betting markets

also referred to as: betting market

8 statements across 5 episodes · 2 bullish · 1 bearish · 3 people on the record · first statement Oct 3, 2020 by David Sacks · across every show →

Everything said about betting markets, oldest first

Oct 3, 2020 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Trump's 2020 election chances are higher than betting markets imply
“Yeah, and it's probably bigger than 30%. Yeah, it's probably bigger, slightly bigger than what the betting markets are giving them credit for.”
David Sacks Oct 3, 2020 ▶ 1:06:43 E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more
Nov 4, 2020
Assertion Supported
Hellmuth: Betting markets favored Joe Biden for three straight months before election
“The betting odds, the markets were, have been in Biden's favor for three straight months.”
Phil Hellmuth Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 2:55 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Financial and betting markets flipped 180 degrees on election night
“Literally what we've seen in the last 35 minutes is both the equity markets, the currency markets, And the betting markets flip 180 degrees from where they have been, not just all day, but frankly, where they have been probably for the last few months.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 20:41 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 bullish
Assertion Supported
Hellmuth: Donald Trump is a 3-to-1 favorite in betting markets
“Right now, if you want to bet, Trump is a three to one favorite and there's been billions of dollars bet in England, Australia, all over the world. He's a three to one favorite.”
Phil Hellmuth Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 16:26 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Oct 18, 2024 neutral
Insight
Sacks explains why prediction markets price narrow election leads near 100%
“So if for sure you knew the election was 51 49, The betting markets would swing to a hundred zero.”
David Sacks Oct 18, 2024 ▶ 2:27 Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Oct 18, 2024 neutral
Insight
Sacks: Prediction markets track momentum while political polls lag by two weeks
“The betting markets seem to go based on momentum. So it, like, it indicates the swing in momentum. And then the polls obviously take a week or two.”
David Sacks Oct 18, 2024 ▶ 2:55 Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Nov 16, 2024 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Late betting market shifts aligned with media narratives, suggesting manipulation
“Look, I have no evidence of this whatsoever, but the action in the betting markets and the narrative they were trying to create in the media do line up. So if somebody was going to investigate election manipulation, this is what they should look into.”
David Sacks Nov 16, 2024 ▶ 46:07 Trump's market impact: Bitcoin, M&A, IPOs + transition picks; Polymarket CEO raided by FBI
Oct 24, 2025
Insight
Palihapitiya notes AI and data science are erasing sports betting margins
“You have a lot of data science and AI being used that shows that there's a lot of odd behaviors. So it really was the squares versus the sharps. And if you had the inside edge, you were just printing money. Now that all of that is becoming more transparent, th…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 24, 2025 ▶ 17:58 NBA Gambling Scandal, Billionaire Tax, Tesla's Future, Amazon Robots, AWS Outage, Dangerous AI Bias
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