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20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2029
Chirls: 75% of 2020-2021 vintage VC funds won't return principal
“If you think about the twenty-twenty-one vintage, I think a one X fund will be top quartile. I think returning your money is, I think returning your LP's money on almost any timeframe will be top quartile. So in that sense, probably 70, I would guess 75% of th…”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 21:11 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chirls: Junior partners at big VCs are compensated on deployment speed
“Your junior partner at these big firms, sort of like a VP at Goldman, they are compensated and promoted based on money velocity, not money returns.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 0:00 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Chirls: Large VC firms operate like transactional Wall Street banks
“Basically all the same people from Lehman showed up. Highly transactional, all about the money. There was no real art or creativity to it. It was very private equity, like finding the company, dressing it up a little bit, handing it off to the next guy. And I …”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 3:04 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Partly supported
Chirls: VC is a Ponzi scheme guaranteeing 20% fees regardless of performance
“The venture Ponzi is you raise a fund, you take two percent management fees for 10 years guaranteed, it does not matter how well that fund does, and you've taken 20% of that fund and put it in your pocket.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 5:36 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Chirls: Common and preferred shares yield identical returns in outlier startup wins
“There's a few in every fund that really matter, at least matter from a financial performance perspective. And when they really matter, the common is, is exactly the same as the preferred, is exactly the same as the preferred two, the series A, they're all wort…”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 27:03 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Chirls: Legal agreements cannot prevent VCs and founders from screwing each other
“My experience over the last 10 years, there's the legal agreements don't matter. There are always ways for an investor to quote unquote screw over a founder or for a founder to screw over an investor. It goes both ways. And the legal, the illegal agreements do…”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 29:19 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Chirls: Asylum Ventures Blacklists Untrustworthy VCs Permanently
“Now there's many folks that I will never work with again. And maybe that doesn't matter to them, but like I think it will. There will be a company, there will be an opportunity where someone wants to work with a company that we work with we'll never work with …”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 35:49 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Chirls: Defense tech is popular among mega VCs due to capital inefficiency
“I believe that the big venture firms, defense tech is great, right? Defense tech, those companies are going to be insanely capital inefficient. They're going to require insane amounts of money. My view is like American dynamism and defense tech as a theme. It'…”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 37:38 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chirls: VCs can raise new funds by matching NASDAQ returns
“The returns need to just look like about the NASDAQ. It just needs to be, it just needs to be roughly in line with the NASDAQ for them to continue to raise. And by the way, that's true for all of venture. That's true for all of venture, which again is why, lik…”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 38:10 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chirls: No VC firm has ever determined a startup's success or failure
“I have never found that any investment we've made ever, or really any, I've never seen any VC Be truly the difference between success and failure of a company. Period.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 46:56 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC What-if
Chirls: Coinbase would have succeeded without Andreessen Horowitz and USV
“Would Coinbase not have been successful? If they hadn't take money from Andreessen Horowitz and USV. No, I think they would have been just as successful.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 47:20 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Chirls: VCs push founders to raise money for markups and promotions
“VCs are obviously incentivized for founders to think that or to be scared of that. Some ways it's a threat and there's all sorts of weird incentives in the middle, right? It's I'm raising my fund. I need to show some markups or I'm a trying to get a promotion …”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 53:40 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Chirls: Building a startup will ruin your life whether it succeeds or fails
“Building a startup is truly awful. It's like a truly, truly bad experience. And it will ruin your life basically in various different ways. And by the way, that's if it goes well or if it doesn't go well.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 56:11 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Thrive, Lerer Hippeau, and First Round have abandoned true seed investing
“Many of the best VCs in New York have moved up the stack. And what that means is they've raised dramatically larger funds in the last two years. And so, Folks like Thrive Capital, and Lyra Ventures, and First Ground, and folks that you might consider as tradit…”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 14, 2015 ▶ 8:31 20 VC 071: Pre-Seed Investing, Why Now Is The Best Time with Nicholas Chirls @ Notation Capital
