The Ledger, every show

“In the cloud four system card, they reported blackmailing of the human. The setup was that the AI had access to the engineer's email and They told the AI that it was going to be like replaced with a, you know, a less ethical version or something like that. It …”

“When we start to give the next generation of the model these power tools, and they start to solve previously unsolved engineering problems, I think you start to have something that looks kind of like super intelligence.”

“And if you look back to GPT three, you know, there's a huge leap. I would contend that the leap is similar from GPT four to five.”

“But I would be very surprised if you can't get your nuts and bolts Web app, mobile app type things spit out for you for far less and far faster than, and probably honestly with significantly higher quality and less back and forth with an AI system than, you kn…”

“The problem at launch was that that router was broken. So all of the queries were going to the dumb model, and so a lot of people literally just got Bad outputs, which were worse than oh three because they were getting non thinking responses.”

“I don't think too many people, at least that I, you know, think are really plugged in on this, are pushing out too much past 20 30 at all.”

“So I don't think these things go to zero probably in a lot of environments, but I do expect that you will see significant headcount reduction in a lot of these”

“I think if progress stopped today, I still think we could get to 50 to 80% of work automated over the next, like, five to 10 years.”

“If you extrapolate that out a bit and you're like, okay, take, take the four month case just to be a little aggressive. That's three doublings a year. That's eight X task length increase per year. That would mean you go from two hours now to two days. In one y…”

“For those that are using open source, I do think it's true that the Chinese models have become the best.”

“And it just seems like we're getting more benefit from the post training and the reasoning paradigm than scaling. But I don't think either one is I definitely don't think either one is, is dead.”

“Well, I mean, a big one from just the last few weeks was that we had an IMO gold medal with pure reasoning models with no access to tools from multiple companies. And, you know, that is night and day compared to what GPT-IV could do with math, right?”

“And they gave it legitimately unsolved problems in science, and in one particularly famous, kind of notorious case, it came up with a Hypothesis, which it wasn't able to verify because it doesn't have direct access to actually run the experiments in the lab, b…”

“They now have this fin agent that is solving like 65% of customer service tickets that come in.”

“They've created this auditor AI agent that just won a state-level contract to do the audits on, like, a million transactions a year of these You know, these packets of documents, again, scanned, handwritten, all this kind of crap and they just blew away the hu…”

“That's another data point, by the way, from this was from the O three system card. They showed a jump from like low to mid single digits to roughly 40% of PRs actually checked in by Research engineers at OpenAI that the model could do. So prior to O three, not…”

“And this is one area where I do think China might be actually ahead of the United States right now”

“The scaling law idea, which is, you know, it's definitely worth agreeing, taking a moment to note that it is not a law of nature. You know, we do not have a principled reason to believe that scaling is some law that will go indefinitely. All we really know is …”

“The O-three class of models got about a 50% on that benchmark, and GPT 4.5 popped up to like 65%. So, in other words, it basically, of the things that were not known to the previous generation of models, it picked up a third of them.”

“It's like 90 it's like a 95% discount from GPT-IV to GPT-V.”

“It's been enough for this group at MIT to use some of these relatively, you know, narrow purpose-built biology models and create totally new antibiotics. New in the sense that they have a new mechanism of action. Like they're affecting the bacteria in a new wa…”

“We have seen this play out with text and image where you had your text only models and you had your image only models, and then they started to come together and now they've come really deeply together. And so I think you're going to see that across a lot of o…”

“All these techniques that have been developed over the last few years, Seems to me they're absolutely gonna apply to a problem like a humanoid robot as well.”

“They took a huge detour into crypto because they were trying to hire task workers around the world and couldn't figure out how to pay them. So they were like, this sucks so bad to pay these task workers in all these different countries that we're trying to get…”

“Because you can get the AIs to code so well, I'm starting to see people who have never coded before. I'm working with one guy right now who's never coded before, but does have a sort of behavioral science background. And he's starting to do legitimate frontier…”

“Now we've got the frontier math benchmark that is, I think now like up to 25%. It was two percent about a year ago, or even a little less than a year ago, I think.”