The Ledger, every show

“Elon, Sam, Ilya, and I all agreed. That the only path forward for OpenAI, the only path to achieve the mission, was to create a for-profit entity associated with OpenAI of some form. And so we were committed to that direction, and that is something that we kne…”

“Today we announced that our model had solved the Navier-Stokes problem that we found a counter-example or a sort of proof that you can actually that these theoretical equations do have a singularity or kind of breakdown under Certain circumstances.”

“These models are now solving unsolved math problems and physics problems, right? Really helping people be able to achieve things they couldn't otherwise.”

“I was told that the board has decided That Sam would be removed, and effectively the message that I got was the same messaging that was in the public post, and I asked if I could have any more information. I was told no, not right now, and I pressed on that ma…”

“And I think that we have definitively answered that question of it's, it is going to go to AGI. Like we see line of sight and that it is at this point, we have line of sight to these much better models that are coming this year.”

“I think it's extremely clear that we are going to have AGI within the next couple years in a way that is still going to be jagged, but that the floor of task will just be almost for any intellectual task of how you use your computer. The AI will be able to do …”

“These models are now solving unsolved math problems and physics problems, right?”

“If you look at math and physics, we now are solving open math problems. We're solving Open physics problems and actually have resolved this particular physics problem recently in quantum physics in the opposite way that the community expected.”

“Like a good example is data centers and water usage. Like that, that's something that people talk about a lot, but actually our data centers use incredibly little water, right? That's actually misinformation that they use a lot.”

“I think that what we have seen is that for other players, that they kind of realized that probably late last year and started scrambling to see what compute is available, and there really wasn't any”

“And I think that what that's going to unlock is you're going to be able to scale up these models and you're going to see qualitatively different behaviors from what you've seen so far.”

“If you look at how many people use Chat for Health, three hundred million people every single week. With health queries, right?”

“I do think there's a bit of an attractor state where just like from a business model perspective, every provider sells out all their compute. Right. I think that is just like the world that we're heading towards, where there just is not going to be enough comp…”

“I think frontier intelligence will always be something that is going to be, you know, it's always going to be the priciest thing. But I think that a year from now, that level of intelligence is going to feel pretty mundane and like, you know, going to be much …”

“I do think there's a bit of an attractor state where just like from a business model perspective, every provider sells out all their compute. I think that is just like the world that we're heading towards, where there just is not going to be enough compute to …”

“And again, I think it's going to keep happening where because everyone has this avalanche of demand that you're going to see prices and margins and all of these things continuing to increase at various levels of the stack.”

“The fact that it's now really crossed the threshold of usefulness for general kinds of applications, and so it's much better at creating slides, spreadsheets, much better at computer use, using your browser, being able to kind of click through applications tha…”

“Still not enough. We're gonna feel the scarcity. We're gonna feel it. We're feeling it already. You can sense it right now on people who are trying to use these agents and just simply cannot, you know, hitting the rate limits. So we're working on behalf of our…”

“And we're going to be hitting a phase soon where the AI will also come up with its own research ideas and test those out, run experiments.”

“It's hard to know what percent of the code is not written by AI. It's a vanishing fraction. The actual Writing of code. Currently, the AI is much better than humans at writing code, given the right context, given the right structure. Now there's parts of the a…”

“We've actually gone through an evolution of how we train the models to user preferences, and that we've seen that at one point, like last year, that the models really did start to lean into telling you what you wanted to hear, saying, oh, that's such a great a…”

“I would say that we, in general, are heading to a compute-constrained world.”

“I think that this kind of thing happening this year is not out of the question.”

“We're all going to be heading to a world where we're managers of agents and soon maybe The CEO of an autonomous AI corporation, right?”

“We should be in a world, if we do our job right, where everyone gets access, has a doctor in their pocket that is better than any team of doctors today, the world's best doctors, they're there for you, they care about you, they're actually reading your charts,…”

“And when we look at the compute we have, we are not even gonna have enough compute to fund those two things.”

“We're going to see this real takeoff Of this technology and knowledge work over the next year.”

“We had this result recently where a physicist had been working on a problem for some time. He gave it to our model. 12 hours later, we have a solution, and he said this is the first time he's seen a model where he felt like he was thinking, that it felt like t…”

“The reason we're able to do that is because it's not actually on the world model, like diffusion model tech, tech branch. It's actually based on the GPT architecture, and so there, even though it's a different data distribution, the actual core technology at t…”

“I have a friend who used ChatGPT to understand different treatments for his cancer, and that he was told by doctors that he was terminal, that there was nothing they could do for him. He used ChatGPT to actually research a bunch of different ideas, and he was …”

“And at a practical level, I think I would view it as ex, is taking the full end to end of what one of our research scientists does and be able to do that in Silicon.”

“So new model races really went from the AI being able to do like, 20% of your tasks to like, 80%.”

“But it is all indicated by what's kind of working right now, certainly within a year, sometimes much sooner is going to be incredibly reliable.”

“The democratization of entrepreneurship is absolutely coming. And I'll say, here's these problems, there's this customer that's upset, you know, that they want to talk to a real human, like, you should go talk to them, like, all of that's going to happen.”

“That is going to happen in every single domain. It will happen in science, in math, in physics, in chemistry, it's going to happen in material science, it's going to happen in biology, it's going to happen in healthcare, drug discovery, but it may also even ha…”

“So I think that even with no further progress, there's still a massive shift that will happen. The economy being powered by compute and AI is still going to happen.”

“The highest order bit on how this economy grows from here will be about AI, how well you can leverage AI and the computational power you have available to power it.”

“And I think that we will see even this year, how everyone who is participating is going to be compute strapped.”

“Six months from now, I think that everyone will feel it. And I think that we will all feel the pain of there's an awesome model. And there's just no availability because there's not enough compute.”

“I think this will be the source of economic and national security going forward. I think it's going to be about national competitiveness and that there are other countries like China where AI pulls in the exact opposite direction.”

“If you actually look at our Abilene facility, which is one of, if not the biggest supercomputers in the world, the amount of water it uses Is the same as a household over the course of a year, right? So it's really negligible water use.”

“It's a hundred T synapses, which kind of corresponds to the weights of the neural net. And so there's some sort of equivalence there. And so we're starting to get to the right numbers. Let me just say that.”

“We've seen physicists starting to kick the tires on GPT-V and say that, like, hey, this thing was able to get, this model was able to re-derive an insight that took me many months worth of research to produce.”

“And so I think that the question of exactly how, you know, if you don't do work, do you survive? I think the answer will be yes. You'll have plenty of material, your material needs met. But I think the question of Can you do more? Can you have not just generat…”

“I think it's actually not AI researcher. The AI researcher will kind of go before. It's actually very interesting when you ask people this question. I think that everyone tends to say whatever their job is as well as the hardest one. But I actually think that …”

“We're now well over a billion users every week”

“That the market share of chat GPT is starting to climb once again, because we've been investing so hard in In so many use cases that are important for people in education and health and a variety of other areas.”

“What we were promised, if you were to rewind five, 10 years ago, is never a low-level language model that you have to think about context windows, and you have to select thinking strength, and you have to select different models, like none of that is the futur…”