20VC Opinion
Accelerator demo days are a terrible way to evaluate startup founders
“I personally, I don't go to demo days. I'm just kind of, I'm, you know, I'm kind of burnt out by them. I think it's a, it's actually it's kind of a shitty way to get to know a founder, you know, is to listen to them pitch on a stage amongst hundreds of other f…”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 14, 2015 ▶ 18:20 20 VC 071: Pre-Seed Investing, Why Now Is The Best Time with Nicholas Chirls @ Notation Capital
20VC Opinion
Chirls: Foundation model startups align with mega-VC deployment goals
“Like the foundation models are like a big, big VC firm's dream. They literally require billions and billions of dollars to go buy effectively NVIDIA GPUs.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 0:17 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Chirls: Private equity allows managers to profit even if portfolio companies fail
“The private equity scam is like, we probably all know this is like, you can invest in a company. It doesn't actually matter how well that company does. You can take a lot of money out of that company, and if it goes bankrupt, it doesn't matter.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 5:23 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Chirls takes zero salary at Asylum Ventures to reinvest fees into hiring
“I don't pay myself at a silo. I'm putting every single dollar into the, into hiring people and building the firm.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 8:53 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Chirls: Stage, sector, and geo-focus are not sustainable VC advantages
“I think for the most part, stage, sector, geo-focuses these things get arbitraged away. They are not sustainable positions in venture, in my view. The only sustainable position is actually standing for something meaningful.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 12:17 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Chirls: Early-stage venture returns require investing in ignored sectors
“If I've learned, I don't know, one thing over the last 12 years or 13 years investing is that the only way that I personally have ever made money, and I think this is probably true for most of early stage investing, is to invest in something that no one cares …”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 14:24 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Contradicted
Chirls: Top-quartile 2015 vintage VC funds haven't returned capital
“The top quartile, the best 25% of venture firms from the twenty-fifteen vintage have not returned their investors all their money. We're nine years in. The top quartile has not given their investors their money back.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 20:50 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Chirls: Founders restructured an acquihire to cut out early investors entirely
“There's one that comes to mind around Aquihire that we that you kind of talked about many years ago where we actually introduced the portfolio company to the acquirer. It was understood that the cap table would sort of get Taken care of. Like not, again, not m…”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 33:34 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Chirls: Wealthy venture capitalists rarely reinvest personal money into their own firms
“I would argue that over time, even wealthy folks that have made a lot of money in this business or venture don't put any money into their firms.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 9:47 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Chirls: Mega-VCs Create Market Opportunities for Boutique Seed Funds
“I'm actually grateful for the big banks in venture. I actually don't want them to go away because that they actually provide our opportunity. They provide us an opportunity to provide an alternative to founders to that system.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 25:37 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Contradicted
Chirls: Bison Trails hit $30M revenue 18 months post-investment
“18 months later, they were doing almost thirty million in revenue, and they were a monopoly on the market.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 40:59 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Chirls: VC platform services like BD and recruiting do not move the needle
“So like what I think I'm, what I said, what I don't think has, what I don't think moves the needle is services. I don't think that services, you know, a business development team, a recruiter, et cetera, are actually going to be the difference between success …”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 49:18 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Chirls: Only a small percentage of VCs actively destroy startup value
“In my experience, actually, it's a smaller percentage that actually destroy, like, when I think about lots of VCs in the community that we work with, like, there's not a long list of folks where I'm like, oh, this person is gonna be, like, dangerous to the com…”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 51:42 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chirls: Non-institutional VCs will win more founders over next decade
“I believe actually the less institutional and banker-like you can look to founders over the next decade, the more likely you are to win. So I think that the most of venture is deeply focused on becoming institutional. It feels more professional. I think the mo…”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 1:04:14 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
First-time founders build the most important companies, not repeat founders
