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ALL-IN Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2031
Lutnick: US tariff revenues will grow from $500B to $1T per year
“And then you have the tariffs are five hundred billion a year now, and they will grow over time to a trillion a year”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 34:38 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
ALL-IN Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lutnick predicts US GDP growth will reach 5% in early 2026
“They could be this quarter, as in the first quarter, so then I'd say, well, you have to come back and see me when it's through five, but then you'll come back in a couple of months, and then you'd say, Howard, I just spoke to you for an hour. I don't, you know…”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 1:07:35 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
ALL-IN Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2027
Lutnick predicts 6% US GDP growth if Fed cuts interest rates
“And then if they cut rates, and that's the thing, I need a new Fed chair who cuts rates, and if they cut rates... You'll see sixes.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 1:07:51 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
TBPN Assertion Supported
Lutnick: US government will acquire a 9.9% equity stake in Intel
“And at three o'clock, we're going to sign the document together in the Oval Office, where the United States of America will own 9.9% of the great American technology company Intel.”
Howard Lutnick Aug 30, 2025 ▶ 3:09 Weekly Recap: Taylor Swift Gets Engaged, SpaceX Launches Falcon 9, Dr. Drew
ALL-IN Disclosure
Lutnick: Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are building U.S. government software for free
“I go to the heads of Google and Microsoft and Amazon. They're all For America. Building for us. Right. For free. Right. To make America better.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 1:18:40 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lutnick attributes newborn hepatitis B vaccine mandates to government corruption
“You know what it is? You know what the answer is? Corruption. That someone in the government got paid to put that in the rules.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 1:35:55 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Lutnick: Japan committed $550B to finance US infrastructure projects
“So what we came up with was Five hundred and fifty billion dollars. That this is not foreign direct investment. This is not Toyota building a factory in America. This is, they literally will finance Any project we want to build in America, as long as it's like…”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 31:43 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Lutnick: Tariff revenues fund proposed tax exemptions on tips and Social Security
“Who paid for no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on social security. Right? Tariffs.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 35:18 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Lutnick: Ozempic and Mounjaro added to Medicare and Medicaid for $149
“So, the result is Ozempic and Munjara are on Medicaid and Medicare. For a hundred and 49 dollars instead of not on it.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 48:54 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Lutnick: Merck agreed to offer top drug free to Medicare and Medicaid
“One of the drug companies, Merck, said they're gonna just give us their number one drug in the world. They're gonna give it to Medicaid and Medicare for zero.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 49:35 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
ALL-IN Opinion
Lutnick: H-1B visas should target $500k engineers, not $60k graduates
“Yeah, I mean, look, I think H-B is fantastic for someone who makes 500,000 dollars who's a cool engineer. But it's not ok if it's a 60,000 dollar college graduate.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 57:41 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Lutnick: TSMC agreed to increase US investment from $60B to $160B
“So instead of building sixty billion, you build a hundred and sixty billion. And we agreed.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 1:14:24 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lutnick: 6% GDP growth will fix the federal deficit and taxes
“Imagine if you grow six percent. You're gonna fix the deficit. You're gonna fix taxes. You're gonna fix all.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 1:23:10 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Lutnick: Japan committed $550 billion to finance U.S. infrastructure
“So they've committed five hundred and fifty billion dollars to finance Projects in America that are important to the president and to American infrastructure.”
