Fed

“The Fed has pumped 2.5 trillion of QE into the economy post vaccine, post retail recovery.”

“I think that probably the Fed and the ECB are really raising this time next year. They're probably in a really, really tighter posture.”

“And if the Fed stops tapering and, you know, hikes rates two or three times over the next 12 or 18 months, man, this is an ugly, ugly stock market.”

“Now, today, the, ah, the government debt, ah, is a 125% of GDP. So, if, and this goes back to the Druckenmiller point from previous pod If the Fed were to jack up interest rates to say the historical norm of 4.9%, debt service would go from two percent of the …”

“If liquidity is reduced next year, I think that could Reverberate through a bunch of markets, including, you know, everything from sports cards, you know, collectibles, which have gone through the roof, to art, to crypto, to, you know, maybe some gross stocks,…”

“What it's really created has been this massive bout of inflation, which then could cause an ultimate recession because the Fed has to react.”

“The Fed now is raising rates or projecting raising rates very quickly, which is creating, it was created a huge market downturn. It's a very blunt instrument. It could cause a downturn or a recession.”

“It's almost certain at this point that they're not going to do a half point rate hike.”

“So I think what the Fed's going to do is get even more aggressive. You're going to probably see, you know, a lot of fifties, maybe even a 75 point hike. You probably are going to see them, you know, even ratchet up quantitative tightening until there is a bit …”

“So, you know, it stands to reason that if the Fed is going to take three to five trillion dollars of value out, then we have to rewrite the equity markets by three to five trillion dollars at a minimum. And then you have to rewrite and re baseline for earnings…”

“The reason the stock market went up Dollar for dollar was actually tied to the growth in the M two money supply. The correlation was .92. So for every dollar that the fed printed, the stock market went up by 92 cents.”

“We're gonna have two years of ringing out, right? Because there's no bailout here by the Fed. There's no V-shaped recovery for these companies.”

“23, 24, 25. Those can be some real power law years, I think, because we're going to have, just based on what the Fed is saying, five and a half percent interest rates for the foreseeable future, which is, it's a huge number.”

“Unless the Fed steps in here over the weekend, we're going to see potentially a run on the regional banking system, a Cascade like we saw in 2008.”

“The markets have completely said, we now discredit what you did. And they're basically banking that the fed will be forced to cut rates massively in short course because the crisis will be so severe that it'll outweigh the risk of inflation.”

“If inflation remains persistently high, Then the fed won't be able to lower interest rates. So they'll need to keep them elevated. They might even need to keep raising them. And if that happens, they'll continue to be incredible stress on the banking system an…”

“I think the Fed on matters relating to financial regulation should be giving more attention to market prices and the market values of assets. And less to a variety of book value regulatory concepts than it tends to emphasize.”

“I think the Fed should be recognizing that the extraordinary size of the U.S. Budget deficit And where it is in prospect is gonna complicate the macro policy task and should be more willing to call that out, ah, than it is.”

“I think there's a larger probably risk that we don't really have inflation on a secure path down below three and a half, and that the Fed thinks it's got it under control, and it doesn't. And it's gonna have to go back to, ah, raising, ah, rates.”

“Eventually the Fed monetizes all this stuff. It's the only path, which by the way, will inflate a lot of financial assets.”

“The silver lining is that it probably now tips the balance of action in September to a cut, and if it was 25 basis points, There's probably going to be a lot of folks lobbying the Fed to cut 50, and I think that they probably have enough numerical justificatio…”

“The Fed is acting in, in a manner that is as much politically motivated as financially metric motivated, because the financial metrics, some of the most critical leading indicators, particularly around liquidity and the credit health of the American consumer a…”