“I think if you look at some of the biggest, most important companies over the last 10 years, they're first time founders, you know including Mark Zuckerberg at Facebook. So, you know, I don't I don't think repeat founders are always the best founders.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 14, 2015 ▶ 12:57 20 VC 071: Pre-Seed Investing, Why Now Is The Best Time with Nicholas Chirls @ Notation Capital
20VC Opinion
New York early-stage startup valuations remain much more practical than Silicon Valley
“I think that what we've seen in terms of seed and pre-seed and even Series A in New York is is much more much more practical valuations. I mean, I don't think it's super crazy here, here in New York. Certainly out in the valley, I think you're seeing I think y…”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 14, 2015 ▶ 14:09 20 VC 071: Pre-Seed Investing, Why Now Is The Best Time with Nicholas Chirls @ Notation Capital
20VC Disclosure
Chirls: Notation Capital invested in Solana's Series A round
“We invested in the Solana Series A. So that's kind of similar. No one cared.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 42:20 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chirls: Asylum Ventures only sells secondary stock when founders are selling
“We will only do that when the founder is selling. At, but I will say when the founder is selling, we almost always do it.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 59:45 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Chirls: Asylum Ventures targets average pre-seed entry valuations of $8M to $10M
“Eight to 10.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 1:03:56 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Opinion
Chirls: Andy Weissman and Bryce Roberts represent top independent VC alternatives
“This has changed over time, but right now probably Andy Weissman and Bryce Roberts. I think they represent many of the things that I just described about being the alternative to the big AUM firms. They think independently, and they have the guts to be themsel…”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 1:04:45 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
Chirls passed on Hugging Face and Runway at the pre-seed stage
“I miss both hugging face and runway at pre-seed which is painful that both, both New York companies absolutely represent the thing I'm describing, which is they were building things before anyone actually cared.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 1:05:59 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Didn’t hold up
Notation Capital will exclusively back startups based in New York City
“Yeah, so at least today we're on New York, very much a New York City focused fund. The, so, so every single one of our companies that we work with will be primarily based in New York.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 14, 2015 ▶ 15:01 20 VC 071: Pre-Seed Investing, Why Now Is The Best Time with Nicholas Chirls @ Notation Capital
20VC Disclosure
Chirls: Asylum Ventures is a $55M fund writing $500K to $2M checks
“Fifty-five million dollar fund. We write 500 K to two million dollar checks.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 2:11 Nicholas Chirls: Why Big VCs Ruin Startups, VC is a Ponzi Scheme Today & Most VCs are Bankers |E1198 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Disclosure
USV partner Andy Weissman helped Notation Capital raise its first fund
“These folks were not just mentors in the sense that they helped me learn the business, but actually they helped us raise Notations First Fund in many ways, and so Andy Weissman has been has been a mentor to us, who's a partner at Union Square Ventures.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 14, 2015 ▶ 5:33 20 VC 071: Pre-Seed Investing, Why Now Is The Best Time with Nicholas Chirls @ Notation Capital
20VC Assertion Supported
New York City consistently produces billion-dollar tech exits like Etsy and Tumblr
“New York, we believe, has now shown that it consistently can produce billion plus dollar exits, and so that's companies like Etsy and Mongo and Tumblr and a bunch of others, you know, a bunch of e-commerce companies as well.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 14, 2015 ▶ 7:19 20 VC 071: Pre-Seed Investing, Why Now Is The Best Time with Nicholas Chirls @ Notation Capital
20VC Disclosure
Notation Capital writes $150K checks into pre-seed rounds under $500K
“We write on average, 150,000 dollar checks into what we, Consider pre-seed rounds, so that is typically rounds of 500 K or less”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 14, 2015 ▶ 9:27 20 VC 071: Pre-Seed Investing, Why Now Is The Best Time with Nicholas Chirls @ Notation Capital
20VC Disclosure
Notation Capital's inaugural venture fund is just under $8 million
“Yeah, so it's just under eight million dollars.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 14, 2015 ▶ 20:55 20 VC 071: Pre-Seed Investing, Why Now Is The Best Time with Nicholas Chirls @ Notation Capital
20VC Disclosure
Notation Capital targets high single-digit equity ownership for initial pre-seed checks
“We're focusing on having initially relatively high ownership in the companies that we work with. That's usually high single-digit percentage.”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 14, 2015 ▶ 21:34 20 VC 071: Pre-Seed Investing, Why Now Is The Best Time with Nicholas Chirls @ Notation Capital
20VC Disclosure
Notation Capital raised its first fund from 30 individual and institutional LPs
“So we have about 30 LPs. Half of those are, or I'd say, you know, in terms of dollar amounts, about half the fund is individuals many of whom are founders and partners that are at other VC firms and folks that, you know, we've worked with in the community for …”
Nicholas Chirls Sep 14, 2015 ▶ 23:05 20 VC 071: Pre-Seed Investing, Why Now Is The Best Time with Nicholas Chirls @ Notation Capital
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