The Ledger, every show

“Who's going to buy all these bonds that the United States is selling in 2023, 20 24, 2025 with a rising budget deficit before the recession comes? And my answer is everybody. Everybody. You give people the right incentive, the right coupon, they will buy it.”

“And yet the facts are that if you and I, Ted, decide we're going to buy some listed asset today, well, we're going to be five to 10% of the turnover. Because the way the world works today is that the flow is dominated by the machines, and that's not a criticis…”

“That over the next several years, average inflation would turn out to be higher than in at least the 10 years prior to say, twenty-twenty. That would be my best guess.”

“I think there's a good chance that we have the bare bones of a deal, if you will, about the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union. I think we have the bare bones of a deal by the summer.”

“How Japanese institutions are lending their dollars in a much greater scale, which is lubricating global money markets and increasing the float of dollars.”

“So we're told for years that all these Chinese property companies and Chinese corporations are borrowed in dollars. If the dollar goes up and the Fed tightens policy, they're in, in a world of pain. And this young man managing a Chinese bank balance sheet in B…”

“So Fed funds doesn't get to 525 basis points like it did in O six. It gets to something like, oh, let's say, 300, which I think would surprise some people if we got there, but that's where I think it's the minimum.”

“And then when we compare Historical episodes of US households being overextended, not just with mortgages, but with credit cards and everything else. They're in very good shape compared to any time, certainly in the past 20 years in terms of credit card borrow…”

“Something that's still little commented on today is that the Fed provided a bridge loan to the tune of two hundred and twelve billion dollars to the FDIC's bad bank.”

“But as we get into the back end of 2023, my best guess is no later than early fourth quarter. That's a guess. The cumulative impact of hikes starts to bite. The consumer starts to retrench a little. Continuing claims are heading up. The labor market keeps soft…”

“The Reserve Bank of Australia, as they have acknowledged and admitted and apologized for, which is unprecedented, made a mistake Coming through COVID by saying that we do not expect to raise policy rates for three years.”

“There is a negotiation underway, which could take some time to see whether Australian critical minerals producers could be approved by Congress for participation in US defense procurement. That would be an enormous development”

“What US Treasury learned in 2014 is that if you put Gazprom Bank on the sanctions list, you break energy payment trails everywhere. Because Gazprom Bank is the key intermediary, or has been, the key intermediary for all sorts of global payments from global ene…”

“And all in all, I might run that position for four or five years, 40 to 50 times levered. And I know that sounds extreme. But that's what people do.”

“The CDOs were non-mark to market vehicles unless and until they were downgraded. And once they were downgraded, it was price discovery free for all. And that was the end of it. That was the point of no return.”

“You would think based on that observation, the probability is higher that in 2018 and 2019, the US economy will run a bit hotter than it has done over the past several years.”

“Whether it be passive money or active money, over the next several years, there will be increasing allocations to Chinese onshore equities, and that's not going to go away.”

“As you look at the seven big disinflations in the United States since 1951, the end of the Treasury Fed Accord, those big disinflations only occurred unsurprisingly When the real Fed funds rate or predecessor equivalents were notably positive, which makes a lo…”

“I think in the 10 years to 20 17, Ted, when I looked it up, US shale companies blew through about three hundred billion of capital.”

“And how are politicians going to assist households with that energy shock, which they hope is a one-off? And the answer is probably more fiscal spending. More transfers to households, and that conversation is already underway.”

“Total, gigantic European energy company, well run, good shape, now one of the world's largest forestry businesses.”

“UK private banks and high net worth individuals are falling over themselves to buy gilts. Yeah, quite shocking, right? Very simple reason. Gilts are the munis of sovereign debt. We all know about the tax attractiveness of muni bonds in the US, but gilts, there…”

“In European recessions, and we've had a couple of them over the past decade or so, European financial stocks tend to drop anywhere between 40 and 45%, in some cases a lot more.”

“Eligible banks can borrow up to two trillion euros in total from the ECB at -75 basis points.”

“In the second half of last year, Sam Zell and his friend Tom Barrack got together to build a portfolio of distressed energy assets.”