The Ledger, every show

“I think the response is going to be President Trump saying, I was actually going for five to 10% across the board of tariffs, not 40%. Once the market sniffs that out, I think it's very dangerous to be overly bearish on risk assets.”

“Europe is going to be absolutely drowned in its tsunami wave of LNG supply that will crash on its shores over the next two years. This whole deindustrialization debate is wrong.”

“So I think that China has peaked as a geopolitical power for the next decade.”

“I'm in a camp that says they're going to fail. They're not going to be able to do it, and they're going to remain as export dependent, if not more.”

“Which means that over the next decade, China will also be in a current account deficit.”

“There's a view out there that this will help NATO unity. And I really don't think so, Ted. I think that this will actually cleave the Western alliance further.”

“I think we can easily be at 7000 SPX by 2024.”

“I just think that we're going to enter a period where stroke of pen risk is very high. And I don't think it's going to cause a collapse in prices, but I think this may be the apex and it's all downhill from here.”

“They're gonna struggle to bring the tenure substantively below four percent. I think three and a half is the best they could hope for, and that's just not enough, really, to restart some sort of re-leveraging of the private sector because American households d…”

“I think if he gets a deal with China, which I think he will, I don't think that's good for US assets relative to the rest of the world.”

“That's why I think we probably reached the bottom at 4800.”

“And then you're going to start talking about embargoes of commodities, both self-imposed by Russia and perhaps imposed by the West. And then you're talking about inflationary impacts of this conflict being something akin to the 1973 Yom Kippur War, which is de…”

“I think the That is extremely sensitive to the political risks domestically in the U S and they will not look to curb inflation at the risk of recession. I don't think they will, but I'm in that camp.”

“There's basically no way that we will not get an Iran deal.”

“So if you look at household debt as percent of disposable income in China, it's higher than that of the U.S.”

“I do think strategic China will be the space where investors will have returns provided that it is legal for them to do that.”

“China's trying its best to get to those sophisticated levels below five nanometer chip level, which it can't. And I think it's going to take a long time for them to do that. Much longer than people think. There's no Moore's law in getting to that level. And so…”

“As I said, I think China is going to be very cautious. I think for China, this is not the moment To create a huge downside risk to its economy.”

“I think what it means Is Europe is going to remilitarize. If you have the mandate on the ESG side, buy some European defense stocks, but don't expect it to do so within the US umbrella. And I think that European integration is actually going to be one of the c…”

“We are at a cusp of a commodity super cycle, and a recession could obviously curtail that. It would waylay it, but not for a significant period of time.”

“Because if Biden or Trump wins from a macro perspective, I think dollars going down, I think ten-year yields are going up. I think U.S. Equities are going to do well, but I think global equities are going to do better. Commodities are also going to do extremel…”

“Eventually American policymakers realize this is a constraint, this is a huge constraint, that they cannot sever their economic relationship from China, because if they do, somebody else will pick up the benefits, the revenues.”

“You've got the House and the Senate talking about taking away tariff rights from President Trump. It's not going to happen, but they're talking.”

“There are two macro hedge funds dedicated to emerging markets today. Two of them. There's none doing commodities.”

“If you just look at asset performance in January, February, and March, that is the truth. If you're a long-term capital allocator, go back, look at the performance January, February, March. That's the truth. You see who the winners and losers are, and that I t…”

“You have the green energy agenda, which I don't think is going to be reversed in a substantive way, despite the costs.”

“US and China are the only two countries that had this web two point O revolution. Europe doesn't have social media companies. Japan missed it completely.”

“I think both of them are likely to pursue very similar policies that keep fiscal thrust, the G in the GDP equation, at a much elevated level than the last cycle for sure.”

“I think there is a rotation that would have to happen and it could be quite painful. So rotation out of the big tech sector that's obviously benefited from low rate environment for a very long time into more value sector. That, that rotation is unlikely to be …”

“I think a lot of these big tech companies are still being priced in for a global TAM, which they will not get. And they won't get it, not because China, like, bans them. But because I think every economic region, every major economy has an incentive to impose …”

“So the yield divergence between US and China is going to favor carry trades in China because they're adopting far less stimulative policies.”

“There's a good chance that legislators started looking into this, and I think that that's going to cause a shift in allocation to much more smaller players into private space, more VC investments, and other more exotic strategies that don't rely on kind of rol…”

“I think there's a lot of upside potential in oil markets, and that's both because there's this risk, upside risk to oil prices of a Trump victory”

“And so I think if Trump wins again, they see the writing on the wall, and I don't think they're gonna reach out by thinking of, oh, let's negotiate with the U.S.”

“In negotiations, look, I think the odds are that we do get some sort of deal, likely a deal on a skeleton that they will then negotiate through twenty-twenty-one.”

“And so I think the consequences of even what people will hail as a successful conclusion to the negotiations, I think even the consequences of that would probably be negative for the UK economy.”

“And it's a environment in which the frequency of geopolitical conflict is going to be higher.”

“Russia has built up a massive current account surplus, biggest since 2006. Their FX reserves are five hundred fifty billion. They've rebuilt them since 2014.”

“Only about 25, 30% of Russians would want to be in a single state. And vast majority of Russians, 80%, according to some of the polls I've seen, expected there not to be a war.”

“In my book, I literally have that table that goes through every conflict ever, and every single one of them, Ted, was a buying opportunity, except for the Yom Kippur war.”

“Look, right now, from what we understand at Clocktower, the allocation to China is about two percent. For real money allocators, and it's like 20, 25% of global economy.”

“And we saw a hundred basis point cut in the Fed funds rate, and a hundred basis point moving the yields higher, which hadn't happened since the eighties.”

“Households have made 10 trillion dollars in real estate over the last five years, and if you get yields down, not only would they start buying homes again, but they might dip into that home equity through HELOCs.”

“I think it's far fetched that Russia stops exporting oil or that the rest of the world embargoes it, but palladium, they produce 47% of global supply.”