Howard Lutnick Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 36:16 Winning the AI Race Part 4: Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Chris Wright, and Doug Burgum
ALL-IN Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2030
Lutnick: US can cut $1T in spending and gain $1T through tariffs
“I think we're gonna cut a trillion dollars a year in expense, and then I think we can, through tariffs and other means, we're gonna get revenues of a trillion dollars.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 22:02 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lutnick: US national balance sheet is worth $500 trillion
“What's our balance sheet worth? I say 500 trillion dollars. The president says a quadrillion. But at 500 trillion or quadrillion, 36 trillion? We're rich.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 43:12 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Lutnick: Federal government inflates pre-election GDP with spending spikes
“And I'm going to break it out for the last 20 years. And what you're going to see is, Every time the quarter just before an election, all the government spending happens right then and there. It's all of a sudden you have this jump in GDP. Right. Total lie. To…”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 47:46 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Lutnick: $200 billion in PPP funds went to Chinese fraud gangs
“So it was proven that two hundred billion of the 1.2 trillion was going to Chinese Fraud gangs.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 50:02 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Lutnick: No country practices free trade and US is the least protective
“There is no country in this world that is free trade. Zero. And we are the lowest and the dumbest, because everybody else is higher and more protective.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 1:02:05 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Lutnick: Tariffs drove $2 trillion of committed domestic production to US
“Two trillion dollars of committed domestic production coming back because of his tariffs.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 1:05:32 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lutnick: Eliminating income taxes on workers will bring labor costs down
“Labor costs come smashing down because it's tax-free. So if their earnings are tax-free, right, then they're happy to work because they get the money. So what happens is cost of labor comes down because we're run correctly as a government.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 1:10:19 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lutnick says he sold 1,000 $5M investor visas in one day
“And by the way, ah, yesterday I sold a thousand.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 1:11:27 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
ALL-IN Opinion
Lutnick: Chinese AI apps should be banned, but open-source code permitted
“And I don't think we should be having apps in America. And I don't think we should have their website in America because they all go back home. Ok, but it's open source and I want our American companies including college students to be able to download it and …”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 1:19:48 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Lutnick: Commerce Department headcount dropped from 52,000 to 40,000
“In the beginning, we cut, you know, 20%. Like, I walked in the door here with 52,000 people in this department, and now there's 40,000 people in this department.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 5:24 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Lutnick: Foreign entities net-own $26 trillion in US assets as of 2024
“Fast forward to 20 24, 20 six trillion the other way. They own 26 trillion of us. More, more than we own of them.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 16:02 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
ALL-IN Disclosure
Lutnick: Trump administration selected a country-specific tariff model over universal rates
“But we settled on A country specific model. Much more complex, much more difficult, but much more nuanced, much more clever and much tougher.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 18:59 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
ALL-IN Disclosure
Lutnick: Trump intends to maintain the Social Security retirement age at 65
“The richest country in the world should be able to give people retirement at 65. We shouldn't change a darn thing, and that is his thinking.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 36:38 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lutnick: Trump trade negotiations follow a 'staircase' model favoring early deals
“And President Trump does deals like a staircase. First stair gets the best deal. You can't get the best deal after the first guy went.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 38:00 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Lutnick: Drug companies generate 100% of profits in the US
“These drug companies make 75% of their revenues in America, and it's a hundred percent of their profits.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 44:27 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
ALL-IN Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Lutnick: Average green card recipient earned in the $40,000s versus $60,000s for average Americans
“So the average green card, if you looked for the last five years, the average American makes in the sixties, a thousand dollars a year, and the average green card recipient made in the forties.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 55:54 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Lutnick: Trump administration sold $1B in Gold Card visas in first week
“No, the president the first week put out that we had sold a billion dollars worth.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 57:08 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lutnick: Federal furloughs will reduce Q4 GDP growth by 150 basis points
“So our fourth quarter GDP will be a point and a half lower than it otherwise would be for this oddity.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 1:05:34 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
ALL-IN Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lutnick predicts Q4 US GDP growth near 2.5%, defying consensus forecasts
“Yeah, so it'll be like the common economists think the fourth quarter growth is going to be a point, ok? They're just like, wrong. I said they were wrong in the third quarter. I said they were wrong in the second quarter. We have a 3.8 and then 4.3. It'll prob…”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 1:05:44 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
ALL-IN Disclosure
Lutnick: Nvidia must send chips to US for government testing
“So the way we're doing it is he has to send the chips to America. We test the chip to make sure that he hasn't enhanced it in any way.”
