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2024 US presidential election

also referred to as: 2024 u.s. presidential election

16 statements across 15 episodes · 3 bullish · 7 bearish · 7 people on the record · first statement May 30, 2022 by Nate Silver · across every show →

Everything said about 2024 US presidential election, oldest first

May 30, 2022 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Silver: 10% or higher risk of severe US constitutional crisis in 2024
“It may not resolve itself in the end of democracy, but like, that's like a, you know, a risk that's, you know, in the 10% range or maybe higher of a severe constitutional crisis in twenty-twenty-four and maybe repeated that in twenty-twenty-eight and so forth,…”
Nate Silver May 30, 2022 ▶ 30:31 #AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
Jun 24, 2022 negative
Prediction Partly held up
Calacanis: Joe Biden will not run for re-election in 2024
“Well, I don't think he's gonna run again. I think they're gonna have to put another candidate.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 24, 2022 ▶ 1:33:32 E84: Markets update, crypto collapse, Russia/Ukraine endgame, state of the podcast
Aug 4, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: 2024 election will be a referendum on 2020
“It's going to be a referendum on what happened in 2020.”
David Sacks Aug 4, 2023 ▶ 1:24:46 E140: LK-99, Sclerotic establishments, Fitch downgrades US debt, Trump indicted... again
Sep 8, 2023 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Palihapitiya: Hunter Biden will be in jail by 2024 election
“I think there's a very good chance that Biden's son. He's in jail by the time the election comes around”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 1:53:10 In conversation with Chris Christie
Dec 1, 2023 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carlson: Opponents will try to shut down X in next 12 months
“I think this election, if that platform stays free for the next 12 months, You know, I think we have a shot at least of a real election, but if it does, and I think they're gonna do whatever they can to shut it down.”
Tucker Carlson Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 1:13:33 Tucker Carlson: State of America, leaving Fox News, Media Control, Politics, and more
Feb 17, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: 30% to 50% chance a third party forms post-election
“Yes, and I think that there is a very reasonable chance, and I would put reasonable somewhere between 30 and 50%, that this third party gets created after the presidential election.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 17, 2024 ▶ 1:28:19 E166: Mind-blowing AI Video: OpenAI launches Sora + Is Biden too old? Tucker/Putin interview & more
May 31, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Democrats will win 2024 election if they replace Biden in June
“I think the Democrats need to immediately, this month, in June, do the switcheroo. And if they do, I think they win in the landscape.”
Jason Calacanis May 31, 2024 ▶ 16:45 Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?
Aug 9, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
David Sacks predicts more bad economic news will emerge post-2024 election
“I think there's more bad news that's going to come out after the election, because there's too many incentives for people to hide it.”
David Sacks Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 44:36 Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Sep 13, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Thiel predicts the 2024 presidential election will not be close
“My one contrarian view on the election is that it's not going to be close. You know, most presidential elections aren't, and you know, one side just breaks. You know, 20, twenty-sixteen, twenty-twenty, we're super close, but two-thirds of the elections aren't,…”
Peter Thiel Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 2:50 Peter Thiel: The Coming Collapse No One Is Prepared For
Sep 27, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Middle East conflict has over 30-40% chance of escalating before election
“By the time the show airs, Israel's incursion into Lebanon is going to get bigger, it's going to escalate, and by next week we could be in a full-blown multinational war in the Middle East, and if I am, you know, a betting man, I would bet that the odds are, y…”
David Friedberg Sep 27, 2024 ▶ 1:20:49 OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war
Oct 11, 2024
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Major unexpected disruptions will occur before the 2024 election
“And then I think the third thing is that we should now buckle in because if the last two elections are any guide, there are going to be a bunch of spanners in the works between now and November.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 11, 2024 ▶ 1:19:59 Hurricane fallout, AlphaFold, Google breakup, Trump surge, VC giveback, TikTok survey
Oct 18, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Friedberg: The 2024 presidential election outcome is already baked in
“It just feels like this election's baked and we should just go to the polls and be done.”
David Friedberg Oct 18, 2024 ▶ 11:10 Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Oct 18, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Trump is the only candidate who could win in a landslide
“Right now, the only candidate who looks like he could get a landslide is Trump. Otherwise it's gonna be very close.”
David Sacks Oct 18, 2024 ▶ 1:16:50 Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
Oct 25, 2024 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis predicts surge in fake news and deepfakes before election
“And I think there's going to be a lot of fake news, maybe even deep fakes that come out, you know, in the last week or two.”
Jason Calacanis Oct 25, 2024 ▶ 58:26 Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
Nov 1, 2024 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: 2024 is the first podcast election that could decide the outcome
“I think this is the first podcast election where you can make the argument that podcasts will decide the election.”
David Sacks Nov 1, 2024 ▶ 47:48 Inflated GDP?, Google earnings, How the media lost trust, Rogan/Trump search controversy, Election!
Nov 16, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Sacks: MSNBC ratings fell roughly 50% after the election
“I think they're down, MSNBC ratings are down, like, 50% since the election.”
David Sacks Nov 16, 2024 ▶ 24:51 Trump's market impact: Bitcoin, M&A, IPOs + transition picks; Polymarket CEO raided by FBI
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