The Ledger, every show
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks, across all 44 shows. Pick shows below, then mix any filter with any other.
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Somerville: VC managers with most aggressive TVPI valuations need capital most
“And the ones that are the most aggressive in TVPI carrying value Are the ones that need the capital the most versus the ones that have been more conservative.”
Somerville: Generational Friction Will Cause Increased Infighting in VC Partnerships
“I think what you're gonna end up having happen is increased infighting in a lot of groups, because you have older GPs that have done very well that are staying on longer than they ever expected just because they're going to be needed to get funds raised in the…”
Somerville: Mainstream generalist growth funds are absent from crypto
“I mean, specific to the crypto side, the only potentially interesting thing there is no mainstream generalist money at the growth stage investing in that category. So the people that will be coming in and supporting those companies are the crypto native folks.”
Somerville: Company secondary buyers lacking management relationships will get burned
“A lot of people that look at company secondaries Don't have a relationship with the management of these companies and don't get full information. So they're actually buying in a very imperfect way with not a lot of granularity on what actually the company is d…”
Somerville: No Tech IPOs Will Occur in the Next Two Years
“Company side, people, I think, think of a little bit differently philosophically, but at the same time, they know that there's not going to be an IPO in the next two years, and A lot of those constituents are smaller, they're high net worths, they're individua…”
Somerville: International and Middle East LPs Will Increasingly Fund Growth Venture
“I do. I think there will be a lot higher level of international participation and particularly in the growth funds just because on the growth side, you know, if you want to write a 50 to a hundred million dollar check, I mean, even in the early stage funds, if…”
Somerville: VC Asset Valuation Methodology Is Permanently Changed
“I never thought valuation policy would change as much as it did have public comp reliance option pricing modeling inserted, broad scale discretionary markdowns. I just think how people will value these assets has probably been forever changed on a go forward b…”
Somerville: Rapid 2020-2021 VC Deployments Face Multi-Vintage Returns Crisis
“You're not going to provide any vintage or diversification, and those funds will probably end up being challenged if they were concentrated in, in parts of, like, 20, 21, and you didn't smooth it out enough, and if you manage to do two or three funds within a …”
Somerville: Micro VC funds will face harder fundraising as LP market saturates
“It will increasingly become harder to raise subsequent iterations or to scale, and I think you've started to see that with even some groups that have a track record now and have done a pretty decent job struggling to find new LPs on the institutional side to c…”
StepStone: Venture funds have marked down portfolios by 15% to 20%
“I think we looked on average funds have come down around 19% on the venture side somewhere between 15 and 20, I would say, is, is what we've typically seen.”
Somerville: DPI will become crucial as LPs struggle to evaluate true TVPI
“Showing DPI is going to become more and more important. Mostly because LPs will struggle to evaluate what true TVPI is”
Somerville: Many secondary funds rely on cold calls to former employees
“What many other direct secondary funds are doing are cold calling departed employees or reaching out to people that they know need to sell and are really relying on their own point of view of the company instead of ongoing information and monitoring.”
Somerville: Secondaries Will Be Essential for Early-Stage VC Liquidity
“And as a result of that, and as a result of the limited liquidity options, the secondary part of venture is going to be very significant for a long period of time. And I think pretty interesting and also a compliment from a duration standpoint If you're doing …”
Somerville: Series A funds increasingly preempt Series B rounds for top winners
“And while you're not seeing a proliferation of new B round focus groups, Back to our discussion five minutes ago, you're seeing the A round groups increasingly look to preempt and build bigger positions in their winners, or look for flexible partners that allo…”
Somerville: Median fund performance across the venture capital industry is bad
“And we all know that the median performance within venture is not good. It's actually bad.”
Venture-backed tech companies will remain private for 10 to 12 years
“These companies are going to be private for, you know, 10 to 12 years instead of like eight.”
VC spinouts are currently paused as LPs pull back on new managers
“Right now what I'm seeing is probably more of like a festering kind of situation because it's pretty difficult to spin out and start your own firm right now. You know, people who may want to do that are just going to choose to wait because LPs aren't adding a …”
Undercompensated junior VC partners will leave their firms once fundraising conditions improve
“At some point when it becomes easier to raise, all these people that have been doing this aren't going to stay.”
