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Graham Allison

9 statements across 2 episodes · 0 bullish · 3 bearish · 2 people on the record · first statement Sep 20, 2023 by Graham Allison · said 21 times in 15 episodes since 2023 · across every show →

On the record as a speaker too: Graham Allison's record, appearances and statements → this page counts the times other people say the name.

Mentions by year

brought up most by David Friedberg (6), Chamath Palihapitiya (5), Rand Paul (4), Jason Calacanis (3), Vinod Khosla (1), David Sacks (1), Brad Gerstner (1)

tap a year for its mentions
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0242023202420252026episodes it came up in
001.322.542023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 4 mentions in 4 episodes 1 per episode
2025 7 mentions in 3 episodes 2 per episode
2024 4 mentions in 4 episodes 1 per episode
2023 6 mentions in 4 episodes 2 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Graham Allison, oldest first

Sep 20, 2023 negative
Opinion
Allison: Rebuilding Defense Department would yield double performance at half cost
“And in fact, I think if you were able to greenfield, ah, the Defense Department today for half the money, you could get twice the bang for the buck.”
Graham Allison Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 36:15 All-In Summit: In conversation with Graham Allison
Sep 20, 2023
What-if
Allison: Without post-9/11 operations, multiple 9/11-scale attacks would have occurred
“Had thousands of people not been taken off the chessboard, you would have seen many repeats of nine 11.”
Graham Allison Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 33:55 All-In Summit: In conversation with Graham Allison
Sep 20, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Allison: A US-China war in the next decade would spark accidentally
“If there's a war between the U.S. And China in the next year, or four years, or decade, how is it gonna happen, in my view, the most likely? Not this way. It's gonna happen the same way the last war happened.”
Graham Allison Sep 20, 2023 ▶ 14:57 All-In Summit: In conversation with Graham Allison
Mar 9, 2026 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2031
Allison: Armed factions, not democracy, will likely succeed Iran's current regime
“If I were betting it, it'll end up that the guys with the guns will in some version be the next iteration.”
Graham Allison Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 14:12 “This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War
Mar 9, 2026 negative
Opinion
Graham Allison: Taiwan is inherently indefensible against a determined Chinese invasion
“Taiwan is halfway around the world, as President Trump says, and 90 miles off the shore of China, and we're far away, and we have a lot of other things to worry about, so it's a little bit like Cuba. So inherently indefensible if China were seriously determine…”
Graham Allison Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 30:43 “This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War
Mar 9, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Graham Allison advised every Defense Secretary since Kissinger
“He's advised every Secretary of Defense since Kissinger. He's helped dismantle 12,000 Soviet nuclear weapons, and his book, Destined for War, remains the definitive framework for understanding the U.S.-China relationship.”
David Friedberg Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 0:24 “This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War
Mar 9, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Allison: Current US wealth concentration is politically unsustainable in a democracy
“It's just not stable in a democracy. If everybody gets a vote, And if the top 10 or 20% are taking 80% or 70% of the pie, that's not Stable and sustainable, I think.”
Graham Allison Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 58:05 “This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War
Mar 9, 2026
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Graham Allison estimates a 5% chance of China attacking Taiwan through 2027
“I think the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan this year or next year or even into 28, but let me just do 26 and 27, absent some major provocation by Taiwan or some other third incident is very low. I'd put it at about where the prediction markets are, five per…”
Graham Allison Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 25:35 “This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War
Mar 9, 2026
Assertion Contradicted
Allison: Patriot missile defense systems intended for Ukraine were redirected to the Middle East
“All the patriots that were to hope to prevent missile strikes from Russia on Ukraine are now In the Middle East.”
Graham Allison Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 15:28 “This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War
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