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Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks, across all 44 shows. Pick shows below, then mix any filter with any other.

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20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: Elon Musk will make Twitter successful within five years
“If, again, you put me in a time machine five years from now, my gut is I come out and it, yes, the answer is yes. Just because this guy does things well and sometimes it takes a while, right? And there's going to be a lot of experimentation. It's going to be a…”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 1:12:04 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Tim Urban: Berkeley and UCLA require diversity statements for chemistry professorships
“Berkeley, right now, and UCLA, and about 20 other schools. If you want to apply to be a chemistry professor, The first thing that you do is you have to fill out a diversity statement, and it's called, that sounds nice, a diversity statement, but it's actually,…”
Tim Urban May 26, 2022 ▶ 42:39 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: AI could surpass human intelligence within the next decade
“That could be changing, like, Next decade. Like in our lifetimes.”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 11:51 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: AI-enabled bioweapons pose a severe risk in the near future
“I think that in the near future, of course, you're going to have a higher risk of Bad guys with using AI, you know, to do things like manufacturing scary bioweapons things like that, that you really, you know, things that could really kill a billion people.”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 20:13 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
Urban: Robot nannies and housekeepers will arrive in the 2020s
“Housekeepers, robot nannies and housekeepers will be in the twenties.”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 54:28 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: AI could automate his writing job within two years
“12 months ago I had any inkling that AI might steal my job within, like two years. Didn't, I would have guessed, like, 20. So that's, I mean, and that's one of a hundred different things that I've been shocked about with AI in the last few months like everyone…”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 1:11:09 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Urban: James Bennet was fired for publishing Tom Cotton's op-ed
“We see James Bennett, the editor of the New York Times op-ed section, getting fired because he published an op-ed by Tom Cotton that 62% of the country agreed with, But it didn't jive with woke orthodoxy.”
Tim Urban May 26, 2022 ▶ 23:38 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Urban: Apple fired diversity head Denise Young Smith over comments
“You see Denise Young at Apple, a black woman who's the head of diversity, who says, to me, diversity is not, you know, it's more complicated than just about something like race. When I look at 12 blue-eyed, blond-haired guys, I see diversity. I see different p…”
Tim Urban May 26, 2022 ▶ 23:51 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
Y COMBINATOR Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: Humanity Faces Impending Extinction or a Radical Utopian Paradigm Shift
“It's either going to be the coolest story for humans or it's the end. This is the, That is a, it is a 501 page book. And that's it. Or this is the beginning of like the new paradigm. We have a new BC AD situation. We have a BC, which is like before something t…”
Tim Urban Jan 3, 2018 ▶ 5:52 Tim Urban of Wait But Why · Y Combinator
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Partly supported
Urban: 62% of Americans supported Tom Cotton's military deployment op-ed
“During the George Floyd riots, Tom Cotton writes, they'll send in the troops, which 62% of Americans agreed with it. In that moment.”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 45:23 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2039
Tim Urban predicts humans will land on Mars around 2035
“I would, if I had to guess now, I'd say, you know, 20, 35, something around there.”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 52:42 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: AI will solve climate and lifespan challenges by the 2050s
“I think that AI, if things go well, I think we're going to have so many answers. In the near future. I think we're going to solve so many problems that seem really hard to us right now. I think 20, you know, these problems won't be a match for 20 fifties human…”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 1:06:38 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: The world in 2080 will be amazing, not a dystopia
“So deep down, I still kind of feel like if I went into a time machine and got out in 2080, I'd be entering an amazing world, not a horrible dystopia. But I don't know, I couldn't really defend that argument.”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 1:08:31 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tim Urban: Republican concern over national debt vanished under Donald Trump's tax package
“The classic example, the debt was the worst thing in the world during Obama's presidency, and then Trump comes in office, starts doing up these tax packages that are adding to it, and suddenly it's no problem.”
Tim Urban May 26, 2022 ▶ 11:51 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Not checkable as stated
Urban: LLMs lack general intelligence and cannot run a gas station
“LLM still can't run a gas station, you know, just because it involves all of these things that for us with general intelligence, it's no big deal for an AI. It's gonna have, it's just, it's not there. So we're still the king of the general intelligence castle.”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 15:09 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: Humanoid Robots Will Spread From Warehouses to Commercial Settings
“Humanoid robots seem like they're going to be everywhere. First in the industry, warehouses, then commercial, you know, pouring your coffee and folding clothes and, you know, the clothing store.”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 54:15 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: AI will accelerate the fracture of shared societal reality
“We already see, of course, the fracture of the shared reality because of tribal narrow cast media, you know, each telling their own story and social media, creating bubbles of reality. And I think AI can just accelerate these trends.”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 0:10 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Held up
Urban: Wait But Why will remain a two-person team
“Six years ago, we hired Alicia who's the manager of lots of things which is just like the second in command at Wait But Why and does a little of everything. And that's about it. I was just like, I don't want a big team.”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 11:01 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Urban: 'Why Generation Y Yuppies Are Unhappy' reached 14M readers
“Fourteen million people read that in a week.”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 33:50 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: AI danger stems from super-potency, not malicious intent
“AI is probably gonna be dangerous not because It's going to be evil Terminator robots, but because it's going to be super powerful with unintended consequences”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 58:46 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
STARTUP IDEAS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: Humanity will likely solve the Fermi Paradox within fifty years
“It seems like it's something I suspect that we're going to get an answer to in the next, like, 50 years. Like, I think we're at the end of our, I think this is the, this is one of the last, not last, it's one of like the, it's the, it's one of the big question…”
Tim Urban May 12, 2022 ▶ 53:49 Are We Alone In The Universe? (with Tim Urban)
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Not checkable as stated
Urban: Airplane technology has stagnated for 40 years
“So we basically haven't progressed in like 40 years with airplanes really.”
Tim Urban Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 53:14 How AI Might Solve the Alien Mystery: Thought Leader's Paradox · Joe Lonsdale
20VC Prediction Didn’t hold up
Tim Urban plans to launch a new podcast in 2023
“I am starting a podcast later you know, this year probably”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 12:13 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Urban: Wait But Why's SpaceX post inspired readers to join the company
“That post, like, inspired some young people to go work at SpaceX and work in that industry, so I'm very happy about that”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 56:52 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Urban: Self-imposed deadlines drive output of 2,000 to 3,000 words daily
“If I have a deadline I've imposed on myself, and I say, this post is going to be up Friday, then I can, like, probably write two or 3000 words a day, Thursday and Friday, and get it up, you know.”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 37:16 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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