2020 U.S. presidential election

also referred to as: 2020 us presidential election

19 statements across 9 episodes · 6 bullish · 5 bearish · 7 people on the record · first statement Mar 15, 2020 by Chamath Palihapitiya · across every show →

Everything said about 2020 U.S. presidential election, oldest first

Mar 15, 2020 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: COVID-19 stimulus could increase Trump's reelection odds
“If he is able to salvage an enormous economic stimulus package, I think the odds are on his side that history will judge that he will have done a good job. And more than that, his odds of getting reelected are actually higher than in the absence of Corona.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 15, 2020 ▶ 16:06 E0: COVID-19 Political, Economic & Social Ramifications featuring David Friedberg
Apr 11, 2020 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Trump wins in a landslide if economic recovery is V-shaped
“I think that if there is a V-shaped recovery of any kind Trump will win in a landslide.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 11, 2020 ▶ 1:03:47 E2: Rebooting economy, understanding corporate debt, avoiding a depression & more with David Sacks
Jun 20, 2020 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Trump has 75% chance of losing 2020 election, odds will narrow
“Right now I think it's sort of, 75, 25 he loses. I think that's going to get closer to 55, 45 as the date comes close.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 20, 2020 ▶ 1:09:53 E4: Politicizing the pandemic, Police reform, Twitter vs Facebook with David Sacks & David Friedberg
Jun 20, 2020 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Trump has a 70% chance of winning the 2020 election
“I still think Trump's going to win. I'd say 70% chance Trump wins.”
David Friedberg Jun 20, 2020 ▶ 1:11:03 E4: Politicizing the pandemic, Police reform, Twitter vs Facebook with David Sacks & David Friedberg
Jul 31, 2020 positive
Prediction Partly held up
Sacks predicts the 2020 election will be a blowout win for Biden
“Well, I don't think the election, right now it's not turning to be close at all. It's turning to be a blowout. And so I think we'll avoid the crisis because it's not close and it looks like Biden's gonna run away with it.”
David Sacks Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 1:28:21 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Jul 31, 2020 positive
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Friedberg predicts Donald Trump will win the 2020 presidential election
“I'd go Trump.”
David Friedberg Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 1:21:32 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Jul 31, 2020 neutral
Prediction Held up
Chamath predicts the 2020 election will be decisive, avoiding a contested outcome
“I do not think there will be a hanging chat issue in this election. This is going to be, one way or the other, incredibly decisive on an electoral college level.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 1:28:07 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Oct 3, 2020 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Joe Biden has a 65% to 70% chance of winning
“65, 35, approaching seventy-thirty.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 3, 2020 ▶ 1:06:03 E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more
Oct 3, 2020
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Inability to hold rallies could swing election against Trump
“Yeah, I think if he can't do rallies, I think You know, that could easily swing the election a couple of points and cause them to lose.”
David Sacks Oct 3, 2020 ▶ 18:43 E9: Trump has COVID, First debate reactions, Coinbase letter response & more
Nov 4, 2020 negative
Opinion
Gerstner: 2020 election results reflect protest against coastal sanctimony
“The sanctimony that exists in urban areas. You know, and coastal elites is just, it's, you know, this is what we're seeing people vote against, right? The idea that you're going to close down the state of Michigan, not allow people to take their boats out on l…”
Brad Gerstner Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:22:14 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020
Prediction Held up
Newman predicts 2020 presidential election winner will be known within a week
“I think we'll know within a week who won.”
Michael Newman Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 2:58:24 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020
Assertion Supported
Hellmuth: £368 million wagered on UK betting markets for 2020 election
“Three hundred and sixty-eight million pounds. Trump is now a three to 10 favorite.”
Phil Hellmuth Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 2:12 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath predicts 2020 presidential election winner will be known tomorrow
“Did you know, I think we're going to know tomorrow.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 2:58:30 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 negative
Assertion Supported
Hellmuth: Pollsters were miles off on the 2020 election
“But wow, the polls are, pollsters were miles off on this, and this is just amazing.”
Phil Hellmuth Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 7:15 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Michael Newman predicts five battleground states will face Florida-like election disputes
“Yeah, we're gonna have five Floridas.”
Michael Newman Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 2:40:43 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 4, 2020 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Markets will turn risk-off if no clear election winner emerges tonight
“If that's the case tomorrow morning, if we go to bed in another hour and a half, or if we finish this thing in another hour, and there is no winner, a clear winner, I think markets will be back to sort of modestly risk off tomorrow.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 4, 2020 ▶ 1:16:36 E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
Nov 11, 2020 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Mainstream media will be the biggest loser post-2020 election
“Do you know who the biggest loser is going to be coming out of this, I think? Not when you think holistically about the ecosystem. It's going to be the media. Because they have made an absolute fortune over the last four or five years picking aside.”
Jason Calacanis Nov 11, 2020 ▶ 50:57 E12: Biden wins, Pfizer vaccine, markets rip, Trump's next act, COVID endgame scenarios & more
Nov 25, 2020
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Rudy Giuliani won 1 out of 36 election lawsuit rulings
“I think Rudy was like one in 35, meaning I think he won one ruling and lost 35.”
David Sacks Nov 25, 2020 ▶ 1:00:44 E13: SPACsgiving Special! Vaccine news, innovation vs regulation, fixing higher ed, challenge trials
Sep 1, 2022
What-if
Sacks: Suppressing Hunter Biden laptop story probably did not flip 2020 election
“I don't know whether it would have sworn the election or not. Probably not. Probably by itself it's not.”
David Sacks Sep 1, 2022 ▶ 46:32 E94: NFT volume plummets, California's overreach, FBI meddling, climate change & national security
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