Howard Lutnick Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 1:17:39 Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Lutnick: U.S.-Japan infrastructure deal splits project profits 90% to 10%
“We could do anything, and they will finance it, and we split the profits of the project, 90% for America, and 10% for Japan.”
Howard Lutnick Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 36:36 Winning the AI Race Part 4: Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Chris Wright, and Doug Burgum
ALL-IN Disclosure
Lutnick: U.S. sovereign wealth fund will invest after paying off deficit
“We do a sovereign wealth fund that invests when we've done paying off our deficit, right? First, we got to pay off our deficit before we're trying to make money.”
Howard Lutnick Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 37:20 Winning the AI Race Part 4: Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Chris Wright, and Doug Burgum
ALL-IN Prediction Partly held up
Lutnick: Unsettled trade negotiations will trigger higher tariffs on August 1st
“Okay, so on August first, whatever hasn't been settled will be settled. You get the tariffs go into effect, right? So all this 10%, they'll all just pop up to some higher number.”
Howard Lutnick Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 41:53 Winning the AI Race Part 4: Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Chris Wright, and Doug Burgum
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lutnick: Trump supports TikTok surviving if wholly American-owned and operated
“Well, the president is reasonably positive about tick tock, provided it goes into American hands. And it's controlled by American technology, right? I think that's his view, is that they've got to be out of it. It's got to be on an American technology stack, a…”
Howard Lutnick Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 46:04 Winning the AI Race Part 4: Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Chris Wright, and Doug Burgum
ALL-IN Prediction Held up
Lutnick predicts an American buyer will acquire TikTok over a shutdown
“I think that deal will happen, and America will buy TikTok, because the alternative is It just shuts it off, and that just seems illogical.”
Howard Lutnick Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 46:34 Winning the AI Race Part 4: Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Chris Wright, and Doug Burgum
ALL-IN Disclosure
Lutnick: U.S. allows allied AI chip clusters if American-operated
“We are comfortable with allies buying significant numbers of chips, right, and having a large cluster, provided that cluster is operated by an American, a trusted American operator, and the cloud is a trusted American operator, so that we know that giant clust…”
Howard Lutnick Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 47:15 Winning the AI Race Part 4: Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Chris Wright, and Doug Burgum
ALL-IN Assertion Supported
Lutnick: Chinese deep-water ports sit at both ends of Panama Canal
“The mouth that's east. Is a deep water port by the Chinese. The mouth that's West is a deep water port by the Chinese.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 4:45 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lutnick: Trump makes decisions by 'orchestra,' not the last person speaking
“The way President Trump works, he makes decisions by orchestra. He likes lots of views and opinions. He likes them. And anybody who says, oh, the last person who sees him gets him, that's because they don't know him at all.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 31:23 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
ALL-IN Disclosure
Lutnick: Trump transition team had Pam Bondi lined up as AG backup
“If it's not, we have Pam right here, right now.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 36:28 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
ALL-IN Insight
Lutnick: Stopping payments is the easiest way to identify fraudsters
“And if all the guys who did PayPal, like Elon knows this by heart, right? Anybody who's been in the payment system and the process system knows the easiest way to find the fraudster is to stop payments and listen.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 42:00 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
ALL-IN Assertion Contradicted
Howard Lutnick: Kuwait has the highest tariffs against the United States
“The number one country with the highest tariffs against the United States of America, Kuwait.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 55:21 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Lutnick: India has a 50% average tariff while the US averages 4%
“India has a 50% tariff on average. 50. We have on average four.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 57:58 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
ALL-IN Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lutnick: 37 million people globally can afford $5M investor visa
“There are thirty-seven million people in the world who are capable of buying the card.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 1:13:26 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
ALL-IN Assertion Partly supported
Lutnick: Elon Musk is building U.S. customs software
“He's building it.”
Howard Lutnick Mar 20, 2025 ▶ 1:14:48 Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
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