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MAD Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: No single AI model will ever dominate software development
“There is never going to be one single model that rules them all, but the world of software development is just way too broad for this.”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 23:29 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
MAD Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Seamless developer-to-agent transition is key to winning AI dev tools
“Enabling developers to move between those categories and being able to pick the agent That provides the best ROI or do it themselves. I think that's the key for winning in the next few years.”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 36:42 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
MAD Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: AI coding agents require 90% benchmark accuracy for broad adoption
“90% is going to be the min bar for broad adoption and saying this is now established technology and we need to look for the next big thing.”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 51:57 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
MAD Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Primary developer skill will become task specification for AI agents
“And then the skill of the developer will be to know how to describe the task in such a way that the agent can do the job with almost no additional revisions needed.”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 55:15 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
MAD Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Simple software replaced by prompts will lose value
“Everything that I can easily replace with a single prompt is, is not going to have any value. It will have the value of that prompt and the inference and the tokens, but that's often a few dollars.”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 1:02:34 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
NO PRIORS Prediction Held up
Dohmke: Copilot will resolve GitHub issues via draft PRs in 2025
“But we think, you know in 20, 25, we get into a place where you can assign a GitHub issue, a well-defined GitHub issue to a co-pilot and then it starts creating a draft pull request and it outlines the plan and then it works through its plan and you can, simil…”
Thomas Dohmke Mar 13, 2025 ▶ 1:34 No Priors Ep 106 | With GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke
NO PRIORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: AI will converge product management, design, and engineering roles
“I think tomorrow you're going to, as a designer, type effectively the same specification as a product manager and you have, you know, an AI to render the code for the wireframes and then apply, you know, grounding out of your design system to make it look like…”
Thomas Dohmke Mar 13, 2025 ▶ 21:07 No Priors Ep 106 | With GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke
NO PRIORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Developer tool differentiation will come from UX, not models
“And so I think the differentiation is going to come from both, you know, where the developer gets the most The best experience and doing that day to day, right? Like where can I, you know, start my morning, pick up, you know, something I want to work on, explo…”
Thomas Dohmke Mar 13, 2025 ▶ 26:39 No Priors Ep 106 | With GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke
NO PRIORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Completely personalized, natural-language software will arrive in five years
“I think that future that will happen in the next five years, for sure. It's just the question is how, how good this job is going to be, and can I just tell it, Springbank is coming up, same hotel, same family, you know, say, and it books me the trip, and the …”
Thomas Dohmke Mar 13, 2025 ▶ 29:34 No Priors Ep 106 | With GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke
NO PRIORS Assertion Supported
Dohmke: Copilot yields 25-28% end-to-end developer productivity gains
“And then we're talking about, you know, 25, 28% productivity gains on, on the end to end 55% or higher on, on the coding task.”
Thomas Dohmke Mar 13, 2025 ▶ 31:16 No Priors Ep 106 | With GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke
NO PRIORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: AI software pricing will be compute-based rather than human-salary equivalent
“I think it's going to be compute based or some unit that's, you know, a derivative of, Compute as a metric.”
Thomas Dohmke Mar 13, 2025 ▶ 32:56 No Priors Ep 106 | With GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke
MAD Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: OpenAI's Codex solved over 90% of GitHub interview coding exercises
“I think the model was able, when, with multiple attempts to solve more than 90% of these coding exercises, of these two and 30 coding exercises.”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 13:10 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
MAD Assertion Supported
Dohmke: Most developers have adopted AI tools, unlike other knowledge workers
“Most developers have adopted some form of AI tooling into the workflow already, while other knowledge workers, other white collar workers are still early in that adoption journey.”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 34:35 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
MAD Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Copilot AI competitors run model inference on Azure AI Foundry
“Many of these AI code generation companies that compete with GitHub Copilot are running their inference on Azure AI Foundry.”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 39:09 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
NO PRIORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: AI dev tools will remain a multi-vendor ecosystem
“In AI, I think we're going to see the same thing. We're going to see a stack or universe of companies that offer different parts of the software development life cycle, and developers pick the one that you know, they like the most, that they have experience wi…”
Thomas Dohmke Mar 13, 2025 ▶ 22:54 No Priors Ep 106 | With GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke
NO PRIORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Software prices will deflate as certain categories become free
“I think we're going to see deflation of software prices. And so I think it's a mix of both, you know, some things we won't pay for it anymore.”
