Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: No single AI model will ever dominate software development
“There is never going to be one single model that rules them all, but the world of software development is just way too broad for this.”
Insight
Dohmke: Context-aware AI agents with tool calls outperform fine-tuned models
“So this iterative process that the agent does with the help of the tool calls in all the context makes it so much more powerful than a fine-tuned model could ever be.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Seamless developer-to-agent transition is key to winning AI dev tools
“Enabling developers to move between those categories and being able to pick the agent That provides the best ROI or do it themselves. I think that's the key for winning in the next few years.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: AI coding agents require 90% benchmark accuracy for broad adoption
“90% is going to be the min bar for broad adoption and saying this is now established technology and we need to look for the next big thing.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Primary developer skill will become task specification for AI agents
“And then the skill of the developer will be to know how to describe the task in such a way that the agent can do the job with almost no additional revisions needed.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Simple software replaced by prompts will lose value
“Everything that I can easily replace with a single prompt is, is not going to have any value. It will have the value of that prompt and the inference and the tokens, but that's often a few dollars.”
Disclosure
Dohmke: AI was part of Microsoft's 2018 GitHub acquisition memo
“One additional thing was in fact AI and saying, we believe there's a future that where we can train AI models on the graph is I think what we called it of all the source code that is stored on, on GitHub, but also on the relationships between the developers, y…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: OpenAI's Codex solved over 90% of GitHub interview coding exercises
“I think the model was able, when, with multiple attempts to solve more than 90% of these coding exercises, of these two and 30 coding exercises.”
Insight
Dohmke: Most company codebases are too small for meaningful fine-tuning
“If you look at the individual repository or set of repositories, that code base isn't actually big enough to have a meaningfully fine tuned model.”
Assertion Supported
Dohmke: Most developers have adopted AI tools, unlike other knowledge workers
“Most developers have adopted some form of AI tooling into the workflow already, while other knowledge workers, other white collar workers are still early in that adoption journey.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Copilot AI competitors run model inference on Azure AI Foundry
“Many of these AI code generation companies that compete with GitHub Copilot are running their inference on Azure AI Foundry.”
Insight
Dohmke: Corporate acquirers should adopt a VC mindset to accelerate targets
“I think that is a crucial part of how everybody should think about acquisitions, which is the buyer should accelerate the target company. It's almost like a venture capitalist investing into a startup, right? You invest money to accelerate the company you're i…”
Assertion Supported
Dohmke: GitHub passed $2 billion in ARR in July 2024
“We announced last July so almost a year ago that GitHub had passed two billion in, in annual revenue run rate ARR.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: GitHub grew from $200M ARR in 2017 to $2B in 2024
“You can go back in time, 2017, a year before the deal, then GitHub leadership team had announced two hundred million. In AR. So those are not exactly snapping to the timing of the deal, but you get an idea between 2017 and 20 24 revenue when 10 X, right?”
Disclosure
Dohmke: GitHub does not allow enterprise model fine-tuning today
“We do not today.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Parallel local and cloud agent workflows will be software development's future
“And so this continuous spectrum of, I can assign tasks, test generation, bug fixes, you know, security vulnerabilities bootstrapping a new feature to the coding agent to, I can take that code base into my local IDE, or I can keep working just as I'm used to al…”
Insight
Dohmke: Industry underestimates the capabilities of current AI models
“I think we're underestimating how much you can do with the models that are out today, not the ones that are coming next year or next month, the ones that we have today where I think we're only touching the surface of what's possible with those leasing capabili…”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Dohmke: Visual Studio was a billion-dollar business in 2018
“Back, back in 2018 being Visual Studio, you know, in itself the IDE, you know, the old school IDE in itself, a billion dollar business”
Assertion Supported
Dohmke: GitHub revenue is included in Microsoft's Azure quarterly KPI
“From a business perspective, that meant the GitHub revenue became part of the Azure KPI that is reported, you know, in, in earnings calls every quarter from Microsoft.”
Disclosure
GitHub delayed launching conversational AI coding before ChatGPT due to poor quality
“Conversational coding is what we called it was one of the ideas we had. And the only reason we didn't ship that was that it wasn't good enough.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Autocompletion remains GitHub Copilot's most used feature
“And so Copilot does that autocompletion that continues to be the most used features because it is always there.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: Microsoft has about 70,000 employees in R&D
“I think Microsoft all up has about 70,000 people in research and development. Not all of them are engineers, there's some product managers and designers, but the majority are writing code.”
Assertion Supported
Dohmke: Multilingual AI coding benchmarks hover around 20% to 30% success rate
“And so in Python, I think the big best benchmarks is 60 to 70%, depending what model agent combination you take. But if you look at multilingual, we are in the 20 to 30% range for these benchmarks.”
Assertion Supported
Visual Studio Code was one of GitHub's largest projects before acquisition
“VS Code, the editor, was already on GitHub, and in fact, one of the biggest projects on GitHub in terms of number of contributions.”