Somerville: Depressed IPO and M&A markets force creative secondary liquidity
“And particularly in an environment like the one we have now, where other liquidity options are more limited. You're not seeing companies go public, you're not seeing strategic M&A as a robust of a clip, and so they need to think more creatively about getting l…”
Somerville: VC managers are taking proactive discretionary markdowns for the first time
“I have been surprised and happily so that people have taken discretionary markdowns more proactively for the first time in, in my history of doing this.”
Somerville: Family offices and corporate pensions are seeking secondary market sales
“I mean, we're seeing family offices that were overly adventurous in this category need to sell we're seeing corporate pensions similarly looking to sell, so it's not just specific to them.”
Somerville: LPs will downsize fund commitments rather than abandon top managers
“I think what you'll see is smaller investment sizes in the managers that they like. In the ones they really like, they'll just stay the same instead of growing. And in the ones that are on the fringe or in their, you know, respective penalty boxes, as you may …”
Somerville: Growth Funds with Capital Are Currently Not Deploying It
“Most of what I've seen from growth funds and late stage funds, or even if they have the capital, they're not actually deploying it.”
Somerville: Massive venture valuation step-ups won't return near-term
“I don't think you're going to see massive upticks like we saw before where companies were raising it, you know, two X last round after six to nine months. I think we're not close to that environment nor will be in the near to medium term, but”
Somerville: VC Will See More GP-Led Restructurings Through 2025
“Venture is always slower to adopt some of these structures and I think we'll see a lot more of it in the second half of this year and the following two years.”
Somerville: LPs will demand fees on invested, not committed, growth capital
“For more branded, more established groups, I think there'll be more of a focus, particularly in the growth funds around invested capital instead of committed just because of the uncertainty of deployment and when that capital goes out the door, I think that wi…”
Somerville: Venture capital will re-concentrate focus on the US over emerging markets
“I think it depends on the region, but yes, I think there will be more of a re-emphasis on the US but certain, certain areas like people are much more excited about India and there continues to be interest in investing there.”
Hunter Somerville: Very few new VC funds launch directly as large Series A funds
“You just do not see a lot of new funds that emerge that want to do 200 to four hundred million dollar fund focused on A and start with that initially.”
Somerville: Creation of new Series A venture firms is static or declining
“And we actually had a slide at our annual meeting, and surprisingly enough, the number of A-round firms that come into existence has been rather static to slightly down.”
Somerville: Future Series A VC firms will predominantly originate from micro VC funds
“And so I do think the ones that choose to compete in that category will do so, for the most part, coming out of seed micro as a beginning point.”
Somerville: Venture funds face scaling limits unlike buyout and growth equity
“Yeah, I mean, I think within venture, there's still limits to scaling that you don't see in large growth equity or in elements of buyout. I think there still is a limit You don't see a ton of multi-billion dollar funds, and even the funds that are above a bill…”
Somerville: Venture firms will continue raising opportunity and select growth funds
“Then you will see the continued emergence and raising of opportunity select and growth funds, and to the extent that those are backing companies that they're already in and building bigger positions behind it as a life cycle partner, I think it very much can m…”
Somerville: There is a shortage of dedicated Series B VC investors
“Yeah, I think there's definitely a shortage of dedicated B round investors.”
Somerville: Fund lifespans will extend as companies remain private longer
“Going back to companies staying private longer, that means that the life of funds will also stay in existence longer, and LPs of all different varieties have different tolerance for illiquidity and desire to stay into a fund into years. 10 to 15”
StepStone manages relationships with over 200 venture and growth managers
“So in order to fully answer that, you know, we have to factor in what we do on the discretionary side of our business, and then also what we do in separate account and advisory work. And that number of venture growth managers is over 200 at this point.”
Somerville: Single 2021 Quarters Outpaced All 2022 VC Liquidity
“Twenty-twenty-one had quarters that exceeded all of twenty-twenty-two from a liquidity standpoint”
Somerville: Venture secondary discounts reached 12% in 2021 and 34% in 2022
“The average discount to venture ticked up as high as just 12% in 2021, so quite low overall, but if you were to fast forward that forward to 2022, it's back down at an industry level to 34%”