Thomas Dohmke Mar 13, 2025 ▶ 38:44 No Priors Ep 106 | With GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke
NO PRIORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Future programming languages will be closer to human natural language
“I think there's going to be a next programming language after Python and TypeScript and Rust and Rust in itself, you know wasn't really a thing five years ago. And then, so there's going to be more languages that are probably closer to human language and to be…”
Thomas Dohmke Mar 13, 2025 ▶ 42:45 No Priors Ep 106 | With GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke
MAD Assertion Supported
Dohmke: GitHub passed $2 billion in ARR in July 2024
“We announced last July so almost a year ago that GitHub had passed two billion in, in annual revenue run rate ARR.”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 8:02 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
MAD Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: GitHub grew from $200M ARR in 2017 to $2B in 2024
“You can go back in time, 2017, a year before the deal, then GitHub leadership team had announced two hundred million. In AR. So those are not exactly snapping to the timing of the deal, but you get an idea between 2017 and 20 24 revenue when 10 X, right?”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 8:11 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
MAD Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Parallel local and cloud agent workflows will be software development's future
“And so this continuous spectrum of, I can assign tasks, test generation, bug fixes, you know, security vulnerabilities bootstrapping a new feature to the coding agent to, I can take that code base into my local IDE, or I can keep working just as I'm used to al…”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 54:55 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
NO PRIORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Improved model reasoning will push SWE-bench scores near 100%
“As the models get better in reasoning we're going to get closer to a hundred percent of this VBench, which is that benchmark out of 12 repos open source Python repos a team in Princeton identified 2200 or so issue pull request pairs. Effectively, all the model…”
Thomas Dohmke Mar 13, 2025 ▶ 2:25 No Priors Ep 106 | With GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke
NO PRIORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Developers spend only 2-3 hours daily writing code
“But if you actually look in the developer life the day to day, you know, in, in, in most companies that's maybe two or three hours of your day that you're actually writing code. And then you're spending an equal amount of time of reviewing code of your coworke…”
Thomas Dohmke Mar 13, 2025 ▶ 13:49 No Priors Ep 106 | With GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke
NO PRIORS Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2035
Dohmke: Developers will maintain legacy PHP and COBOL for a decade
“And so we are still I think for like a decade or so at least going to have software developers that work in, in lots of old school, you know, PHP code and COBOL code and all that stuff.”
Thomas Dohmke Mar 13, 2025 ▶ 19:03 No Priors Ep 106 | With GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke
NO PRIORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Specialized code models were replaced by general base models
“And then we got this model that then eventually became Codex which was this code-specific, you know, version of the model. And today that, you know No longer really exists, right? Like today, everybody sits on top of one of these more powerful base models.”
Thomas Dohmke Mar 13, 2025 ▶ 25:17 No Priors Ep 106 | With GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke
NO PRIORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Coding competitions must assume developers are using AI
“As these AI models get better, these competitions of who's the best hacker or coder Are going to have to move to a whole different level where you assume that the developer is using AI to solve the challenges because otherwise it's going to be way too easy.”
Thomas Dohmke Mar 13, 2025 ▶ 44:42 No Priors Ep 106 | With GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke
MAD Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Dohmke: Visual Studio was a billion-dollar business in 2018
“Back, back in 2018 being Visual Studio, you know, in itself the IDE, you know, the old school IDE in itself, a billion dollar business”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 6:59 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
MAD Assertion Supported
Dohmke: GitHub revenue is included in Microsoft's Azure quarterly KPI
“From a business perspective, that meant the GitHub revenue became part of the Azure KPI that is reported, you know, in, in earnings calls every quarter from Microsoft.”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 7:50 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
MAD Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Autocompletion remains GitHub Copilot's most used feature
“And so Copilot does that autocompletion that continues to be the most used features because it is always there.”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 19:10 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
MAD Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Microsoft has about 70,000 employees in R&D
“I think Microsoft all up has about 70,000 people in research and development. Not all of them are engineers, there's some product managers and designers, but the majority are writing code.”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 45:40 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
MAD Assertion Supported
Dohmke: Multilingual AI coding benchmarks hover around 20% to 30% success rate
“And so in Python, I think the big best benchmarks is 60 to 70%, depending what model agent combination you take. But if you look at multilingual, we are in the 20 to 30% range for these benchmarks.”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 58:04 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
NO PRIORS Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Dohmke: Non-coding GitHub PM used AI agent to merge real pull request
“We actually, you know, when we recorded the demo for the Padawan project we actually had one of our product managers use an issue and the agent create the progress themselves. Right. A PM that usually doesn't code and doesn't write code in the code base was ab…”
Thomas Dohmke Mar 13, 2025 ▶ 5:36 No Priors Ep 106 | With GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke
NO PRIORS Assertion Supported
Dohmke: GitHub Copilot preview generated 25% of code early on
“Soon after we launched Copilot Preview it already wrote like, 25% of the code.”
Thomas Dohmke Mar 13, 2025 ▶ 10:56 No Priors Ep 106 | With GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke
NO PRIORS Assertion Supported
Dohmke: Copilot reached 77,000 organizations and 1.8M paid users
“I think the last number we shared was a few quarters ago, 77,000 organizations using Copilot and back then the number of paid users was 1.8 million paid users.”
Thomas Dohmke Mar 13, 2025 ▶ 30:16 No Priors Ep 106 | With GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke
MAD Assertion Supported
Visual Studio Code was one of GitHub's largest projects before acquisition
“VS Code, the editor, was already on GitHub, and in fact, one of the biggest projects on GitHub in terms of number of contributions.”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 4:01 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
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