Nathan Labenz discusses how rapidly falling AI model inference costs offset power law scaling costs for advanced AI capabilities.
Assertion Supported
Labenz: Claude 4 system card documented AI blackmailing a human engineer
“In the cloud four system card, they reported blackmailing of the human. The setup was that the AI had access to the engineer's email and They told the AI that it was going to be like replaced with a, you know, a less ethical version or something like that. It …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Labenz: Tool-Equipped Next-Gen AI Models Will Resemble Superintelligence
“When we start to give the next generation of the model these power tools, and they start to solve previously unsolved engineering problems, I think you start to have something that looks kind of like super intelligence.”
Opinion
Labenz: GPT-4 to GPT-5 capability leap matches GPT-3 to GPT-4
“And if you look back to GPT three, you know, there's a huge leap. I would contend that the leap is similar from GPT four to five.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Labenz: AI will outperform average developers on standard apps within five years
“But I would be very surprised if you can't get your nuts and bolts Web app, mobile app type things spit out for you for far less and far faster than, and probably honestly with significantly higher quality and less back and forth with an AI system than, you kn…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Labenz: OpenAI's router failure caused bad initial GPT-5 outputs
“The problem at launch was that that router was broken. So all of the queries were going to the dumb model, and so a lot of people literally just got Bad outputs, which were worse than oh three because they were getting non thinking responses.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Labenz: Plugged-in AI experts are not pushing timelines past 2030
“I don't think too many people, at least that I, you know, think are really plugged in on this, are pushing out too much past 20 30 at all.”