desktop machines that are open source, that outperform all models that were in existence, even a few months prior.”
David Friedberg Dec 29, 2023 ▶ 39:48 E159: The Bestie Awards! Recapping the best and worst of 2023
Feb 15, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2030
Calacanis: NYT will eventually make more from LLMs than ads or subs
“I think the New York Times will make more money from licenses from LLMs than they will make from advertising or subscriptions eventually.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 15, 2025 ▶ 1:28:21 JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
Sep 27, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: MIT-Microsoft framework achieves 94% planning accuracy on LLM benchmarks
“And they were able to achieve planning accuracy of up to 94% on some standardized benchmarks that are used for chain of thought reasoning and planning Using LLMs. This is a 66% absolute improvement over baseline models.”
David Friedberg Sep 27, 2025 ▶ 1:00:38 H-1B Shakeup, Kimmel Apology, Autism Causes, California Hate Speech Law
Sep 29, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Dave Ricks personally uses AI models to audit information on his drugs
“I do do it myself. I also do it just to see what the different models are producing about our drugs.”
Dave Ricks Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 24:26 Inside the GLP-1 Gold Rush: Eli Lilly CEO on New Breakthroughs, Addiction & Mental Health, Pricing
Dec 6, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Friedberg: Video AI allows far wider product differentiation than text LLMs
“And so the amount of differentiation that's possible in video AI is I would say this point today so much wider than the differentiation and text based AI like what we see with LLMs.”
David Friedberg Dec 6, 2025 ▶ 20:36 OpenAI's Code Red, Sacks vs New York Times, New Poverty Line?
Jan 25, 2026 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Goldstein: LLMs will first bridge pilot-to-machine communications in aviation autonomy
“With the advancements of LLMs, it actually allows this interesting period of time where you can now communicate with a machine in a way you couldn't really before, and so there's this probably middle ground that happens where there's pilots talking to machines…”
Adam Goldstein Jan 25, 2026 ▶ 1:30:13 The Future of Everything: What CEOs of Circle, CrowdStrike & More See Coming in 2026
Jan 25, 2026 negative
Insight
Kurtz: LLMs empower less-skilled hackers to execute nation-state level cyberattacks
“You're minting new adversaries because you don't have to have all the knowledge that you had to have in the past. You can ask any number of LLMs and you can get answers back. So what's happened is the attack timeline has been compressed. You can automate all o…”
George Kurtz Jan 25, 2026 ▶ 53:47 The Future of Everything: What CEOs of Circle, CrowdStrike & More See Coming in 2026
Jun 2, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Friar: LLMs are not commoditizing because value lies in agentic layers
“A year ago people talked about the commoditization of the LLMs. And frankly, it's gone the opposite because as you start building an agentic layer, and we've all started to use this word harness, but the harness is what brings the context, the memory, right?”
Sarah Friar Jun 2, 2026 ▶ 27:05 OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar: IPO, AI Rivalries, New Device, and Spending $100B+ on Compute
Jun 6, 2026 negative
Insight
Marshall: Current LLMs are blind to real-world physical data
“I like to say, like, all the cool stuff that we're doing on the, with LLMs now, is really based on just the text of the internet being absorbed into these models, which is incredibly powerful already, but they don't know shit about the real world. I call them …”
Will Marshall Jun 6, 2026 ▶ 31:22 The IPO Comeback: Why Tech Giants Are Finally Going Public | All-In Liquidity IPO Panel
Jul 14, 2026 positive
Insight
Calacanis: LLMs perform better with long, spoken stream-of-consciousness prompts
“What these LLMs actually do really well with is taking a massive stream of consciousness where you just keep talking and talking and talking, so I'll give it a one to two minute prompt, then I let go, and it has changed everything.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 14, 2026 ▶ 13:26 The Trillion-Dollar Industries AI Is Disrupting: Voice, Law & the End of the Billable Hour
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